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Retirees and others on S.S.D.I. got a COA in 2012. How do things stand for 2013 and 2014?
Well, if I live that long, since I have a small $50 a month pension that will hit my mailbox in mid 2013, I was trying to calculate my total income starting in Jan. 2014.
There was a COA of about 3.1% of 2012.
Do the inflation numbers tell how many years going forward, there will be a COA?
I'm just guessing, but I don't expect an increase in the coming year. The inflation that the government takes into consideration hasn't been much. They don't consider things that we actually use like food, gasoline, etc.
It's way too early to know. CPI on CNBC the other day was .2% for Feb. (2.4% annually), .3% for Mar (almost 3.6% annually). All I know is I am still on a cut, cut, cut tear. Got my property taxes reduced again the other day, third year in a row. So far, over three years, went from $7,500/yr to $5,500/year. I'll keep doing this as long as values continue to decline and the City is cooperative.
It's way too early to know. CPI on CNBC the other day was .2% for Feb. (2.4% annually), .3% for Mar (almost 3.6% annually). All I know is I am still on a cut, cut, cut tear. Got my property taxes reduced again the other day, third year in a row. So far, over three years, went from $7,500/yr to $5,500/year. I'll keep doing this as long as values continue to decline and the City is cooperative.
If I remember correctly, the inflation rate for this year, to cause a COA in Jan. 2013, has to be higher than last year's 3rd quarter inflation rate (?)
And if it is less, it means inflation went down along with prices.
Of course WE know, prices of goods is not going down.
If I remember correctly, the inflation rate for this year, to cause a COA in Jan. 2013, has to be higher than last year's 3rd quarter inflation rate (?)
And if it is less, it means inflation went down along with prices.
Of course WE know, prices of goods is not going down.
Here's the entire, very informative discussion we had on this issue last year, begun by you, Howard:
It is not only the third quarter. It is the twelve-month period between October 2011 and September 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadManofBethesda
The COLA can't be held hostage by one party because Congress does not vote on the amount of the COLA or whether one should be given. The Social Security Act provides for an automatic increase in Social Security benefits if there is an increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the last year a cost-of-living adjustment was determined (2008) to the third quarter of the current year. It is automatic.
Now Congress may at some future point amend the law to use a different index, but that's a different issue.
It is not only the third quarter. It is the twelve-month period between October 2011 and September 2012.
MadMan provided a great link last year, not working anymore, which described the progression of the CPI through the year. It changes monthly.
I watch the PPI and CPI data each month. This past month, released last week, had PPI at 0% (Producer Price Index).
From April 12th, this shows the March vs. February as well as March 2011 compared to March 2010.
Producer Price Index MoM 0.0% vs 0.3% Est; Prior 0.4% < (Feb.)
PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% Est; Prior 0.2%
Producer Price Index YoY 2.8% vs 3.1% Est; Prior 3.3%
PPI Ex Food & Energy 2.9% vs 2.8% Est; Prior 3.0%
What I do not remember, I guess because my memory is failing,
is what we compare the average CPI (from Oct. 2011 to Sept. 2012), what do we compare it to, to know if we get one.
Producer prices are directly correlated to what cost are passed down to the consumer.
From what I remember the CPI-W will hvae to be hgiher than the third quarter when COLA was lkast given. so 0211 third quarter.
You are the only one who got it right. No one else was even remotely close (even so, I wish you would be more attentive to spelling errors).
Lauding....
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555
I watch the PPI and CPI data each month.
Why? I cannot imagine engaging in a greater waste of time. I spend only 15 seconds per year to determine the COLA (if any). Well, maybe 17 seconds (it depends on how fast the spreadsheet downloads).
What will be the COLA for 2014?
There is no possible way to know at this point.
What will be the COLA for 2013?
There is no possible way to know that either, and anyone who tells you they know is full of crap, and you can bring them here to C-D so I can tell them to their face they are full of crap.
The CPI is never used to determine COLA, but the CPI-W is (and no, the CPI and CPI-U are not the same thing as the CPI-W).
CY11 3Q SA 0.16% NSA 0.2%
That's where you're at, and those are the numbers to beat, and there's no way to know at this point if the AVG CPI-W for CY12 3Q will be greater or less than that. Current CPI-W is never an indicator of future CPI-W. It could be SA -0.2% or even SA -2.1% (in which case there would be no COLA). Or it could be +1.0% (in which case there would be no COLA either).
Why watch? I cannot imagine engaging in a greater waste of time. I spend only 15 seconds per year to determine the COLA (if any).
Mircea
I don't watch it for the COA.
I own stocks in my retirement account and manage them myself.
I am watching all economic data released every day, every week.
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