How are we doing compared to 2004 SDIA airport forecast (Los Angeles: live, vs)

[PacoMartin]

I found the report with the forecast done in 2004 for the county wide vote on the airport on the 2006 ballot.
SH&E had a "low" forecast and a "high" forecast. Forecasting was done in "enplanements" or number of passengers boarding jets. While that is the preferred statistic for the FAA, most airports report capacity in millions of passengers (1 for boarding, 1 for takeoff, and 1 for people riding through). San Diego does not have very many passengers riding through the airport because it is not a convenient hub airport, so enplanements is roughly half total passengers.

Forecast vs Actual enplanements
2017 low 10,309,000 to high 12,004,000 forecast
2018 low 10,549,000 to high 12,317,000 forecast
2017 actual 11,139,933 enplanements
2018 total passengers = 24,238,300 so roughly 12,119,150 enplanements

Two observations:
(1) actual data is near the HIGH prediction
(2) the increase in number of passengers taking off was an extra million between 2017 and 2018. That is far above the 240,000 to 300,000 in the forecast.

SH&E believed that constrained operations will be so severe at 30 million passengers that no more growth will be possible. It seems like the airport will reach 30 million passengers possibly as early as 5 or 6 years from now.

Operations are still lower than expected due primarily to higher capacity jets than forecast. For instance it was forecast that Southwest would never give up their 143 seat jets for something larger. Instead, Boeing delivered 175-seat jets starting in 2012. Also the regional jets are larger than predicted. Load factors are at least 6% higher than forecast.

[sdurbanite]

I've always follow news about our airport airport news and appreciate what you posted above. It's good to see that the passenger traffic is higher than earlier projections. With Aeromexico cancelling the flight from TJ to Shanghai at the end of the year, I'm wondering SAN could pick up the route? I recall airport officials saying they're working on getting a nonstop to China. Still hopeful that Philippine Airlines will do a nonstop to Manila given our large Filipino population. And I'll take any destination to Europe on Norwegian Airlines.

[newgensandiego]

Originally Posted by sdurbanite

I've always follow news about our airport airport news and appreciate what you posted above. It's good to see that the passenger traffic is higher than earlier projections. With Aeromexico cancelling the flight from TJ to Shanghai at the end of the year, I'm wondering SAN could pick up the route? I recall airport officials saying they're working on getting a nonstop to China. Still hopeful that Philippine Airlines will do a nonstop to Manila given our large Filipino population. And I'll take any destination to Europe on Norwegian Airlines.

I also enjoy following the airport news. This article from February stated that the San Diego-Tokyo flight has one of the highest load factors amongst Mainland US-Japan pairs. This, along with the cancelling of TJ-Shanghai, bodes well for San Diego International.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...228-story.html

I personally would prefer a flight to Hong Kong, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shanghai or Guangzhou was chosen instead. Manila makes sense as an end destination, but I'd rather have access to a better hub and Manila could easily be served by Hong Kong. Hong Kong also has better connections to Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mainland China, which may better serve the business and family connections for San Diegans.

Panama City would be ideal for access to Central and South America.

I'm unsure what the next European destination would be. Lufthansa and BA are great O-D pairs with San Diego and have their own networks for routes to Europe and the Middle East. France has solid demand and Air France has a more unique route network. Spain or Scandinavia could make sense too.

Lastly, I fully expect San Diego to start getting a lot more popular with traveling Canadians. We already get our fair share (visiting and residing), but the Vancouver-San Diego route has seen massive growth in the past few years. We will be getting new flights to Edmonton and Abbotsford, BC next summer.

[sdurbanite]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

I also enjoy following the airport news. This article from February stated that the San Diego-Tokyo flight has one of the highest load factors amongst Mainland US-Japan pairs. This, along with the cancelling of TJ-Shanghai, bodes well for San Diego International.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...228-story.html

I personally would prefer a flight to Hong Kong, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shanghai or Guangzhou was chosen instead. Manila makes sense as an end destination, but I'd rather have access to a better hub and Manila could easily be served by Hong Kong. Hong Kong also has better connections to Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mainland China, which may better serve the business and family connections for San Diegans.

Panama City would be ideal for access to Central and South America.

I'm unsure what the next European destination would be. Lufthansa and BA are great O-D pairs with San Diego and have their own networks for routes to Europe and the Middle East. France has solid demand and Air France has a more unique route network. Spain or Scandinavia could make sense too.

Lastly, I fully expect San Diego to start getting a lot more popular with traveling Canadians. We already get our fair share (visiting and residing), but the Vancouver-San Diego route has seen massive growth in the past few years. We will be getting new flights to Edmonton and Abbotsford, BC next summer.

Good to see that the Tokyo flight is doing well. Haven't been to Tokyo in years and been wanting to go back. And yes, a flight to HK would be ideal with all of the its connections. Best flight I'd ever had was on Cathay Pacific from LA. And it appears the nonstop to Manila is no longer in the works.

PAL has also shelved plans for expanding its US network. It had been considering launching services from Manila to Chicago, Houston, San Diego or Seattle with the A350 as well as potentially resuming Cebu-Los Angeles, which it briefly served with A340-300s in 2016 and 2017.

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...-london-478183


Regarding Norwegian, I got excited when I read below a few years ago but I've read that the airline is in trouble these days.

Over time, Norwegian is also looking into adding Seattle, San Diego, Houston, Chicago, Denver and the Washington-Baltimore area to its U.S. route network, he said. The carrier's flights are often exceptionally inexpensive. One-way, no-frills fares from Boston to London, for example, were being offered on Norwegian's website for $139 last week.

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-...er-DOT-consent


I agree that the London and Frankfurt routes are great. And Zurich is great also even though it's seasonal. If I were to guess the next nonstop, maybe Air France to Paris or my favorite, KLM or Delta to Amsterdam?

Finally, good call on a nonstop to Panama City. I flew there from Houston on my way to Buenos Aires (Copa Airlines). Lots of connections from PC to all of Latin America.

All this travel talk is getting me excited. haha

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by sdurbanite

IWith Aeromexico cancelling the flight from TJ to Shanghai at the end of the year, I'm wondering SAN could pick up the route?

Aeromexico was primarily using TIJ as a fuel stop. So if there was no real business case to fly to TIJ (even with the CBX bringing people in from SD county), I doubt there is anything to be replaced.

The North American airlines fly to Shanghai from their hubs

Air Canada: Montréal–Trudeau, Toronto–Pearson, Vancouver
American Airlines: Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles
United Airlines: Chicago–O'Hare, Los Angeles, Newark, San Francisco
Delta Air Lines: Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, Seattle/Tacoma

The Chinese airlines fly from Shanghai to 7 large airports in the USA
China Eastern Airlines Chicago–O'Hare, Honolulu, Los Angeles, New York–JFK, San Francisco, Toronto–Pearson
Hainan Airlines Boston, Seattle/Tacoma


I know that the size of the airport is not the only quality when considering a destination, but all these airports are bigger than SAN, and some of them are more likely candidates for China Eastern Airlines or Hainan Airlines. I would say that San Diego is a long shot behind Houston or a Florida airport

DEN Denver
LAS Las Vegas
MCO Orlando
CLT Charlotte
PHX Phoenix
IAH Houston
MIA Miami
MSP Minneapolis
FLL Fort Lauderdale
PHL Philadelphia
BWI Glen Burnie
SLC Salt Lake City