Sky high ratings for Pilot episodes (Lost, tv show, television, series)

[PacoMartin]

Many new shows have very high ratings for their pilot episodes.
15.520 The Crazy Ones CBS (5.225 low episode #22)
13.896 Resurrection ABC
13.090 The Millers CBS
12.580 Blacklist NBC
12.120 Agent's of Shield ABC
10.100 Sleepy Hollow FOX
8.940 The Goldbergs ABC
8.355 About a Boy NBC
8.232 Super Fun Night ABC
7.990 Mom CBS (9.579 peak episode #15)

It's interesting that of all these new shows, only Mom is doing better than it's pilot episode. I actually think that is a better sign of the long term success of a show.

[bUU]

Blacklist has retained its high ratings regardless of not exceeding that of the pilot, and has been rated at least double or more, as compared to Mom, all the way through the season. Starting in the Top 20 and staying in the Top 20 throughout, as Blacklist did, is better than starting low and ducking into the Top 20 only several times during the season, as Mom did. I don't even think Mom did as well as Sleepy Hollow in any of the weeks they were both showing new episodes.

I do agree, though, with the assessment that the other shows on your list haven't demonstrated staying power, but not because of any comparison between peak rating and the arbitrary benchmark of pilot ratings. Pilot ratings have relatively little to do with it, beyond making it past the first few weeks.

Beyond that, ratings don't tell the whole story. Look at ratings the way you look at revenue for a business - how much money the business earns. But profit is the difference between revenue and cost. One of the aspects of cost that drive staying power of a television series is ownership. Mom is a joint venture between Chuck Lorre and WB. By comparison, The Millers is part owned by CBS itself. Putting aside that the Millers averaged 25% better ratings than Mom, the fact that it is part owned by CBS will give it far more staying power. The drag of Mom's ownership may cut it short, especially when the costs get so much higher after the third season.

Other programs on the list you posted are also going to be affected by this. Fox owns part of Sleepy Hollow; ABC owns all of Agents of SHIELD. Meanwhile, The Crazy Ones, like Mom, isn't owned by CBS, so its mediocre average ratings for the year probably won't be good enough for a second season, while Elementary (part owned by CBS) has already been renewed, even with lower ratings than The Crazy Ones.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by bUU

Blacklist has retained its high ratings regardless of not exceeding that of the pilot, and has been rated at least double or more, as compared to Mom, all the way through the season. Starting in the Top 20 and staying in the Top 20 throughout, as Blacklist did, is better than starting low and ducking into the Top 20 only several times during the season, as Mom did. I don't even think Mom did as well as Sleepy Hollow in any of the weeks they were both showing new episodes.

Nice post. Thank you.

I tried to pick all the new shows that were doing reasonably well. Mom was marginal for renewal, so I am not saying that Mom will beat out all these other shows.

It's just that staying power seems to be a positive sign. If you looked at ratings for "The Big Bang Theory" vs, "Samantha Who" in the 2007-08 season, you would have a hard time predicting which show would be cancelled by next season. But I think ABC was so desperate that year that they kept bouncing Who? around the time slots so that it lost it's audience quickly.

Date -------- Who? TBBT
Sep 24, 2007 ----- 9.52
Oct 01, 2007 ----- 8.58
Oct 08, 2007 ----- 8.36
Oct 15, 2007 14.92 8.15
Oct 22, 2007 14.35 8.81
Oct 29, 2007 15.36 8.92
Nov 05, 2007 12.86 9.68
Nov 12, 2007 14.34 9.32
Nov 19, 2007 15.42 ----
Nov 26, 2007 12.62 ----
Dec 03, 2007 07.53 ----
Dec 10, 2007 06.72 ----
Mar 17, 2008 ----- 9.11
Mar 24, 2008 ----- 8.63
Mar 31, 2008 ----- 8.68
Apr 07, 2008 11.80 ----
Apr 14, 2008 09.98 7.69
Apr 21, 2008 10.13 7.51
Apr 28, 2008 09.87 8.07
May 05, 2008 10.53 7.38
May 12, 2008 11.02 7.79
May 19, 2008 ----- 7.34

Originally Posted by bUU

Mom is a joint venture between Chuck Lorre and WB. By comparison, The Millers is part owned by CBS itself. Putting aside that the Millers averaged 25% better ratings than Mom, the fact that it is part owned by CBS will give it far more staying power. The drag of Mom's ownership may cut it short, especially when the costs get so much higher after the third season.

I think you make an excellent point here. "The Millers" was given the choicest spot on the schedule for a new sitcom, right after TBBT.

Given that CBS has an unequaled 4 sitcoms with Lorre as producer, you might think he would be given a 2 hour block to have his shows play off each other. Although Lorre has become an extremely wealthy man because of his relationship with CBS, ultimately I think that he could someday exploit newer distribution systems for TV shows to get even more control (and wealth).

Ownership issues are intriguing. There have been a number of pundits who speculate that Charlie Sheen may make more money off of "Anger Management" then he did from "Two and a Half Men". I find that hard to believe since AM is barely attracting an audience the first time shows are on the air, so it seems like the syndication rights can't be worth much.

Originally Posted by bUU

Other programs on the list you posted are also going to be affected by this. Fox owns part of Sleepy Hollow; ABC owns all of Agents of SHIELD. Meanwhile, The Crazy Ones, like Mom, isn't owned by CBS, so its mediocre average ratings for the year probably won't be good enough for a second season, while Elementary (part owned by CBS) has already been renewed, even with lower ratings than The Crazy Ones.

The Crazy Ones has better 18-49 demographic than 7 of the dramas CBS renewed, but lower overall viewership.

The Crazy Ones 2.07 & 8.32
Unforgettable (renewed) 1.05 & 7.04
Blue Bloods (renewed) 1.39 & 11.49
Elementary (renewed) 1.76 & 8.91
The Good Wife (renewed) 1.46 & 9.47
Hawaii Five-0 (renewed) 1.42 & 9.73
CSI (renewed) 1.93 & 9.92
Person of Interest (renewed) 1.98 & 11.92

But "The Crazy Ones" does have better ratings than "Mom". That toss up may be decided by production costs. It looks like TCO is much more expensive to make than "Mom".
Mom (renewed) 2.08 & 7.57

[westhou]

I don't watch any of those shows. It's difficult to get into a network tv show because of the threat of cancelation each season. Cable shows tend to have more staying power which is why I stick with watching them.