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Im not the expert on this but think its an early hit followed by a slow recovery with no bull market to cause the dip to be a sharp V, that is a decline followed by a sharp recovery like we are seeing now after the great recession of 2008/2009. I think a long period of no growth is deadly too, that is what I recall the 1960s being like and it was one of those failure periods with out s sharp decline.
Those are my guesses for you, they are worth what you paid me for them lol
U-shaped recoveries are the most dangerous not V- shaped . the V-SHAPED 2008 one was not a big issue unless poor investor behavior made it one .
Mathjak--I see how you chose your name. So much math!
I retired almost 4 years ago after working part-time (could not get full-time)
so I have only a decent amount of assets, a very modest lifestyle
including necessary food (no dining out), non discretionary. Am okay as is UNLESS
I buy or rent a condo here or another state that may double my housing cost. I am okay
for about 10 years in future, then it becomes questionable--too many
ifs and possible changes may happen. That scares me thinking about it,
yet the status quo is so boring, predictable, stagnant, depressing..
My other dreams have been unfulfilled. This too?
I retired in 2010 and have been pulling about 4% out of my 401k each and every year. The experts told me I should be about 60% total stock market and 40% Total Bonds/Cash. The experts also told me that I should pull out about 4% each year from my retirement portfolio, based on my starting figure, and increase that amount each year 2-3% to cover inflation. I have been following the advice of these experts for almost 8 years.
Now after almost 8 years in retirement my starting million dollars in retirement savings in my 401k is now $1.7 million. (Due to the Bull Market.) Can I restart the clock and start pulling 4% out of my current 401k assets of 1.7 million (instead of my starting figure of One Million) now so I can spend more money and enjoy life more? What do the experts say?
Doing just that. It is 4% of your balance adjusted for common sense. Part of the reasons why Index investors will tell you that is to adjust for inflation assuming your portfolio is growing at that rate over a given time period. Other wise your income is not rising with inflation.
Mathjak--I see how you chose your name. So much math!
I retired almost 4 years ago after working part-time (could not get full-time)
so I have only a decent amount of assets, a very modest lifestyle
including necessary food (no dining out), non discretionary. Am okay as is UNLESS
I buy or rent a condo here or another state that may double my housing cost. I am okay
for about 10 years in future, then it becomes questionable--too many
ifs and possible changes may happen. That scares me thinking about it,
yet the status quo is so boring, predictable, stagnant, depressing..
My other dreams have been unfulfilled. This too?
Anyone feel this way?
You are not alone, if you stick around you will find that most of the posters are on both ends of the financial spectrum here. Me? I find myself in the middle.
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