Tennessee Sees Significant Decreases in County Jobless Rates (Memphis, Knoxville: apartments, health insurance)

[JMT]

Following the lowest state unemployment rate in nearly 20 years, Tennessee’s county unemployment rates for May 2017 have decreased in 94 counties and remained the same in 1, according to data released today by the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TDLWD). Davidson County has the state’s lowest major metropolitan rate at 2.1 percent, a decline from 2.7 percent during the prior month. Knox County’s rate is 2.5 percent, decreasing from April’s 3.1 percent. Hamilton County declined from its previous month’s rate of 3.6 to 2.9 percent while Shelby County has an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, a decrease from 4.4 percent in April.

http://www.tennessee.gov/workforce/news/51093

Here's the one-year change for Tennessee's metro and micro areas. Unfortunately, the employment growth is confined to a few areas, as evidenced by the number of jobs added in the entire state (37,200) being less than the number of jobs added in the Nashville metro area (39,240).

metropolitan area...May '17 unemployment %...1 year jobs change
Chattanooga...3.3%...7,200
Clarksville...4.0%...-180
Cleveland...2.9%...470
Jackson...3.2%...1,730
Johnson City...3.2%...10
Kingsport-Bristol...3.6%...-1,720
Knoxville...2.7%...-1,950
Memphis...3.7%...8,960
Morristown...3.1%...210
Nashville...2.3%...39,240

micropolitan area...May '17 unemployment %...1 year jobs change
Athens...3.3%...-310
Cookeville...3.0%...1,110
Crossville...3.4%...620
Dayton...5.1%...-210
Dyersburg...3.6%...-120
Greeneville...3.1%...620
Lawrenceburg...3.3%...-20
Lewisburg...2.5%...900
Martin...3.5%...-410
McMinnville...3.0%...-1,020
Newport...3.7%...-200
Paris...3.4%...-150
Sevierville...2.6%...-450
Shelbyville...3.4%...190
Tullahoma...3.0%...820
Union City...4.5%...70

TENNESSEE...4.0%...37,200

[Serious Conversation]

I've been a consistent bear on the state. I'm changing views a bit.

These days, I'm seeing help wanted signs virtually everywhere I go, even in Kingsport, which posted a bad job loss number per the above, and is frequently at or near the very bottom of average state weekly wages.

If you want to work in this state, you can find a job. Plenty of places are hiring. At least locally, the catch is that while virtually everyone who wants or is able to hold a job can find employment, that job may not pay very much. Still, that's a lot better than jobs not being available at all.

I graduated college in 2010. At that time, virtually no one was hiring. I made $14/hr commuting fifty miles each way and was glad to have that, but things really sucked then. My father, who has been stuck below $19/hr since he was laid off from his last manufacturing job in 2007, received an offer from a company in Bristol last week at $26/hr. He's also 60. This will likely get him another $600-$800/month in effective income between the wage increase, dropping the VA income tax, and reduced commuting expenses. I am slightly below my peak Midwestern income, but take home more due to no state/county income taxes and cheaper health insurance.

I'm surprised to see Knoxville posting a job loss. I'm betting that was some large, low wage employer, or several smaller low wage employers, as Knoxville is frequently at or near the top of average weekly wage metrics. Kingsport-Bristol - both malls are now virtually dead, and jobs are shifting toward Johnson City. I'm not surprised, but there are still enough low end jobs to prop up the unemployment rate.

Hopefully some of these gains can be more evenly distributed, but I think Nashville will take a majority of the job growth (more so for white collar professional jobs) going forward. Knoxville, Memphis, and Chattanooga could be regional hubs of varying strength.

[nashvols]

Also, here's the link to the May data:
http://tn.gov/assets/entities/labor/...%2C_May_17.pdf


I looked at the April and May data, and I noticed something curious.

Geography = Metropolitan Statistical Area
LF = Labor Force
TE = Total Employed
(for other data, read the link)

Geography - LF Apr 17 - TE Apr 17 - LF May 17 - TE May 17 - LF chg - TF chg

Chattanooga - 264,770 - 254,650 - 263,210 - 254,510 - (-1,560) - (-140)
Clarksville - 112,050 - 106,860 - 111,100 - 106,640 - (-950) - (-220)
Cleveland - 58,250 - 56,110 - 58,140 - 56,470 - (-110) - +360
Jackson - 63,220 - 60,760 - 63,500 - 61,480 - +280 - +720
Johnson City - 90,380 - 86,830 - 89,090 - 86,240 - (-1,290) - (-590)
Kingsport-Bristol - 137,140 - 131,610 - 135,930 - 131,080 - (-1,210) - (-530)
Knoxville - 411,280 - 396,950 - 411,100 - 399,970 - (-180) - +3,020
Memphis - 628,390 - 602,060 - 624,510 - 601,510 - (-3,880) - (-550)
Morristown - 51,050 - 49,030 - 50,920 - 49,360 - (-130) - +330
Nashville - 995,020 - 966,560 - 996,150 - 973,610 - +1,130 - +7,050

Tennessee - 3,164,500 - 3,048,200 - 3,152,400 - 3,061,100 - (-12,100) - +12,900
TN w/o Nashville - 2,169,480 - 2,081,640 - 2,156,250 - 2,087,490 - (-13,230) - +5,850

*Note -- several metros include figures from other states. Those are not included in the TN numbers, but are included in the MSA numbers.

[Serious Conversation]

That's really helpful, but not very surprising.

At least with Kingsport-Bristol, the VA side has been weaker lately. The Bristol mall has all but closed. Many of those stores went to the TN side, but others folded completely. A glass plant, which was propped up by the city of Bristol, VA, fired all its workers last work, losing about fifty jobs. The city is running into significant financial problems, and was talking about reducing fire services. That kind of talk will put the brakes on any new economic growth. I personally know some small business owners who have relocated to the TN side of Bristol - I know one who just left the area.

I've been spending more time in Knoxville lately. I'm not surprised to see it doing fairly well, as it's basically the hub of east TN. Nashville is its own animal these days. I just wish the rest of the state could kickstart more development.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by nashvols

Also, here's the link to the May data:
http://tn.gov/assets/entities/labor/...%2C_May_17.pdf


I looked at the April and May data, and I noticed something curious.

Geography = Metropolitan Statistical Area
LF = Labor Force
TE = Total Employed
(for other data, read the link)

Geography - LF Apr 17 - TE Apr 17 - LF May 17 - TE May 17 - LF chg - TF chg

Chattanooga - 264,770 - 254,650 - 263,210 - 254,510 - (-1,560) - (-140)
Clarksville - 112,050 - 106,860 - 111,100 - 106,640 - (-950) - (-220)
Cleveland - 58,250 - 56,110 - 58,140 - 56,470 - (-110) - +360
Jackson - 63,220 - 60,760 - 63,500 - 61,480 - +280 - +720
Johnson City - 90,380 - 86,830 - 89,090 - 86,240 - (-1,290) - (-590)
Kingsport-Bristol - 137,140 - 131,610 - 135,930 - 131,080 - (-1,210) - (-530)
Knoxville - 411,280 - 396,950 - 411,100 - 399,970 - (-180) - +3,020
Memphis - 628,390 - 602,060 - 624,510 - 601,510 - (-3,880) - (-550)
Morristown - 51,050 - 49,030 - 50,920 - 49,360 - (-130) - +330
Nashville - 995,020 - 966,560 - 996,150 - 973,610 - +1,130 - +7,050

Tennessee - 3,164,500 - 3,048,200 - 3,152,400 - 3,061,100 - (-12,100) - +12,900
TN w/o Nashville - 2,169,480 - 2,081,640 - 2,156,250 - 2,087,490 - (-13,230) - +5,850

*Note -- several metros include figures from other states. Those are not included in the TN numbers, but are included in the MSA numbers.

Thanks for doing all that number crunching. I did a year-to-year change because, for whatever reason, there are some wild fluctuations in month-to-month reports. A March to April comparison, for example, shows that the Nashville MSA's workforce shrank by 2,710 while Chattanooga's workforce grew by 280. In fact, from March to April Chattanooga was the only MSA in the state whose workforce grew at all. Chattanooga may have lost 140 jobs between April and May, but that was after gaining 2,300 jobs between March and April. And Kingsport-Bristol, which lost 530 jobs between April and May, had gained 540 between March and April.

It is clear, however, that part of the reason that some areas have such low unemployment rates is because people are still dropping out of the labor force.
McMinnville's economy, for example, looks like it's doing great with only 3% unemployment. But digging into the numbers, that 3% unemployment rate is only because its labor force has shrunk faster than its loss of jobs. And look at Knoxville. It has an unemployment rate of 2.5% which seems great, but in the last year it's lost near 2,000 jobs. Its labor force, however, has shrunk by over 5,500 which would explain its low unemployment rate.

So, that got me thinking. Let's compare the labor force in these areas. Here's how they compare.

metro/micro area...May 2016 labor force...May 2017 labor force...change
Athens...22,910...22,360...-550
Chattanooga...257,560...263,210...+5,650
Clarksville...111,850...111,100...-750
Cleveland...58,170...58,140...-30
Cookeville...46,450...46,820...+370
Crossville...23,460...23,820...+360
Dayton...13,380...13,040...-340
Dyersburg...16,720...16,350...-370
Greeneville...30,670...30,980...+310
Jackson...62,260...63,500...+1,240
Johnson City...90,010...89,090...-20
Kingsport-Bristol...138,630...135,930...-2,700
Knoxville...416,650...411,100...-5,550
Lawrenceburg...17,920...17,640...-280
Lewisburg...14,920...15,650...+730
Martin...15,860...15,240...-640
McMinnville...18,180...17,000...-1,180
Memphis...620,750...624,510...+3,760
Morristown...51,260...50,920...-340
Nashville...963,690...996,150...+32,460
Newport...14,700...14,320...-380
Paris...14,020...13,710...-310
Sevierville...52,760...51,890...-870
Tullahoma... 47,410...47,890...+480
Union City...14,410...14,310...-100

What I find interesting is that all of the areas that have experienced a growth in the labor force in the last year have also experienced employment growth.
It will be interesting to see what the next few employment reports will show.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by JMT

Thanks for doing all that number crunching. I did a year-to-year change because, for whatever reason, there are some wild fluctuations in month-to-month reports. A March to April comparison, for example, shows that the Nashville MSA's workforce shrank by 2,710 while Chattanooga's workforce grew by 280. In fact, from March to April Chattanooga was the only MSA in the state whose workforce grew at all. Chattanooga may have lost 140 jobs between April and May, but that was after gaining 2,300 jobs between March and April. And Kingsport-Bristol, which lost 530 jobs between April and May, had gained 540 between March and April.

It is clear, however, that part of the reason that some areas have such low unemployment rates is because people are still dropping out of the labor force.
McMinnville's economy, for example, looks like it's doing great with only 3% unemployment. But digging into the numbers, that 3% unemployment rate is only because its labor force has shrunk faster than its loss of jobs. And look at Knoxville. It has an unemployment rate of 2.5% which seems great, but in the last year it's lost near 2,000 jobs. Its labor force, however, has shrunk by over 5,500 which would explain its low unemployment rate.

So, that got me thinking. Let's compare the labor force in these areas. Here's how they compare.

metro/micro area...May 2016 labor force...May 2017 labor force...change
Athens...22,910...22,360...-550
Chattanooga...257,560...263,210...+5,650
Clarksville...111,850...111,100...-750
Cleveland...58,170...58,140...-30
Cookeville...46,450...46,820...+370
Crossville...23,460...23,820...+360
Dayton...13,380...13,040...-340
Dyersburg...16,720...16,350...-370
Greeneville...30,670...30,980...+310
Jackson...62,260...63,500...+1,240
Johnson City...90,010...89,090...-20
Kingsport-Bristol...138,630...135,930...-2,700
Knoxville...416,650...411,100...-5,550
Lawrenceburg...17,920...17,640...-280
Lewisburg...14,920...15,650...+730
Martin...15,860...15,240...-640
McMinnville...18,180...17,000...-1,180
Memphis...620,750...624,510...+3,760
Morristown...51,260...50,920...-340
Nashville...963,690...996,150...+32,460
Newport...14,700...14,320...-380
Paris...14,020...13,710...-310
Sevierville...52,760...51,890...-870
Tullahoma... 47,410...47,890...+480
Union City...14,410...14,310...-100

What I find interesting is that all of the areas that have experienced a growth in the labor force in the last year have also experienced employment growth.
It will be interesting to see what the next few employment reports will show.

I agree that the monthly numbers have some strange fluctuations. I figured since you tackled the yearly job growth change, I would tackle the monthly "reduction" in unemployment.

I think it would be interesting to wait for the July numbers and compare the change in labor force to the change in population, year-over-year.

Something else caught my eye....looking at the city unemployment levels:

City - Labor Force - Population - Labor force as a percentage of population
Nashville - 386,850 - 660,388 - 58.6%
Memphis - 289,570 - 652,717 - 44.4%

That number is striking to me. With Memphis and Nashville so close to the same population, how could Nashville have nearly 100,000 more people in the labor force (yet still have fewer unemployed)? I would expect there to be some difference (number of those too young or too old to be in the labor force)...but not a full 14 percentage points different.

[GunnerTHB]

Kind of interesting seeing such positive numbers out of Jackson. I don't think I've seen that since I've moved here 3 years ago.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by GunnerTHB

Kind of interesting seeing such positive numbers out of Jackson. I don't think I've seen that since I've moved here 3 years ago.

I agree. I hope this means that Jackson has started to rebound.

[creeksitter]

Any idea why Knoxville's labor force declined? I don't recall any big layoffs.

Two guesses are the general decline of retail (maybe the jobs are going to Chattanooga's amazon warehouse?). Or an improved national economy means the bill collecting call centers are scaling down.

[creeksitter]

Aha, I know what it is!

Las May Knoxville was in the middle of an apartment construction boom. Marble Alley, the 811, Knox ridge, the apartments on Island home ave. Plus 2 or 3 in the UT area. All big complexes. There's a new complex on Tazewell pike, was that last year?

The only complex I know of this year is the Baptist hospital site, and it's only in the framing phase. What is being built in west Knoxville?

So those are a lot of construction jobs that have faded away.