Housing permits up 33% in the Savannah MSA (Atlanta, Pooler: real estate market, apartments)

[Airforceguy]

I was over at the census bureau website looking at their housing permit survey, which is released at the end of every month. So far, year-to-date, the Savannah Metro (Chatham, Bryan, Effingham) has seen 2,372 permits issued. Compared to this time last year, only 1,594 permits had been issued. In raw numbers this year's increase is 778 compared to this time a year ago. Breaking the numbers down even further, of the 2,372 permits issues so far for this year, 1,628 were for single family homes, 744 were for 5 units or more and 34 were for structures containing 5 units or more. I'm not sure what has caused this massive spike is residential permits, perhaps developments proposed years ago are finally breaking ground. Personally, I believe this to be the case, especially when looking at the City of Savannah proper and the number of multifamily developments that have broken ground this year. Regardless though, this shows that the Savannah market is hot and with even more development in the pipeline for Savannah, I have a feeling Savannah could break 3,000 permits issued per year pretty soon.

Link to the census info: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/msamonthly.html

[Airforceguy]

To also help put things in perspective, the last time the Savannah MSA had broken the 2,000 permit mark this early was the heady days of the housing boom of the mid 2000s, September 2007 to be precise. Also last year was the first since 2007, that the Savannah area had issued over 2,000 housing permits. In fact in 2007, the number of permits issued was 3,314. While I am happy to see the local real estate market has recovered, I'm worried that current market trends resemble those we saw in late 2007 before the recession. I hope I'm wrong though.

[pink caddy]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

To also help put things in perspective, the last time the Savannah MSA had broken the 2,000 permit mark this early was the heady days of the housing boom of the mid 2000s, September 2007 to be precise. Also last year was the first since 2007, that the Savannah area had issued over 2,000 housing permits. In fact in 2007, the number of permits issued was 3,314. While I am happy to see the local real estate market has recovered, I'm worried that current market trends resemble those we saw in late 2007 before the recession. I hope I'm wrong though.

Hmmmmm, people are paying too much. Ex: 1300 SF. Excellent shape. East 50's $230,000. I know the family that bought it. I think that's a top of the market price. Then again, I'm a trader and not the user. Who knows?

[perryrip]

Airforceguy,
You're on to something. There was an article today about the real estate market and mortgage rates showing a lot of similarities to the pre reccession of 2007 time frame. We're in another bubble but nowhere near as bad as 2007, but all bubbles burst and I hope this one isn't nearly as bad.

[Newsboy]

It’s like 2007-08 all over again ... but without the 0 down mortgages that ruined everybody. Hopefully we learned something from that lesson.

[Newsboy]

Metro Savannah has been adding about 6,000 people per year so far this decade:

347,611 2010 >> 387,543 2017 == + 40,000 / 7 years = 5,714

3,000 housing starts per year will bring annual population growth closer to around 8-10,000 per year. That’s a remakable figure. Is it possible? Is it sustainable? I’d love to say yes ... but it makes me nervous.

[GA Survivor]

I think we are seeing a bit of second home purchasing as well. Any idea how many housing units are removed from the market, bulldozed, sold and made commercial etc.? We are also seeing a TON of apartments (almost a thousand in Pooler and NW Savannah alone) and 10-15% are always vacant, that may account for some of the numbers. There are at least a thousand more coming in 2019. They are seeing good occupancy rates so where are they coming from? Other areas within the MSA?

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by Newsboy

Metro Savannah has been adding about 6,000 people per year so far this decade:

347,611 2010 >> 387,543 2017 == + 40,000 / 7 years = 5,714

3,000 housing starts per year will bring annual population growth closer to around 8-10,000 per year. That’s a remarkable figure. Is it possible? Is it sustainable? I’d love to say yes ... but it makes me nervous.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me, as it's still relatively affordable here compared to some major metro areas with livable/walk-able downtown's.

Name me 5 southern cities with walk able downtown's & all are booming....


Charleston.....Battery/Downtown
Atlanta..........Anything in the perimeter, not a current knife & gun club.
Jacksonville... Riverside
Savannah..... Downtown/Historic
Asheville NC... A lot of 2nd homes for the wealthy up there is pumping money in.
Nashville.... Downtown... Hot city for college grads

All are adding a lot of population each year.

[Airforceguy]

Originally Posted by GA Survivor

I think we are seeing a bit of second home purchasing as well. Any idea how many housing units are removed from the market, bulldozed, sold and made commercial etc.? We are also seeing a TON of apartments (almost a thousand in Pooler and NW Savannah alone) and 10-15% are always vacant, that may account for some of the numbers. There are at least a thousand more coming in 2019. They are seeing good occupancy rates so where are they coming from? Other areas within the MSA?

With the baby boomers retiring in large numbers, I would imagine a large number of the folks renting apartments are retirees. Also, you still have Gulfstream growing, which would attract a lot of people to Pooler/NW Savannah. As for the Historic District, Downtown, Metropolitan and Thomas square neighborhoods, SCAD, empty nesters and young millennials are drving the growth there. For the Southside/Georgetown, I would think folks moving from older areas of the city and folks new to the area would account for much of its growth.

[GA Survivor]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

With the baby boomers retiring in large numbers, I would imagine a large number of the folks renting apartments are retirees. Also, you still have Gulfstream growing, which would attract a lot of people to Pooler/NW Savannah. As for the Historic District, Downtown, Metropolitan and Thomas square neighborhoods, SCAD, empty nesters and young millennials are drving the growth there. For the Southside/Georgetown, I would think folks moving from older areas of the city and folks new to the area would account for much of its growth.

I have met several recently from South Florida that have moved back "North" to Pooler after selling and making another good profit similiar to when they moved South originally. They all said the real estate was quite a bit cheaper than Florida for similar products.