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Both sports have had a track record of guessing wrong on up and coming talents. Ryan Leaf was expected to be better than Peyton Manning. Tom Brady was supposed to be a benchwarmer. Antonio Brown was called little and not fast enough. Damian Lillard was only a two-star player coming out of high school. Steph Curry wasn't recruited by any of the major programs in his home state.
But there are, of course, times when the scouts do get it right with "can't miss" prospects like Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony. All in all, is it easier to scout talent in basketball than it is in football?
given the examples you have pointed out, I think you have answered your question.
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