Houston vs Dallas for African Americans (San Antonio, Austin: calculation, estimated, metropolitan area)

[majicdonjuan]

Originally Posted by dallasboi

Dallas Black Community is not lacking....PERIOD....Some people may want to believe it is. But Seeing is Believing.

Lacking, no. Smaller, yes.

The data is fairly easy to pull from the American Community Survey tables up to 2012. I've aggregated the results of the 2005, 2008, 2010, and 2012 estimates in the attached screenshot (by CSA level, and using the statistics for blacks alone, or in combination with one or more other races).

As you can see, between 2005 and 2012 total black population gain between the two metros is nearly identical. Speaking primarily in terms of raw numbers, Houston began with a higher base of black people in a smaller metro, and grew faster in black population until the beginning of the recession. From 2008-2012, the numbers have almost flipped from what they were prior to the recession. Between 2005 and 2008 DFW added about 86,000 blacks while Houston added about 110,000. However, between 2008 and 2012, DFW added about 115,000 blacks to Houston's 92,000.

So it appears that both sides are correct - Houston does indeed have a larger black population and larger historical black population despite being the smaller metro. DFW is (at least as of 2012) growing their black population faster.

It will be interesting to see the numbers the next time the ACS comes out. It's possible that DFW has further narrowed the gap, at least in terms of raw numbers. Also keep in mind that other than 2010, these are all estimates, though the margin of error is solid. (+- 0.5%)

In terms of percentages though, DFW needs another roughly 170,000 black folks to reach Houston's level proportionally. That's probably the reason (as many here have said) that Houston "feels" like it has a larger black community - those 170,000 people are "missing" so to speak.

[SouthernBoy205]

Originally Posted by majicdonjuan

Lacking, no. Smaller, yes.

The data is fairly easy to pull from the American Community Survey tables up to 2012. I've aggregated the results of the 2005, 2008, 2010, and 2012 estimates in the attached screenshot (by CSA level, and using the statistics for blacks alone, or in combination with one or more other races).

As you can see, between 2005 and 2012 total black population gain between the two metros is nearly identical. Speaking primarily in terms of raw numbers, Houston began with a higher base of black people in a smaller metro, and grew faster in black population until the beginning of the recession. From 2008-2012, the numbers have almost flipped from what they were prior to the recession. Between 2005 and 2008 DFW added about 86,000 blacks while Houston added about 110,000. However, between 2008 and 2012, DFW added about 115,000 blacks to Houston's 92,000.

So it appears that both sides are correct - Houston does indeed have a larger black population and larger historical black population despite being the smaller metro. DFW is (at least as of 2012) growing their black population faster.

It will be interesting to see the numbers the next time the ACS comes out. It's possible that DFW has further narrowed the gap, at least in terms of raw numbers. Also keep in mind that other than 2010, these are all estimates, though the margin of error is solid. (+- 0.5%)

In terms of percentages though, DFW needs another roughly 170,000 black folks to reach Houston's level proportionally. That's probably the reason (as many here have said) that Houston "feels" like it has a larger black community - those 170,000 people are "missing" so to speak.

I stand corrected, or I just should wait until 2020 to get real numbers. LOL. Some data can be misleading or can contradict each other.

[SouthernBoy205]

Also, looking at the population data that majicdonjuan posted, the two 2010 metros' population are off. DFW = 6,371,773 and Houston = 5,946,000.

[majicdonjuan]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

I stand corrected, or I just should wait until 2020 to get real numbers. LOL. Some data can be misleading or can contradict each other.

Agreed, but the Census bureau has pretty good methodology for estimates.

My guess is that a lot of the differences in data is probably due to the fact that there are in essence three categories that you can use to count black people. Either just counting black alone (those that identify as black and nothing else), or counting only black non-Hispanics, or counting all blacks, including those who identified as more than one race, or as Hispanic.

I chose the latter (including all blacks irrespective of language or mixed race status, but I'm sure others have used other metrics). If you're black, you're black in my book, I really don't care what on what patch of earth you were born or what language you speak.

[majicdonjuan]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

Also, looking at the population data that majicdonjuan posted, the two 2010 metros' population are off. DFW = 6,371,773 and Houston = 5,946,000.

Thanks for the correction and you are correct. I accidentally used the estimate for 2010 as well. However, I'm using CSA numbers, not MSA, so the actual 2010 numbers should be DFW at 6,731,317 and Houston at 6,051,363.

I've updated the figures using the actual numbers for 2010 below. This shows that the estimates for 2012 were significantly undercounted. I put them in red below and the actual numbers in blue. I also changed the aggregated data at the end with only 2005-2010 growth (leaving out the now suspect 2012 numbers).

At this point though, I think this data actually raises more questions than it answers.

[SouthernBoy205]

I agree. LOL.

Also, with the actual 2010 populations for each metro, the black population for each is listed below (using 17.8% for Houston and 15% for DFW):

Houston: 1,058,388
DFW: 955,766

[SouthernBoy205]

Originally Posted by majicdonjuan

Thanks for the correction and you are correct. I accidentally used the estimate for 2010 as well. However, I'm using CSA numbers, not MSA, so the actual 2010 numbers should be DFW at 6,731,317 and Houston at 6,051,363.

I've updated the figures using the actual numbers for 2010 below. This shows that the estimates for 2012 were significantly undercounted. I put them in red below and the actual numbers in blue. I also changed the aggregated data at the end with only 2005-2010 growth (leaving out the now suspect 2012 numbers).

At this point though, I think this data actually raises more questions than it answers.

I agree. You see why I'm confused by your data and that article's stats?

[NoClueWho]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

Pump ya brakes. I thought the same too UNTIL I saw the stats in the article. I'm not quoting the content of the article because it's all subjective. However, the article did point out that DFW grew more than Houston in the 2000s (which gives the article's stats some creditability, since this particular data has been proven to be true on many accounts), BUT from 2006-, Houston has been gaining more every year (with DFW ranked 4th). I guess it's safe to say that DFW gained more than Houston before 2006, since its total growth for that particular decade was higher than Houston's.

What do you mean "pump ya breaks"? My main point is that the point of the article---that DFW is somehow lacking for blacks---is WRONG!!! Like I told you 10 pages ago, I know you are just quoting the article for stats, but when you start agreeing with the article that DFW is bad and lacking for blacks, then you and the article are dead wrong, and that's just a fact. By the way, have you ever been to Dallas before?

[SouthernBoy205]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

What do you mean "pump ya breaks"? My main point is that the point of the article---that DFW is somehow lacking for blacks---is WRONG!!! Like I told you 10 pages ago, I know you are just quoting the article for stats, but when you start agreeing with the article that DFW is bad and lacking for blacks, then you and the article are dead wrong, and that's just a fact. By the way, have you ever been to Dallas before?

Pump ya brakes again. I've NEVER said anything bad about DFW! And my posting those stats was NOT to say that DFW was lacking in blacks or to belittel; it was to point out that Houston has been gaining more blacks yearly (since 2006) than DFW. I'm not agreeing with the ACTUAL article because it's all subjective. I'm quoting the stats only. IDC about that article because I'm getting what I need culturally in Houston. I could care less why Dallas isn't getting black professionals, if that's the case.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

Pump ya brakes again. I've NEVER said anything bad about DFW! And my posting those stats was NOT to say that DFW was lacking in blacks; it was to point out that Houston have been gaining more blacks yearly (since 2006) than DFW. I'm not agreeing with the ACTUAL article because it's all subjective. I'm quoting the stats only. IDC about that article because I'm getting what I need culturally in Houston. I could care less why Dallas isn't getting black professionals, if that's the case.

Thats incorrect. DFW's black population is growing faster. Its best to quote actual numbers as opposed to making stuff up. Below are the actual numbers:


Black Growth 2010-2012:

Atlanta: 69,567
Dallas: 53,698
Miami: 46,213
Washington DC: 41,884
Houston: 41,162
New York: 23,555
Charlotte: 21,897
New Orleans: 17,247
Orlando: 16,298
Tampa: 13,268
Minneapolis: 12,904
Memphis: 12,704
Boston: 12,271
Baltimore: 12,258
Philadelphia: 12,178
Phoenix: 11,717
Nashville: 10,789
Columbus: 10,650
Seattle: 10,154
Las Vegas: 9,826
San Antonio: 9,375
Austin: 9,004
Riverside: 6,689
Denver: 5,084
Sacramento: 4,850
Oklahoma City: 4,456
San Diego: 3,369
Kansas City: 3,347
Cincinnati: 2,862
Los Angeles: 2,057
Portland: 1,814
Milwaukee: 1,728
Pittsburgh: 1,342
San Jose: 1,319
St. Louis: -298
San Francisco: -1,038
Cleveland: -3,089
Detroit: -4,924
Chicago: -10,990

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