How much do Condos Cost in Northgate Seattle

[mkarch]

Originally Posted by annonymous0381

Someone told my that condo prices in Northgate Seattle are expected to drop in 2016. Is this the case? My apartment lease in northgate expires in July 2016

We're not at that point in the cycle yet. It *could* happen, but it's not likely.

Prices are highly unlikely to fall when inventory is at historic lows. Could it happen? Sure. I don't think anyone is expecting it.

[annonymous0381]

Originally Posted by mkarch

We're not at that point in the cycle yet. It *could* happen, but it's not likely.

Prices are highly unlikely to fall when inventory is at historic lows. Could it happen? Sure. I don't think anyone is expecting it.

I guess its a grey area.

[mkarch]

Originally Posted by annonymous0381

I guess its a grey area.

Grey? Look at the data from the last few downturns. Inventory build up preceded price declines every time. We're at the opposite end of the cycle now since inventory is still declining year over year.

Price declines are possible in this environment much the same way that buying a lottery ticket makes it possible to win millions of dollars.

On the other hand, if for some reason prices start collapsing mid-2016 that would likely be a terrible time to buy a condo from an investment perspective. Just like the expansion cycles don't turn on a dime, neither do the contractions. The Seattle market last started contracting in July 2007 but it was another 4+ years before the expansion started. People that bought right as the contraction started ended up losing a lot of wealth.

[annonymous0381]

Originally Posted by mkarch

Grey? Look at the data from the last few downturns. Inventory build up preceded price declines every time. We're at the opposite end of the cycle now since inventory is still declining year over year.

Price declines are possible in this environment much the same way that buying a lottery ticket makes it possible to win millions of dollars.

On the other hand, if for some reason prices start collapsing mid-2016 that would likely be a terrible time to buy a condo from an investment perspective. Just like the expansion cycles don't turn on a dime, neither do the contractions. The Seattle market last started contracting in July 2007 but it was another 4+ years before the expansion started. People that bought right as the contraction started ended up losing a lot of wealth.

Hopefully when my apartment lease is up in July 2016 there will be a supply of condos to choose from.

[homesinseattle]

There will indeed be some when you are ready.

[annonymous0381]

I'm wondering if when my apartment lease in Northgate expires on August 1st,2016 if ivshould purchase a condo or renew my lease for another year. Would it be a mistake of I renew my apartment lease until august 1,2017 and look for a condo in august 2017? Before I buy I condo I want to be sure Seattle is where I want to continue living.

[homesinseattle]

annon, that's a personal question you have to answer. Do you like it here? If so, interest rates are in your favor.

[Tac-Sea]

Originally Posted by mkarch

Grey? Look at the data from the last few downturns. Inventory build up preceded price declines every time. We're at the opposite end of the cycle now since inventory is still declining year over year.

Price declines are possible in this environment much the same way that buying a lottery ticket makes it possible to win millions of dollars.

On the other hand, if for some reason prices start collapsing mid-2016 that would likely be a terrible time to buy a condo from an investment perspective. Just like the expansion cycles don't turn on a dime, neither do the contractions. The Seattle market last started contracting in July 2007 but it was another 4+ years before the expansion started. People that bought right as the contraction started ended up losing a lot of wealth.

This guy is exactly right. Right now we are still in an expansion phase. We should see a a run up in prices until 2024 give or take a couple years. Sure, they may be a slow down or minor down turn in that time, but the real estate cycle is predictable, every 18 years. I'm holding my rentals until 2024 and will then decide whether to cash out and simplify my life or keep being a landlord.

And yes, the declines are not instant. I bought just 1 year from the bottom (it was a good deal still, paid off house...). All the people who bought houses right in 2008 and 2009 ended up watching the values keep tanking for 3-4 years.

[CrazyDonkey]

Originally Posted by mkarch

We're not at that point in the cycle yet. It *could* happen, but it's not likely.

Prices are highly unlikely to fall when inventory is at historic lows. Could it happen? Sure. I don't think anyone is expecting it.

Supply is only half the story. Falling demand, from Boeing layoffs, for instance, is just as important, and could also increase supply, if laid-off workers start putting their condos on the market. Microsoft layoffs could add to the fall-off in demand.