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As I think about this topic again, I realize my big concerns about the future have nothing to do with stock market volatility or some sort of investment bubble. I am diversified and careful as an investor. My big concern is the Federal government. I need social security to cover a substantial chunk of my expenses. I don't have any earning potential so I need to see continued low inflation. To be near friends and relatives and have fall back support, I am living in a very high COL area. Taxes are a huge factor. My property taxes are as much as the average retiree gets from social security. I get by with splitting the house costs with my daughter and her family. I am especially concerned about income taxes. The democrats have moved so far to the left they are promising everything to everyone. There seems to be no idea of how to pay for any of the give away benefits. Bernie and now Hillary claim they will get the money from "Wall Street." I am sorry but that short section of concrete road is not made of gold. Then I understand the top fraction of a percent of Americans owns half of everything. I don't think we are ready to throw away the Constitution and confiscate those assets. No doubt about it the progressive giveaways will mean I end up paying a lot more in taxes. For a while I thought that Trump might win. I had no idea what that would mean but it seemed feasible. What has been coming out of Trump's mouth is now totally unbelievable. No way could he possibly be that stupid. I finally understand. He had a plan to push out all of the crazy right wing Republicans and is now in the process of completing his plan and will throw the election so the Democrats win.
^^^^^^^ Having a stalled three legged stool and almost nine years into retirement, I can tell you there are storm clouds on the horizon because of low interest rates. Pensions are suffering from minimal returns and the future ability to produce. Pension and SS cost of living increases are negligible and the effort to stoke returns from investments a challege. We have multiple margins of error and having delayed SS to 70 for me a real blessing. However I can easily see how others not as advantaged can become increasingly challenged especially as health care cost continue to rise and that won't change.
Fixed incomes don't equal a fixed lifestyle as that lifestyle can become more expensive on its own.
I am not at all concerned about low interest rates. I have not and do not plan on making major returns from bonds. Stocks and real estate still have major potential. If not, I should still be fine unless inflation and taxes take over. The Federal government seems to be headed in a direction that will increase both of those.
I am not at all concerned about low interest rates. I have not and do not plan on making major returns from bonds. Stocks and real estate still have major potential. If not, I should still be fine unless inflation and taxes take over. The Federal government seems to be headed in a direction that will increase both of those.
It isn't just you or just me, it is the collective impact low interest rates can have on a lot of things involving seniors. We in one way shape or form when we retire have income based on somebody else doing something to make money for us. Whether it be investing, annuities, SS, pensions, real estate. We are depending on others having the resources to bid up our assets or to provide a cash flow to our resources to pay out to us. When Met Life is spinning out their annuity business after it loss two billion dollars that's a head shaker that could impact more than just those with Met Life annuities. When Gen Worth has loss 2 billion dollars from its long term care policies that is a concern for more than just those with Genworth policies.
Investors have lost patience with MetLife. The reaction to Thursday’s earnings call—a 9% share selloff wiping out $4.3 billion in value—is stunning for a big, established insurer such as MetLife.
In the latest stumble, the company took a $2 billion charge to its variable annuity business in the second quarter.
The charge relates to MetLife’s retail operations, which it plans to soon split off though a sale, a spinoff or an...
"It's a tough environment for life insurers," said Brett Horn of Morningstar. "I don't know it was necessarily that great a surprise. I think a low interest [rate] environment hurts life insurers, and there's not necessarily any clear end in sight, and there's some frustration on the part of the market."
In preparation for the separation of its U.S. retail unit, MetLife reviewed its variable annuity product. The study prompted an increase in reserves, or a $2 billion charge, partly due to the increase of the percentage of policyholders who choose to withdraw funds rather than to accept MetLife's offer of a fixed income annuity.
Genworth Financial Inc. plans to separate its money-losing long-term care business and stop selling traditional life and fixed annuities as part of a cost-cutting move.
The Richmond, Va., company unveiled the plans Thursday as it reported a narrower fourth-quarter loss. Genworth estimated it will take a $15 million pretax restructuring charge in the current quarter related to the actions.
Shares, which have lost nearly two-thirds of their value over the past 12 months, dropped 16% to $2.35 in after-hours trading.
The insurer focuses on sales of long-term care insurance, which helps pay for such things as nursing-home and home-based health care. Insurers have been moving away from them as medical costs rise and policyholders live longer, requiring higher payouts, and lower interest rates weighed on investment returns.
We are dependent on others to help provide the financial base for others to develop and market services to us in our elderly years. Seniors other than just the two of us need to be able to afford private housing, health facilities etc in order for us to prosper and have services available to us.
I hope you don't really mean this. If continued low inflation is truly a need, it is time to develop a backup plan.
You need to share your insight and perspective more often. Over the years you have thought I was disagreeing with you when in reality I wasn't. I was sharing a different perspective that I more often than not didn't agree with. There are some really disturbing trends that will hurt a lot of people and they aren't being openly discussed and doing so can get you painted as advocating.
Black swans are by definition unpredictable but by inference drastically negative in its impact. We don't need to waste time and energy guessing what the trigger event is as it is probably different for everyone depending on your personal situation (unexpected health issue, death of spouse, sustained global market collapse etc).
The most effective way to prepare for a black swan is to simply engage in scenario planning. Think OUTSIDE the box. Imagine what for you is a black swan event and then conceptualize what actions you would take to mitigate its negative impact.
What troubles me most is the potential societal chaos that could be triggered by a major black swan event. It is easy for societies to move up the food chain as had been the case for the last few decades but regressing is usually accompanied by violence.
I currently live in a great covenant-restricted community which however is not gated. I plan to volunteer my services to get onto the management committee should I feel that we ought to gate off the 3 entrances to the community. I have also started to take mental notes of which neighbors are likely to be great resources in a crisis (ex military or medical personnel ).
Black swans are by definition unpredictable but by inference drastically negative in its impact. We don't need to waste time and energy guessing what the trigger event is as it is probably different for everyone depending on your personal situation (unexpected health issue, death of spouse, sustained global market collapse etc).
The most effective way to prepare for a black swan is to simply engage in scenario planning. Think OUTSIDE the box. Imagine what for you is a black swan event and then conceptualize what actions you would take to mitigate its negative impact.
What troubles me most is the potential societal chaos that could be triggered by a major black swan event. It is easy for societies to move up the food chain as had been the case for the last few decades but regressing is usually accompanied by violence.
I currently live in a great covenant-restricted community which however is not gated. I plan to volunteer my services to get onto the management committee should I feel that we ought to gate off the 3 entrances to the community. I have also started to take mental notes of which neighbors are likely to be great resources in a crisis (ex military or medical personnel ).
In part, unrest is why I am getting out of my current area. I think Indianapolis is a powder keg for racial strife and general unrest. I'm honestly surprised we aren't Baltimore.
The most effective way to prepare for a black swan is to simply engage in scenario planning. Think OUTSIDE the box. Imagine what for you is a black swan event and then conceptualize what actions you would take to mitigate its negative impact.
What troubles me most is the potential societal chaos that could be triggered by a major black swan event. It is easy for societies to move up the food chain as had been the case for the last few decades but regressing is usually accompanied by violence.
There's a spectrum of this. Survivalists are at one extreme on the spectrum. Personally, I don't see the point in planning for the zombie apocalypse or a Weimar Republic-style collapse. If my life's savings is wiped out, I'm in the same boat as 300+ million other Americans.
I have 7 more work years left. Most of my contingency planning revolves around either a health event where I can't ever work again or a very lengthy break in employment which kind of amounts to the same thing. My portfolio is quite conservative. A Great Recession-level 40% market correction would be a bit painful but it wouldn't destroy me.
In part, unrest is why I am getting out of my current area. I think Indianapolis is a powder keg for racial strife and general unrest. I'm honestly surprised we aren't Baltimore.
Do you realize Baltimore is surrounded by a number of the wealthiest counties in the country?
The Baltimore–Columbia–Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area, also known as Central Maryland, is a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in Maryland as defined by the United States Office of Management and Budget (OMB). As of the 2010 Census, the combined population of the seven counties is 2,710,489. The MSA has the fourth-highest median household income in the United States, at $66,970 in 2012.[2
The range of income within the seven counties is considerable.
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