Lots of price reductions at this time in this forum area (Jacksonville: apartment complexes, rental)

[RidgeCrossing]

That's great that you think you're 500k "richer".

I think you might be correct if you had more than a paper gain/appreciation!

My understanding is that book gains/profits are unrealized gains, aka "phantom profits". Also, I think most experts say that paper gains aren't cash taken to the bank.

Whatever I guess. I know I've had paper gains blow up in smoke !

[RidgeCrossing]

Originally Posted by Usir

I’m glad you feel like you made a wise decision.

However I would not say that you are $500,000 richer unless you sell the asset. And if you own the home free and clear.

For now you have an asset that is valued at $500,000 more than you paid.

Congratulations.

I’m still of the opinion that the entire economy is in an asset bubble and the trend in the coming 18 months to 2 years is assets will decrease in value.

Certainly not to the level of 4 years ago at the time of your purchase but there will be a reduction in value.

Since you live in a growing and desirable area in Wellen Park you’re fairly safe. However if you had bought outside of the City of North Port in Grand Palm, Stoneybrook, you would also not be exposed to the CDD or the tax structure which binds you to the city services of North Port.

If you follow the situation of de-annexation you know that the city is poorly managed, spendthrift, and has practically no forethought put into their planning, infrastructure, and PPP development because they churn through commissioners every 3 years and haven’t had a quality city manager with vision in many years.

Just the money spent on Warm Mineral Springs, the water park, the septic to sewer conversion, will be budget nightmares that they will be looking the more affluent residents such as yourself to be a big part of funding.

So if there is an economic downturn approaching you should expect your home to lessen in value due to several factors. The abundance of building, the ability of builders to cut prices for new homes and still make a profit, a reduction in the amount of buyers willing to pay mortgage rates of 7% or higher and now buyers more wary of buying in an area that has been exposed to 3 major storms within a 20 year period and each storm doing more damage than the previous, not only in terms of dollar amount lost but actual physical destruction.

Yea, my point at the same time.

But these are the same Einsteins who who pay 500k for a house today, then si months from now the same house may be "worth" 400k, but they would never ever ever suggest out loud now that they are 100k "poorer".

Amazing ingorance sometiems.

[beach43ofus]

I'm good with the $500k being a paper gain for now. I see my model selling new & used each month for $1M+, so its all good for me. I could monitize the gain in hours by taking out a heloc on it, but I have no need to.

To anyone out there reading this...would you rather have a $500k gain on paper, or no $500k gain on paper?

Had I listened to posters here & not bought 4 years ago, I would not have a $500k paper gain. That is a lot of paper.

How liquid a paper gain is, determines how tangible it might be...mine could be converted to cash in days, so your "on paper" argument is full of holes.

Homes like ours are selling w/o realtors by word of mouth in days. All you have to do is mention it to neighbors, and voila...sold sold sold. I would never pay any sales commission to sell.

There are still price reductions, but now the hoards of potential buyers are returning so the naysayers here are about to be crushed again in disappointment that the market is going up up up....and away!

Negative Nellies abound, but if you listen to them, you might leave $500k in highly liquid paper gains on the table.

[Yukenbo]

I've been seeing a fair number of posts and youtubes that imply there will be some crash. Well, we'll see how that bear case plays out. Certainly, interest rates and possibly a recession will have some level of impact.

*However*

It's quite possible that remote work has shifted the demand curve because now one can get a high-paying job and live in Sarasota (which is not to say there are no local jobs that pay well, but this changes things).

Also, there is the tax migration.

And the fact that a large proportion of sales are cash and hence would not depend on interest rates.

So...there will be bulls and there will be bears and I guess we'll know this time next who is right.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'm good with the $500k being a paper gain for now. I see my model selling new & used each month for $1M+, so its all good for me. I could monitize the gain in hours by taking out a heloc on it, but I have no need to.

To anyone out there reading this...would you rather have a $500k gain on paper, or no $500k gain on paper?

Had I listened to posters here & not bought 4 years ago, I would not have a $500k paper gain. That is a lot of paper.

How liquid a paper gain is, determines how tangible it might be...mine could be converted to cash in days, so your "on paper" argument is full of holes.

Homes like ours are selling w/o realtors by word of mouth in days. All you have to do is mention it to neighbors, and voila...sold sold sold. I would never pay any sales commission to sell.

There are still price reductions, but now the hoards of potential buyers are returning so the naysayers here are about to be crushed again in disappointment that the market is going up up up....and away!

Negative Nellies abound, but if you listen to them, you might leave $500k in highly liquid paper gains on the table.

The market is quite different for North Port on South to Ft. Myers right now. Lots of roof damage needs to be repaired first. Around me not many houses will be for sale for awhile. Lots of roof damage and water damage (non surge) in this area. You'd be amazed driving down each street all the damaged stuff piled up on the sides of the road. The wind around here was A LOT worse than up in Sarasota.

But that was the trade off. Punta Gorda had the stronger part of the eye, but due to getting dead center we didn't get the surge. my location is on the edge of zone A. We might have got a couple feet of water in my house had it went dead center on Englewood or Venice for example.

[RidgeCrossing]

funny stuff, i.e. turning a "paper gain" into a liability of borrowing using a HELOC...


it then is really stupid, borrowing money "against perceived equity", which you have to pay back at a HIGHER interest rate of a HELOC than a common 30yr mtg....yeah buddy, turn that so-called "equity" into a DEBT !


lol, whatever....that makes you "richer"!...I almost spit out my kofy laffin



geezus lol

[RidgeCrossing]

A very good friend of mine also had a huge, I mean huge paper profit in his house...he said he wanted to think about pulling a chunk of cash out of the house in form of a heloc loan...aka a "debt", I told him that he might consider selling the darn house , putting about 575 cash++ in his pocket, move, look at another house or dwelling (or hang out for a short while).....maybe, maybe buy another house, put the absolute minimum down, get OPM for a mtge, and KEEP the remainder of the boatload of CASH in his POCKET - OPM is the key - I told him that when he has control of his CASH, he has options unavailable to most....like Monty Hall sez, never take Door #2 or Door#3, take the MONEY, put in in your pocket and say bubbye ! Cash is King, not "equity".


He sold the house, and still has a truckload of cash.

[beach43ofus]

I'll take a huge paper gain over no gain any day.

So sorry some here missed out on the run-up in property values. That is what eternal pessimism in the markets will do.

I'll sit on my huge pile of paper gains until I want to cash out, & move to 32963 to escape the crowds.

The huge pile of paper isn't going anywhere, & will keep growing.

The new buyers are arriving daily now, & nothing anyone says here can stop them. In the short term, they'll capitalize on the discounted properties we have now, but by March, the deals will be gone, & values will be surging again.

Let the good times roll

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'll take a huge paper gain over no gain any day.

So sorry some here missed out on the run-up in property values. That is what eternal pessimism in the markets will do.

I'll sit on my huge pile of paper gains until I want to cash out, & move to 32963 to escape the crowds.

The huge pile of paper isn't going anywhere, & will keep growing.

The new buyers are arriving daily now, & nothing anyone says here can stop them. In the short term, they'll capitalize on the discounted properties we have now, but by March, the deals will be gone, & values will be surging again.

Let the good times roll

What discounted properties? Are 3/2s selling for $200K again? Where?

Super awesome, I mean with all the new buyers, it'll take 2 hours to go from Venice to Sarasota instead of 1 hour. Restaurant waits will be 1 hour instead of 15 minutes. Something to look forward to in the future.

There are people here who don't base the value of their lives on "paper gains." Everyone had gains. Everyone. It's the market. Nothing to do with anything else and no one was "smart" or "dumb" for buying or not buying.

Weird thing to be bragging about.

[1rainman]

Whenever someone tells me they know real estate is going up or down in x amount of time I know they are full of spit. You can only have a rough idea. You can't predict events like covid or where the next hurricane will land or what the next president will do.

I just look at it this way. From my perspective at least this area becomes less desirable to live in every day as tent/mortgage is unaffordable and the place is over crowded.

I assume that a large chunk of the population is similar to myself though I do meet a sizeable portion of people who love it here.

It's like new York city which has seen increases in real estate for 200 years and unaffordable real estate. It's finally losing population due to.over crowding and unaffordability. Prices are still.through the roof for now but how long can priced go up when they are losing people? It's all speculative investing fueling prices it's a bubble.

This part of Florida hasn't reached it's limit yet but I think it's approaching that point where like new York people will look to move some place else. Probably east of 75 or north Florida or other areas we talked about .

Meanwhile the county approves 5,000 new houses here, 3,000 there like they think the growth can go on forever.