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Old 04-10-2020, 03:30 AM
 
4,151 posts, read 3,925,915 times
Reputation: 10943

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
That's still significant.

I'm still working. The "weak link" team member got furloughed. I've been designated as in charge of more stuff. Job security, I guess, for now. We're projecting a $150 million operating loss over a 90 day period. That can't be kept up for long, and if it is, I won't have a job for more than another month or two. The economy has to reopen.

We're going to see an epidemic of suicides as the economic hardship deepens. I paid my mortgage up until August 1 today. Looking at my finances more closely this evening, sans unemployment or stimulus, I could keep the house and car paid up until roughly the first of the year. With unemployment, any stimulus, and reasonable cost cutting (think Natural Light instead of craft beer), I could probably go into next spring before I hit a major cash flow problem. If I liquidated a large part of my 403b (no 10% penalty for withdrawing now due to COVID-19), I could last well into 2022 "doing the basics" - staying home, a dinner or two out a week, drinking cheap, no trips/hotels/big restaurant bills, etc.

Fortunately, my fixed expenses are low. My mortgage is $679/month. Car payment $292/month. If things got critical, I could pay off the couple grand of negative equity in the Jeep, and buy a cheap car for the interim. CC's were paid off first of March, but I'm using them to stay as liquid as possible, running everything through them, and only paying minimum payments until things stabilize. No other debt. I could live on $2,000 - $2,500/month. With bonus canceled, I'll make around $90k cash this year, provided my pay doesn't get cut.

I'm far more fortunate than most of my friends and acquaintances. I'm very unlikely to lose anything that matters in this debacle.
Wow, it sounds like your company is taking a big hit and is downsizing. You may want to watch your internet usage at work as you have stated many times, you have a lot of time on your hands. When things get tight, companies watch things closer and are looking to cut people for any reason possible. Just a friendly tip.
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Old 04-10-2020, 04:50 AM
 
Location: Concord, CA
7,231 posts, read 9,398,970 times
Reputation: 25870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
That's still significant.

I'm still working. The "weak link" team member got furloughed. I've been designated as in charge of more stuff. Job security, I guess, for now. We're projecting a $150 million operating loss over a 90 day period. That can't be kept up for long, and if it is, I won't have a job for more than another month or two. The economy has to reopen.

We're going to see an epidemic of suicides as the economic hardship deepens. I paid my mortgage up until August 1 today. Looking at my finances more closely this evening, sans unemployment or stimulus, I could keep the house and car paid up until roughly the first of the year. With unemployment, any stimulus, and reasonable cost cutting (think Natural Light instead of craft beer), I could probably go into next spring before I hit a major cash flow problem. If I liquidated a large part of my 403b (no 10% penalty for withdrawing now due to COVID-19), I could last well into 2022 "doing the basics" - staying home, a dinner or two out a week, drinking cheap, no trips/hotels/big restaurant bills, etc.

Fortunately, my fixed expenses are low. My mortgage is $679/month. Car payment $292/month. If things got critical, I could pay off the couple grand of negative equity in the Jeep, and buy a cheap car for the interim. CC's were paid off first of March, but I'm using them to stay as liquid as possible, running everything through them, and only paying minimum payments until things stabilize. No other debt. I could live on $2,000 - $2,500/month. With bonus canceled, I'll make around $90k cash this year, provided my pay doesn't get cut.

I'm far more fortunate than most of my friends and acquaintances. I'm very unlikely to lose anything that matters in this debacle.
Natural Light? OMG

But seriously, we're a nation where only about 30% can afford to remain isolated but most must earn a living doing real work.

I don't expect people to tolerate the isolation much longer. For example, my neighbors who are in their 60s just welcomed their kids and grand kids who came in yesterday from out-of-town for Easter. That violates the rules, but I can't see the cops doing anything about it.

So I think we're screwed.
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Old 04-10-2020, 05:17 AM
 
Location: western NY
6,570 posts, read 3,241,602 times
Reputation: 10338
Quote:
Originally Posted by vicky3vicky View Post
A commonality in experience with my parents and grandparents? I remember my dad telling me that as he was being shipped to Europe during WW2 that he kept thinking "I wonder what the world is going to look like a year from now."

And me, as I sit in my warm and comfortable home filled with an excess of food and creature comforts, I wonder what the world is going to look like a year from now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Teacher Terry View Post
My parents experienced both the depression and WW 2. They had no money, not enough food, people lost everything and then they were sent to war and many died. So actually this is much easier.
I'm pretty much in the same position, and of the same mindset as you two folks. My parents also grew up during the Great Depression, and both my father, as well as my father in law, were WWII veterans.....
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Old 04-10-2020, 05:20 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
23,333 posts, read 29,208,245 times
Reputation: 32706
I find it all a bit crazy. My cousin-in-law is so panic stricken she hasn't left the house in weeks, and lets her husband do the grocery shopping. What's crazy about that is he could get infected at the grocery store and deliver it to her in the house.

I invited just the 2 of them for my birthday yesterday, planned to do some Chinese Stir Fries, it would have just been the 3 of us, but too scared to even do that. Don't have a dinner table 6 feet long.

I just couldn't live like that! Correctly, exist like that!

If only there was a light at the end of the tunnel, I'd be more compliant, but when? End of April? End of May? July 1? Even longer?
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Old 04-10-2020, 07:02 AM
 
Location: East TN
11,224 posts, read 9,853,791 times
Reputation: 40929
The uncertainty of an end date is what has so many people either scared or frustrated. If you knew it was only going to be a month or two, most could figure a way to stretch the money, use credit, or negotiate a financial solution to their worries, and feel less anxiety about the isolation. But with no end in sight, talk of a long term lockdown and financial depression like in the 30s, or an autumn second wave of infection, people are just feeling helpless. Like SC, many could weather a lockdown of 6 months, but at least an equal number would end up destitute.

Maybe this will hammer home for some folks the wisdom of a 3 to 6 month emergency fund. I know many who say they WOULD save one if they could, and then they buy a new car on credit instead of a cheaper used one, and go to Disneyland with the kids.
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Old 04-10-2020, 08:05 AM
 
Location: TN/NC
35,216 posts, read 31,549,991 times
Reputation: 47769
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperhobbs View Post
Wow, it sounds like your company is taking a big hit and is downsizing. You may want to watch your internet usage at work as you have stated many times, you have a lot of time on your hands. When things get tight, companies watch things closer and are looking to cut people for any reason possible. Just a friendly tip.
Right now, I have a work laptop that has its own dedicated connection to the internet. C-D and my personal internet usage is not going out through the laptop. As long as you aren't colliding with the internet filters (gambling, porn, etc.), this isn't being monitored.

With that said, there is some fat in all departments that could be cut. The other teams under my director cut the newest people. My manager cut the weakest performer. If the economy reopens, I think I'm fine. If we're in this situation way into the summer, I'm sure there will be more layoffs.

While the major cities will rebound after this event, smaller areas like mine that have just a couple of quality employers will really struggle. If you get laid off, you're likely having to move to find anything at all.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:31 AM
 
17,407 posts, read 11,393,993 times
Reputation: 41245
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I see the economy bouncing back quickly when this is over for the most part. People locked up at home will be swarming to restaurants, theaters, theme parks, doing elective surgeries, buying new things for themselves. Airlines will once again be booming. New businesses of all types will open.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:44 AM
 
Location: TN/NC
35,216 posts, read 31,549,991 times
Reputation: 47769
Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760 View Post
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I see the economy bouncing back quickly when this is over for the most part. People locked up at home will be swarming to restaurants, theaters, theme parks, doing elective surgeries, buying new things for themselves. Airlines will once again be booming. New businesses of all types will open.
A consumer driven economy requires that consumers have money to spend. For the most part, even those who haven't had a reduction in income are not spending that much now because they have no idea how things are going to go in the coming months. Millions of people are unemployed, many millions more have had reductions in income, etc.

I'd love to go down to Total Wine in Knoxville and buy some wine and craft beer. I can't get out of there for under $100. I'm not doing that right now. If the economy reopens in May, my job will be fine, but what if this shutdown drags out well into the summer? My employer is losing money left and right, and my job may very well be on the line. Everyone is in this indefinite holding pattern.

My discretionary spending right now is probably the lowest it's ever been. I'm mostly eating at home. I'm doing some takeout, but there is a cost savings there from no drinks, no expensive restaurants, no bars, etc. Even though I want to go somewhere, only essential businesses are open anyway. I'm not going to Knoxville to walk around and eat in the car. Any sort of travel right now is completely pointless, even if you ignore the virus.

It's going to take some time before confidence comes back where people feel comfortable getting back to a semi-normal life.
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:45 AM
 
Location: western NY
6,570 posts, read 3,241,602 times
Reputation: 10338
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShadow View Post
The uncertainty of an end date is what has so many people either scared or frustrated. If you knew it was only going to be a month or two, most could figure a way to stretch the money, use credit, or negotiate a financial solution to their worries, and feel less anxiety about the isolation. But with no end in sight, talk of a long term lockdown and financial depression like in the 30s, or an autumn second wave of infection, people are just feeling helpless. Like SC, many could weather a lockdown of 6 months, but at least an equal number would end up destitute.

Maybe this will hammer home for some folks the wisdom of a 3 to 6 month emergency fund. I know many who say they WOULD save one if they could, and then they buy a new car on credit instead of a cheaper used one, and go to Disneyland with the kids.
I agree!

Fortunately, I don't have any pressing financial concerns at the moment, as long as Social Security and my pension payments continue to arrive. However, being cooped up in the house is getting on both my nerves, as well as my wife's. We didn't have any children, as we married somewhat late in life, and for the most part, our relatives have either died, or are in distant cities, so we lead a somewhat basic life. It's just that the few things that we truly enjoy, like going out for dinner once or twice a week, is something we can no longer enjoy.....
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Old 04-11-2020, 09:25 AM
 
1,786 posts, read 1,229,925 times
Reputation: 4060
I can WFH forever if the employer permits it - makes no difference in my job. I am more concerned about returning to work only to get sick in the open floor plan.
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