Why did Texas Murder Rates drop starting in 1995? (Houston: crime rates, gated)

[Slunkmonky]

I was looking at crime rates by year in Texas. Between the years of 1979 and 1994 there were yearly murders numbering from a high of 2,466 to a low of 1,959 during these years. The average looks about 2150-2200 murders a year.

But from 1995 on, even as the state grew in size, we see a high of 1693 murders (in '95) and then it seems to be mostly 1300 per year on average. It looks like '95 was a turning point of some sort since typically between '79 and '94 there were about 900 more murders each year than from '95 till now. When the numbers are around 2000, obviously 900 is not insignificant at all.

The reason I looked into this at all is because someone told me that in many places when you allow more women to have legal abortions about 20 years later you'll see a drop in the violent crimes (as there are so many people who murder between 18 and 30 as opposed to teenagers or 30+). '95 would be 21 years after 1974,, 1973 being the timeframe of Roe V Wade. Was abortion pretty well outlawed in Texas before R V. W?

I think in '96 that concealed carry laws went into effect in TX, this is of course, the year after '95 saw a drop of a few hundred murders from the year before. But '96 also has a big drop from '95 and then it stabilized.

Would you suggest that I look at other big changes in Texas\US\World in '95 that I'm not considering? I understand Playstation came out in '95 so I don't know if Gran Turismo may have had a pacifying effect on men between the ages of 18 and 30 at this time.

[G Grasshopper]

Have you looked at the rates nationally? Was it a national trend as well as in Texas?

[Gorfml]

roe vs wade...

[Slunkmonky]

I looked at some other states and their rates around '95. (before vs after)

Pennsylvania has no noticeable change.
Same with Alaska
Idaho
Alabama


New York has the same drop off at the same time basically. in '94 it was about 2k murders,, 900+ in '98.

California seems to have an anomoly in the same period but not as rigidly as NY and TX. The anaomly is a drop there as well.

Illinois sees a somewhat well defined drop of 200-300 or so murders per year (1000-1250 a year or so a year until '94 and then after 95 it settles more around 800 per year)

NJ doesnt seem to have been effected.

OH sees about a 100 per year drop in that time frame.

NC is in the 700's, near 800 for a half a decade or so and then after '95 is in the 400's and 500's from then on.

Wash. DC goes from 3-400s down to 200 or so in the same time frame.

It seems like really small populations were unnaffected. (except DC, the smallest of all given, but obviously DC is not like Idaho since it's in the middle of a larger metro area) and no state has a rise after that point, at least not a rise thats part of a trend. The general trend looks to be between about 1980-2011 is defined by murder rates being higher from '79 to '95 in states that had a lot of murder compared to other states. Texas's number appear to be among the most noteworthy.

I think the TX handgun concealed carry is ruled out as the predominant or only factor since that was a state law that obviously had no effect on CA, NY, DC.

[Gorfml]

it's pretty obvious that all the unwanted babies who were never born didn't get a chance to grow up and murder ppl. thank u god for legalizing abortion ...

[Trainwreck20]

You could also make the 'leap' that the end of the cold war (and beginning of combat in the middle east) drew the violent types elsewhere . Seeing as Texas has a large military population, it kinda fits, as least as well as R vs W.

It is also possible, as with many statistics, that the 'rules' were changed and more murders were ruled as manslaughter, etc. (I have not looked at them at all, so no idea on the myriad of ways 'stat massage' can occur for murder).

[Chopper_Guy]

Originally Posted by Gorfml

roe vs wade...

Eaxactly!

It's a documented fact that murder and violent crime rates across the country dropped to unprecedented lows in all major cities about 20 years after roe v. wade. The reasoning is simple, even though it sounds racist: the chances are very high, like it or not, that a goodly percentage of babies born to inner city unwed mothers are gonna grow up to be criminals. So....since a slew of these would-be miscreants were aborted upon the passing of roe v. wade, they of course were not around to commit crime when they would have reached the ages of 18-21, which are prime thug ages.
Thus: you have your "20 years later crime drop."

Not a pleasant subject, to be sure, but facts is facts.

[buffettjr]

Yes, I will also throw in that it is Roe V Wade. You cannot claim it has anything to do with what the state did, because as others mentioned the rate dropped nationally. Concealed carry laws as an explanation are wrong on two fronts then. First, they do not lower crime rates in any measurable way, and second that is attributing the drop to something the state did.

Rudy Giuliani would always go on and on in campaigns about how he lowered crime in NYC and it was because of his emphasis on police this and police that, and I always wished I'd gotten to visit just once in the crowd and ask a question, and my question would have been "how did your leadership in the NYC police department lower crime in Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Houston, and New Orleans all at the same time?" Alas, I never got the chance.

If you're interested in the subject, the book "Freakonomics" was the first to bring the Roe V Wade idea to the mainstream. It is a casual read.

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

You could also make the 'leap' that the end of the cold war (and beginning of combat in the middle east) drew the violent types elsewhere . Seeing as Texas has a large military population, it kinda fits, as least as well as R vs W.

It is also possible, as with many statistics, that the 'rules' were changed and more murders were ruled as manslaughter, etc. (I have not looked at them at all, so no idea on the myriad of ways 'stat massage' can occur for murder).

I believe these ideas are negated by the fact that crime dropped across the nation. Also, it wasn't just murder that dropped but other types of violent crime as well.

[atxcio]

The mid 90's were the effective beginning of the current "information age".

DNA testing. Effective, shared databases. The Internet.

It's just much harder to get away with crime now. No anonymity. A society where everyone is being watched has less crime.

That's the cause for your drop right there...