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Old 05-01-2019, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,966 posts, read 6,503,896 times
Reputation: 44369

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Omaha Beach out has to secretly have the Maximum Security camp dancing for joy. I'm still wondering what was up with that 16K sales tag in his first race. I can't get over that. And we never heard an explanation from his camp on why they were willing to sell him so cheap. He is one of my top picks.

Glad OB is going to be okay but he wasn't in my top selections. So I have mixed emotions on his departure. He's good and had a shot to win Saturday.

Hardly no one likes him for the top spot but I am going with By My Standards. Distance is my only concern due to his recent bloodlines. But go back a little further and it's there. He looks great, I've been following him close ever since his Louisiana Derby upset. Note the energy at the end of that race and his very fast finish. The field he beat was at least decent. If he makes a similar improvement that I am expecting in the Derby he will win.

With Omaha Beach out the odds and how this race shapes up in the beginning will change dramatically.
Stunning news today...

Last edited by John13; 05-01-2019 at 07:37 PM..
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:49 PM
 
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I’m thinking Improbable.
Game Winner and then a couple long ones
Tax and Cutting Humor

My top 4 I think
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:54 PM
 
2,839 posts, read 1,779,184 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
Omaha Beach out has to secretly have the Maximum Security camp dancing for joy. I'm still wondering what was up with that 16K sales tag in his first race. I can't get over that. And we never heard an explanation from his camp on why they were willing to sell him so cheap. He is one of my top picks.

Glad OB is going to be okay but he wasn't in my top selections. So I have mixed emotions on his departure. He's good and had a shot to win Saturday.

Hardly no one likes him for the top spot but I am going with By My Standards. Distance is my only concern due to his recent bloodlines. But go back a little further and it's there. He looks great, I've been following him close ever since his Louisiana Derby upset. Note the energy at the end of that race and his very fast finish. The field he beat was at least decent. If he makes a similar improvement that I am expecting in the Derby he will win.

With Omaha Beach out the odds and how this race shapes up in the beginning will change dramatically.
Stunning news today...
Iím going to let Max try to beat me. I donít think he will race well at CD with a packed field. Numbers look great though.


I may take a second look at any My standards. Thanks. You almost need to include Spinoff if you like this one?
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Old 05-02-2019, 03:48 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
I’m going to let Max try to beat me. I don’t think he will race well at CD with a packed field. Numbers look great though.


I may take a second look at any My standards. Thanks. You almost need to include Spinoff if you like this one?
BMS kicked his ass in the LA Derby and I expect him to do it again.

I like the win slot. I rarely play exactas, triples, etc. Across the board, Daily Doubles, Pick 3 and 4 are more my game....

But I may play a few exactas and triples Saturday.

Regarding Tax - Gotta love his bloodlines but when was the last time a gelding won this?

Game Winner - Why is Baffert still tinkering with him now? Plus, he seems that he has an attitude problem which I do not like. Not saying he is out of this but I won't be using him.
Pretty sure no Derby horse has ever won without winning a major prep race since the point system was put in place...

BMS Equibase numbers are low compared to several in this field. IMO, and you will get many on this subject, It appears to me that the Beyer figures are more accurate. If BMS flops I will re-evaluate that...

I'm projecting a 105-107 Beyer for BMS which will be enough to win. I'm planing a W-P-S bet on him so he better hit the board, LOL.

Another I like is Tacitus. I think he can also win but he seems to get himself in trouble a lot. We'll see how good he is on Saturday...
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Old 05-02-2019, 07:09 AM
 
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What’s your take on Cutting Humor? I like that he’s a Pletcher Horse ran nice times at his last prep race and has been in the money 5 of 6 races. I think he can get a piece underneath. 30-1 seems great given those factors

You’ve convinced me with BMS. Although I can’t see a Win from him
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Old 05-02-2019, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
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Just read 100% chance of rain on Saturday. I am going to re-evaluate...

ECB - I'll answer your question tonight. I am at work now...
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Old 05-02-2019, 03:16 PM
 
2,839 posts, read 1,779,184 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
Just read 100% chance of rain on Saturday. I am going to re-evaluate...

ECB - I'll answer your question tonight. I am at work now...
Vekoma and Game Winner have the top Tomlinson numbers if the track is sloppy.
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,966 posts, read 6,503,896 times
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Good horses will run on anything.

The slop does favor the front runners, almost always. Not good news for Tacitus but I do respect him.

I'm going to work with my top two picks - By My Standards and Maximum Security...
I wasn't happy when BMS drew #3 and that could be a problem. But the horse is going so well now that a poor performance will be disappointing to me.

Regarding Cutting Humor - seems he lacks a bit of class (for this) but he is useful.
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Old 05-03-2019, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Long Island, New York
468 posts, read 167,711 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post

Regarding Cutting Humor - seems he lacks a bit of class (for this) but he is useful.
Mike Smith is now the rider......and any money Mike makes will be given to the jockey who was to ride him..... Corey Lanerie.
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Old 05-03-2019, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,966 posts, read 6,503,896 times
Reputation: 44369
Quote:
Originally Posted by NY 915 View Post
Mike Smith is now the rider......and any money Mike makes will be given to the jockey who was to ride him..... Corey Lanerie.
A rotten thing to do, IMO.

Fans of Cutting Humor will not be getting 30 or 40-1 now, LOL.

Nice gesture on the part of Mike Smith...

I still won't be using him.
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