Why did Texas Murder Rates drop starting in 1995? (Austin, Howe: violent crime, unemployment)

[Chopper_Guy]

Originally Posted by atxcio

The mid 90's were the effective beginning of the current "information age".

DNA testing. Effective, shared databases. The Internet.

It's just much harder to get away with crime now. No anonymity. A society where everyone is being watched has less crime.

That's the cause for your drop right there...

Your argument is egregiously flawed.

Enhanced crime solving technology may account for more criminals and murderers being caught, but it wouldn't STOP the crimes from being committed.
"The information Age" makes it harder to hide and get off the grid and get away with stuff, but it has little effect on the criminal mind and its intents and desires.
And cops have been using shared data bases forever. NCIC has been around since the 70s. And I think the first murder solved from DNA evidence was, like, 50 years ago in England, if I recall. Jow Wambaugh has a book about it.
No gettin' around it, guys: the crime rate drop is due by and large to Roe v. Wade and all those aborted future thugs.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by Chopper_Guy

Enhanced crime solving technology may account for more criminals and murderers being caught, but it wouldn't STOP the crimes from being committed.
"The information Age" makes it harder to hide and get off the grid and get away with stuff, but it has little effect on the criminal mind and its intents and desires.

Big brother societies always have less crime. And we've kind of ended up with one, not formed by a single strong figure such as a dictator -- one formed as a result of our own technology. But the result is the same; crime is less.

The "criminal mind" is not always insane, as you suggest -- it is often selfish, but pragmatic. Just ask a cop. It is aware of the likelihood of success or failure. So the fact that you can't get "off the grid", can't escape as easily, and will likely get caught -- that does have an effect on many criminals. Not all of them, naturally... but then again the crime rate hasn't fallen to zero. There will always be criminals out there who ARE insane, or ARE incredibly stupid.

[Slunkmonky]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

You could also make the 'leap' that the end of the cold war (and beginning of combat in the middle east) drew the violent types elsewhere . Seeing as Texas has a large military population, it kinda fits, as least as well as R vs W.

It is also possible, as with many statistics, that the 'rules' were changed and more murders were ruled as manslaughter, etc. (I have not looked at them at all, so no idea on the myriad of ways 'stat massage' can occur for murder).

Hey! I'm a vet.. And I don't know about the army in the 90's but I think i stayed out of more trouble in the army that I did in college even having combat experience and its obligatory mental deteriorations. Also, when people have a salary, gibill and full insurance they tend to worry about murdering people less than the rest of the population in general. Also, if you make enough naked pyramids you tend to vent enough of your aggressions,,, umm, I've said too much.

One thing I didn't think of before, I don't know if the murder rate was higher from 1979 on because of increased amounts of cocaine use and it's associated violence? (paging Gary Webb)

The "stat massage" angle is interesting, I hadn't even considered that. I read once,, I think it was that Denmark has some of the happiest people per capita in the world, but also has a higher suicide rate than other EU nations because they are pretty down to earth and straightforward and always rule suicides as suicides whereas in other countries they might rule a death 'suspicious' just to protect that persons family name for emotional reasons. For example, in more Catholic Italy, you probably don't want to say lots of people have commited suicide if you can call it anything else since that's a major sin. In other more secular, or at least less-catholic, countries it's less shameful to admit it was a suicide. (Cuz you know, God usually reads the coroner report instead of using the omnipotence granted to him by his all-feeling noodly appendages)

However when you consider the other states beyond Texas having the same swing in numbers at the same time, I doubt they all softened the definition of murder at the same time unless it was a federal law and I don't think there are thousands of federal murder cases each year, espeically not 1000 from texas alone in a given year. That's a ton of RICO or inter state serial-killer cases not making the news....

[Slunkmonky]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

If you're interested in the subject, the book "Freakonomics" was the first to bring the Roe V Wade idea to the mainstream. It is a casual read.

I think I watched 'freakonomics' some time ago and finally got around to looking into some of the material for myself today as it came to mind randomly. Good call.

[Nighthawks11]

Advances in medical technology have played a big part in it. People are violet as they ever were, but they have better and better chances of surviving a trauma. What could have been a tick mark for murder goes under aggravated assault if the life is saved.

[Slunkmonky]

Originally Posted by Nighthawks11

Advances in medical technology have played a big part in it. People are violet as they ever were, but they have better and better chances of surviving a trauma. What could have been a tick mark for murder goes under aggravated assault if the life is saved.

Another great point, something I hadn't thought of, and surely that contributes. But I don't think there was one miraculous medical advance in '95 that caused certain states to have dramatic increases in survivability of murder attempts but it didn't work in others. Still, these are the kinds of responses I was really hoping for. rep pts.


Apparently pre Roe V Wade the states were split 20/30 on which had legal abortion, then after it was all 50 states. I'm sure theres going to be info on this already compiled once I look.

[centralaustinite]

Just FYI: Roe v Wade was a Texas case! There was most definitely no legal abortion in TX prior the decision.

[Bo]

Originally Posted by Slunkmonky

I think this thread is relative to austin

The Texas forum is the place to discuss the Texas murder rate. That's why the thread is in the Texas forum now.

[blkgiraffe]

The crack epidemic was over.

[SVTRay]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

Just FYI: Roe v Wade was a Texas case! There was most definitely no legal abortion in TX prior the decision.

You beat me to it.

I'll be the first to admit when I first heard about lower crime being traced to Roe vs Wade sounded like a crock but after watching the documentary on it, the facts are Roe vs Wade had a tremendous effect on crime rates not only in Texas but through out the United States. They even showed effects of abortion world wide.