Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I recently watched the documentary titled for this thread on HBO and it left me with a few questions; I'm sure Bay Area insiders will be able to assist me here!
Who are the "techies" or the people with mostly six-figure incomes migrating in? Has the tech sector increased in size so rapidly this 'problem' is only now being thoroughly discussed, and creating this lack of supply? I know it's been talked about for several years, but not to this extent, and perhaps because inequality is such a hot issue. I suppose there are other reasons contributing to what the documentary shows as a social crisis, perhaps inflation and other economic factors.
At some point will the price exclusivity of San Francisco drive other tech firms away, and into other desirable cities? I imagine its already started to some extent but I've found no specific data other then articles which discuss firms coming to Venice, CA for example.
I recently watched the documentary titled for this thread on HBO and it left me with a few questions; I'm sure Bay Area insiders will be able to assist me here!
Who are the "techies" or the people with mostly six-figure incomes migrating in? Has the tech sector increased in size so rapidly this 'problem' is only now being thoroughly discussed, and creating this lack of supply? I know it's been talked about for several years, but not to this extent, and perhaps because inequality is such a hot issue. I suppose there are other reasons contributing to what the documentary shows as a social crisis, perhaps inflation and other economic factors.
At some point will the price exclusivity of San Francisco drive other tech firms away, and into other desirable cities? I imagine its already started to some extent but I've found no specific data other then articles which discuss firms coming to Venice, CA for example.
That documentary sucked and was highly exaggerated. Yes SF is full of Tech Millionaires but it's not really like what that documentary points out.
I recently watched the documentary titled for this thread on HBO and it left me with a few questions; I'm sure Bay Area insiders will be able to assist me here!
Who are the "techies" or the people with mostly six-figure incomes migrating in? Has the tech sector increased in size so rapidly this 'problem' is only now being thoroughly discussed, and creating this lack of supply? I know it's been talked about for several years, but not to this extent, and perhaps because inequality is such a hot issue. I suppose there are other reasons contributing to what the documentary shows as a social crisis, perhaps inflation and other economic factors.
This is a housing issue - lack of land and lack of supply leads to steep prices. Dumb laws and regulation combine with widespread NIMBYism adds fuel to fire. That's basically it. San Francisco is only 49 sq miles, there is simply not enough room to accommodate everyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianbar
At some point will the price exclusivity of San Francisco drive other tech firms away, and into other desirable cities? I imagine its already started to some extent but I've found no specific data other then articles which discuss firms coming to Venice, CA for example.
Highly, extremely unlikely. Tech is a talent driven business, think of it like a sports team - the best tech companies are all trying to hog the most talented techies. Through circumstance and happenstance that spanned decades, Silicon Valley accumulated the most talented technologists in the world. No way an established tech company is going to move away from the hub of their most important resource (aside from money). Any company that packs up and leave are risking losing some talent who choose to stay behind, and in turn, they are risking a quality downgrade of their product and in turn, potentially being annihilated by their competitors and going out of business or becoming irrelevant (think MySpace being overtaken by Facebook).
That doesn't mean tech won't grow so big that it spills over to other regions. And that's what's happening to LA, etc. But Silicon Valley will remain the hub of technology barring an earthquake that destroy the entire region.
.
Great explanation and link, beb0p- I think I'm starting to get it, slowly.
It's apparent this issue is multifaceted and can be construed in various lights depending on the source.
I know there's another similar thread, but when one highlights the historic significance of heightening lack of affordability in San Francisco, there's only talk about the amount of space. Does anyone economically analyze how higher paying mid level jobs would or could affect the scenario? Do most rank and file tech workers make in the six figures normally? Quite obviously the current lowest wage earners will live in poverty in certain sections and subsidized housing, but what about the 50k and up earners, aren't these arguably being hurt the worst in terms of housing affordability in this area I.e. Teachers, nurses, fire fghters, public service workers etc? I suppose even if they were able to increase real wages, there would still be a lack of supply for their income demographic?
No, Google, Facebook and Apple and many other companies won't uproot and leave, but companies are clearly already expanding more elsewhere, and may accelerate, depending on how bad it gets here. I can tell you for certain that recruitment for relocations is already a problem.
I have little doubt that silicon valley will eventually become much less of a center than it is today - the question is the speed. It will happen because the region is refusing to accomodate growth. It could take 20 years for it to be noticeable. There was a time when people said "no way will New York City not be the manufacturing/corporate HQ/____fill in the blank center of the US." But it happened, manufacturing left, corporate headquarters left. NYC evolved again, but the point remains.
Note that other cities in the US are aggressively trying to build their tech sectors. NYC now has 3 very well endowed engineering schools, up from just 1 a few years ago. Seattle is doing very well right now. LA is quietly growing at a fast pace.
Company I work for now has built a platform using outsourced talent in Belarus. While there's great talent here, it's not necessary to have a high-priced Bay Area team.
Re: housing and why, look up the Tech Crunch article by Kim Mai Cutler on Bay Area housing for a definitive explanation. It's more complex than just NIMBYs and lack of available land. There are laws like Prop 13 that are major factors as well.
The government considers renters to be strained if more than 30 percent of their incomes go toward housing. Only 42.5 percent of San Francisco tenants met this threshold in 2014, compared with a national average of 51.8 percent.
"We expected some of the highest cost burdens in the Bay Area, but apparently the combination of rent control and increasing wages in the city have done enough to minimize the pain," said Andrew Woo, a manager for growth strategy at the online service ApartmentList.
That doesn't mean there isn't a crisis for people who happen to be low on the food chain, but for those are making a good wage, housing is not really a crisis; more like another thing you have to deal with.
.
That doesn't mean there isn't a crisis for people who happen to be low on the food chain, but for those are making a good wage, housing is not really a crisis; more like another thing you have to deal with.
.
I don't know...I guess it depends on where you're coming from. I don't think it's an issue if you're making very large wages - say, well above median income. And there are many people for where that is the case. I know many of these people. They're fairly young. Very educated. And very well payed. And often have a spouse who is similar to them.
But are these people "normal" (as in, the majority) in the Bay Area? Especially when we fast forward decades where many of the people living here now (most of which would probably not be able buy at today's prices) are gone. I foresee a very split future if things continue, even more deeply divided by class than things are now.
I think the biggest issue that we face on this topic is more regional, and has to do with affordability related to commute times. We have a crisis in that if you're making an average wage, you're forced to (very, very, very) far areas. Yea, sure, no one 'deserves' to live anywhere, especially "average" people making an "average" wage. And I agree. But at some point we have to address the issue that many people are commuting ridiculous distances to find affordable housing.
Other metro areas in the US might have expensive cores, but even in places like NYC, you don't have to go very far to find reasonable (for the area) prices. Often within manageable distances to Manhattan.
We don't have something similar to Long Island or northern NJ here, and that (to me) is the bigger problem. Affordability in SF, while an issue, is really the smallest issue we face as a region.
I have no idea what the right solution is. Other than building a lot of new housing (a lot more than people here want).
I guess this really comes down to a philosophical question: what kind of soceity we want to live in? Do we want one where only certain types of people are allowed in? Are we OK with pushing service/peons out to the exurbs more and more?
We don't have a free market (and I'm not advocating that we have a fully free market). But we either have to accept that we don't want any change (or very little change) and accept what that means (i.e. a ridiculously expensive place); or we make some changes at a regional level and accept (smart) growth. And I'm not talking about building more single-story houses or building in the hills - I'm talking about high rises/more smart growth around transit and in downtowns of the region (places like Palo Alto would hate this - but jesus...they need to realize that they're not a small town anymore!).
We need to stop pretending that we are as welcoming to newcomers as we think we are when we discuss these issues...because right now, we are super greedy and shortsighted as a region (at least at a government level).
Last edited by HockeyMac18; 10-28-2015 at 04:58 PM..
bebop, yes, it's as bad as it's made out to be. Of course incomes are higher here, but not nearly high enough. I know couples earning 300 to 400k who cannot afford to buy a nonrenovated, sub-2000 sq foot 3 bedroom home within a 75 minute commute of their jobs with 6 or 7 out of 10 schools in Santa Clara or San Mateo or San Francisco counties. You routinely will meet younger people making 80k to 125k who are forced to have roommates. My wife and I currently make less than 300k, unfortunately.
Are these "problems?" Is it a "problem" if people aren't starving? People are dying in wars and refugee crises, is this really a problem? On that scale, of course not.
The free market is not working re: housing here for many reasons, and big among them is Prop 13, which is a major incentive for people to not ever sell and keep homes in families forever. That's another part of the reason supply is low. Supply is not meeting demand. Read the Cutler Tech Crunch article.
I recently watched the documentary titled for this thread on HBO and it left me with a few questions; I'm sure Bay Area insiders will be able to assist me here!
Who are the "techies" or the people with mostly six-figure incomes migrating in? Has the tech sector increased in size so rapidly this 'problem' is only now being thoroughly discussed, and creating this lack of supply? I know it's been talked about for several years, but not to this extent, and perhaps because inequality is such a hot issue. I suppose there are other reasons contributing to what the documentary shows as a social crisis, perhaps inflation and other economic factors.
At some point will the price exclusivity of San Francisco drive other tech firms away, and into other desirable cities? I imagine its already started to some extent but I've found no specific data other then articles which discuss firms coming to Venice, CA for example.
"Techies" is a term used to refer to the well-paid corporate employees of large tech companies and funded technology startups.
The Bay Area is in a larger housing crisis, spurred by a mixture of 4+ decades of anti-growth politics, a high level of desirability for migrants, and an income and capital boom sparked by the tech industry. Market housing prices have reached a point where even people who are doing quite well have to laugh at the absurdity.
This is a housing issue - lack of land and lack of supply leads to steep prices. Dumb laws and regulation combine with widespread NIMBYism adds fuel to fire. That's basically it. San Francisco is only 49 sq miles, there is simply not enough room to accommodate everyone.
Highly, extremely unlikely. Tech is a talent driven business, think of it like a sports team - the best tech companies are all trying to hog the most talented techies. Through circumstance and happenstance that spanned decades, Silicon Valley accumulated the most talented technologists in the world. No way an established tech company is going to move away from the hub of their most important resource (aside from money). Any company that packs up and leave are risking losing some talent who choose to stay behind, and in turn, they are risking a quality downgrade of their product and in turn, potentially being annihilated by their competitors and going out of business or becoming irrelevant (think MySpace being overtaken by Facebook).
That doesn't mean tech won't grow so big that it spills over to other regions. And that's what's happening to LA, etc. But Silicon Valley will remain the hub of technology barring an earthquake that destroy the entire region.
.
Tech is here to stay because the talent is here. Tech companies are paying more for the talent and more to be near the talent.
San Francisco needs to grow up. It also needs other parts of the region to grow. That is truly the only way out of the affordability crisis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by beb0p
Is the affordability problem really as bad as some people make it out to be?
That doesn't mean there isn't a crisis for people who happen to be low on the food chain, but for those are making a good wage, housing is not really a crisis; more like another thing you have to deal with.
.
Even this article shows SF's higher incomes resulting in lower affordability than other regions. And perhaps as importantly, the high housing costs limit mobility, which causes a drag on our society.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck5000
bebop, yes, it's as bad as it's made out to be. Of course incomes are higher here, but not nearly high enough. I know couples earning 300 to 400k who cannot afford to buy a nonrenovated, sub-2000 sq foot 3 bedroom home within a 75 minute commute of their jobs with 6 or 7 out of 10 schools in Santa Clara or San Mateo or San Francisco counties. You routinely will meet younger people making 80k to 125k who are forced to have roommates. My wife and I currently make less than 300k, unfortunately.
Are these "problems?" Is it a "problem" if people aren't starving? People are dying in wars and refugee crises, is this really a problem? On that scale, of course not.
The free market is not working re: housing here for many reasons, and big among them is Prop 13, which is a major incentive for people to not ever sell and keep homes in families forever. That's another part of the reason supply is low. Supply is not meeting demand. Read the Cutler Tech Crunch article.
A couple earning 300-400k who can't afford a decent place in a decent neighborhood sounds like they have non-income financial troubles to deal with. The tax situation is admittedly tough in that income range, but at 300-400k, is ample to live comfortably in the Bay Area.
Prop 13 is bad, but decades of failure to build is the real problem.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
