Tucson real estate on the upswing compared to rest of U.S. (Phoenix: foreclosures, to rent)

[gman4gov]

There is no doubt that this recession will bear bad news for Tucsonans thinking that prices will stay high, and inventory continuing to stay low. This is the exact same outlook during the housing collapse and I see no difference. Low paying jobs, new unemployment numbers, and rising inflation is not going to do Tucson good in one year from now.

[grmi66]

There is a huge difference between this and 2006-08. Back then there was unchecked inventory and builders couldn't build houses fast enough. Now, builders sell the house first and then start building. Even if a builder wanted to build spec homes, they don't have the labor pool to do it.

Purely anecdotal from looking around at the new people in my neighborhood and from chatting with a real estate agent who is a lifelong resident of Tucson and in the minority of agents who actually makes a decent living from selling homes. She is a pretty astute observer of the current market and as a family friend I trust her assessment. Much of the home sales this year are not to current Tucson residents, but to out of state buyers relocating to Tucson.

Where this market will be bad would be for long term average Tucsonans who think that they can still get that small three bedroom house by working as a manager at a bike shop or restaurant. Or the small pool of young families looking for their first starter house. Just a quick perusal online, a starter McStucco KB home out in Vail starts at $230,000 right now.

The only place in the market that's holding steady from last year are rental rates. Both of my adult children who rent apartments have been told that rent will not be increased at all for the next 12 months.

[mddd]

Saddlebrooke community is still seeing lots of growth and interest. The covid situation has emphasized to some the desire for outdoor safer activities, patio dining in restaurants run with extra measures, and pools with safer practices.
Golf is seeing an increase again. No shutdowns due to immediate modifications. Go to WIKI section for clickable links

https://groups.io/g/Saddlebrooke-community-info/topics

[OnryOne]

They're snatching them up now while the markets down and will unload when all this crap is over. Seems to be Tucson's motto, Rape it and Run...

[Saguarogirl507]

Originally Posted by gman4gov

There is no doubt that this recession will bear bad news for Tucsonans thinking that prices will stay high, and inventory continuing to stay low. This is the exact same outlook during the housing collapse and I see no difference. Low paying jobs, new unemployment numbers, and rising inflation is not going to do Tucson good in one year from now.

I do so agree with your assessment. Right now real estate looks to be OK but the longer the pandemic goes on the worse it will be for places like this. I don't know what the future holds but I think that relocating could be out of the question for many folks.

Lately I have been wondering if this had happened a few years ago, would I have moved out here? I am not so sure. When I moved here, I never expected going back east to see family would become nearly impossible. I don't know when I will see my family again. I am pretty heartbroken.

[azbound621]

Relax yourselves.... don't feed into the fear

[ArniBoy]

Originally Posted by grmi66

Purely anecdotal from looking around at the new people in my neighborhood and from chatting with a real estate agent who is a lifelong resident of Tucson and in the minority of agents who actually makes a decent living from selling homes. She is a pretty astute observer of the current market and as a family friend I trust her assessment. Much of the home sales this year are not to current Tucson residents, but to out of state buyers relocating to Tucson.

I can concur with this. My wife sells on the higher end of the market here in town ($500K and up) and this correlates. Almost all her clients in the $600K and up market are from out of state. And of those, a large percentage are making cash offers. California, Illinois, Washington have made up some of the areas that her clients are re-locating from. Right now, the inventory is extremely low (in particular market areas), and its not uncommon for sellers to have multiple showings per day. Typically, summer is the slow time, but that hasn't been the case this year. Low interest rates, people wanting to get out of high tax areas (although I believe Pima County has the highest property tax rate in the state), are incentives.

[grmi66]

My agent services primarily the same demographic. She's seeing buyers from California, Oregon, Washington, New York & Chicago. Even if they can't relocate in the next year, they are buying up places this summer to have a home to escape to. All cash offers made on the same day the house hits the MLS is not uncommon.

Because our agent is a family friend, she's working a different segment of the market and helping us find a townhouse for one of our children. A townhouse that went for under $100,000 near the Tucson mall two years ago are now running $175,000 to $200,000. All we want is a place an old lady used to own that needs a little TLC and a few years ago when we were trying to get the lay of the land were fairly common. Now next to impossible to find, or if you find one you are getting into a bidding war with an all cash buyer or two.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by grmi66

My agent services primarily the same demographic. She's seeing buyers from California, Oregon, Washington, New York & Chicago. Even if they can't relocate in the next year, they are buying up places this summer to have a home to escape to. All cash offers made on the same day the house hits the MLS is not uncommon.

Because our agent is a family friend, she's working a different segment of the market and helping us find a townhouse for one of our children. A townhouse that went for under $100,000 near the Tucson mall two years ago are now running $175,000 to $200,000. All we want is a place an old lady used to own that needs a little TLC and a few years ago when we were trying to get the lay of the land were fairly common. Now next to impossible to find, or if you find one you are getting into a bidding war with an all cash buyer or two.

I noticed there’s no 1 bdrm condos for sale around OV. Did the builders here just not build any or is it rare for one to get listed?

[ontheGtrain]

Wait until next year when all the forbearances have been exhausted and the foreclosures start hitting the market in the fall of 2021. Don't buy at the peak and don't try to catch a falling knife. Great time to sell, horrible time to buy. Rent for now in Tucson if you need a place to live here. Don't rush in to buy and make a poor decision.