Quote:
Originally Posted by cjg5
Again will be interesting to follow this story. This definitely has potential to be a cataclysmic eruption. Japan just can't seem to catch a break these last couple of years. I hope their government is doing everything they can to prepare for the possibility. Nearby Tokyo is not only the largest city in Japan, it is the largest city in the world.
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I agree, it will be interesting to follow. There may also be some correlation between the Mach 11, 2011, magnitude 9.0 quake and the increased pressure in Mount Fuji. Or if the pressure under Mount Fuji caused the Pacific Plate to slip last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightBazaar
If I may add an additional note, the government (I presume that to mean the Japanese government) is saying " an eruption could result in more than 300,000 deaths as well as cause up to $30 billion in damage."
Mount Fuji close to erupting, experts say |
While I can certainly accept their $30 billion in damage as reasonable, and maybe even a bit low, I seriously doubt an eruption of Mount Fuji would cause 300,000 deaths. A tenth that number is more reasonable, and that is still a lot of people.
The reason I make that assessment is because I experienced the 1992 eruption of Mount Spurr in Alaska. The volcano was about the same distance, due west, from Anchorage as Mount Fuji is from Tokyo.
Spurr - Historic eruptions
Let us assume the worst case scenario - the east side of Mount Fuji collapses, sending a pyroclastic flow directly toward Tokyo. There are several mountains in between Mount Fuji and Tokyo which would block or severely restrict what eventually arrives at Tokyo. Undoubtedly Tokyo would get inundated with ash, anywhere from a few inches to potentially several feet over the course of several days. That is where the majority of the cost will come in. An explosive eruption would also produce a sizable earthquake, and that is where the rest of the cost will be. The good news is that no tsunami would be produced.
It took three years after the Mount Spurr eruption in Alaska before we got rid of all that ash. After the ash mixes with snow and water it becomes like concrete. Very difficult to dispose of and of course you do not want to breathe it, even after it has fallen, since it is effectively glass.
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