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Gastonia is pretty much a suburb of Charlotte so you might as well lump those two together.
The main problem with the idea of filling the existing housing stock before building more is that the vacancy rate in these cities is high mostly because they have the misfortune to be at the intersection of employment problems and developer greed. The employment base isn't there to support the housing stock and it never was. But there sure were a lot of people hoping it would be. There are a handful of heavily overbuilt areas in the states I work that I expect will require decades to reach a healthier balance between population and housing. Sure, you could move a bunch of people into the vacancies tomorrow. But they would be unemployed unless they were able to bring their job with them. North Carolina and Florida also have large swaths of housing marketed toward retirees. I don't work in Florida but in NC those areas have taken severe hits due to people at the edge of retirement experiencing large financial losses (or fearing same) and making changes to their long-term plans. These developments are particularly problematical as they were often built in areas where there were few employment opportunities in good times. Makes them very difficult to re-market to a younger demographic still in need of a regular paycheck.
Interesting post. I was being a little sarcastic (well, OK, more than a little) in my post. Obviously, there are not a lot of people wanting to move to Detroit or any of these rust belt cities on the list (Dayton, Indy, Cincy, etc) or the Great Plains (KC). I can't figure out why Chicago is on the list, but it is, tangentially, a part of the Rust Belt and its climate sucks.
I think you are losing sight of population growth. We can't cram all the additional people into the same number of houses.
A lot of brand-new suburban subdivisions in California are now virtual ghost towns, due to the overbuilding of suburbs. The real estate industry basically assumed we could keep building out suburbs forever, until people wound up buying McMansions that were a 2-hour drive from their workplaces, because they could afford them. But it ended up being unsustainable, both financially and practically.
The end result is a net surplus of housing, typically of the "McMansion" variety. What we don't have enough of (in California) is housing that is compact, affordable, and connected to existing urban regions.
1. We will certainly be building new houses soon, and rightfully so. A house in Las Vegas is no substitute for a house in Philadelphia, Dallas, Minot. A house in the outer suburbs is no substitute for one near a transit station. The new housing sector will revive - at first only niches, in the strongest metros.
2. That said, hopefully we will not overinvest in housing like we did in the bubble years
3. Given that for the period from 1945 to at least 1990 or so, we way overinvested in autocentric suburbs, relative to dense and walkable communities, it seems to me like there is still unsatisfied demand for denser, more walkable communities. I think that even with existing policies and institutional arrangements the market would move in that direction. A fortiori, if we remove some of the institutional and zoning barriers, and even more strongly if we encourage - not FORCE - more walkability.
4. THAT said, I think in the stronger metro areas there will certainly continue to be demand for new SF housing in autocentric areas. I think the private market will as usual do a good job in meeting that demand.
No other first world country has the long car commutes we've been able and willing to do based on cheap oil. Cheap oil is fast disappearing. Peak oil is here.
Sprawl has to exist. Not everyone can find a job within 20 miles of their home. Not every couple can both work within 20 miles of each other. That's why many of us have the long commute. When one person works in New York, and the partner works in Philadelphia - sprawl. When one person works in Fort Worth and the other Dallas - sprawl. When one person works in Austin and the other in San Antonio - sprawl. And no amount of public transportation would be adequate to move workers around like that.
Interesting post. I was being a little sarcastic (well, OK, more than a little) in my post. Obviously, there are not a lot of people wanting to move to Detroit or any of these rust belt cities on the list (Dayton, Indy, Cincy, etc) or the Great Plains (KC). I can't figure out why Chicago is on the list, but it is, tangentially, a part of the Rust Belt and its climate sucks.
I wonder if Chicago's climate is worse than where I live. January looks like it colder daytime highs than where I am but the nights are warmer year around. Though in summer that's probably a minus not a plus.
Sprawl has to exist. Not everyone can find a job within 20 miles of their home. Not every couple can both work within 20 miles of each other. That's why many of us have the long commute. When one person works in New York, and the partner works in Philadelphia - sprawl. When one person works in Fort Worth and the other Dallas - sprawl. When one person works in Austin and the other in San Antonio - sprawl. And no amount of public transportation would be adequate to move workers around like that.
But plenty of people figure out how to do it...my wife and I both found jobs less than a mile from home, and we live in a comparatively low-density city. And we don't even have to take public transit to work (it's better exercise to walk home)!
But plenty of people figure out how to do it...my wife and I both found jobs less than a mile from home, and we live in a comparatively low-density city. And we don't even have to take public transit to work (it's better exercise to walk home)!
When the economy collapsed in my hometown in the early 90s, both my parents found themselves unemployed after spending 20 years working within a few miles of their home. One ended up finding a job 30 miles northeast; the other 45 miles to the south. When you've got 2 kids in high school and 2 kids in college, you really don't have that many options. My uncle suddenly found his commute change from 0.75 miles to 105 miles. His wife's bridal shop went belly-up, and the job she found ended up being 45 miles away. If sprawl didn't exist, and the highway infrastructure wasn't in place to make commutes like these possible, many people would be unemployed, underemployed or forced to move.
IT folks, Teachers or Nurses may be able to find jobs just about anywhere, but when you're a specialist like a metallurgist, geologist, or a geophysicist, you're really pretty limited in your job options.
When the economy collapsed in my hometown in the early 90s, both my parents found themselves unemployed after spending 20 years working within a few miles of their home. One ended up finding a job 30 miles northeast; the other 45 miles to the south. When you've got 2 kids in high school and 2 kids in college, you really don't have that many options. My uncle suddenly found his commute change from 0.75 miles to 105 miles. His wife's bridal shop went belly-up, and the job she found ended up being 45 miles away. If sprawl didn't exist, and the highway infrastructure wasn't in place to make commutes like these possible, many people would be unemployed, underemployed or forced to move.
IT folks, Teachers or Nurses may be able to find jobs just about anywhere, but when you're a specialist like a metallurgist, geologist, or a geophysicist, you're really pretty limited in your job options.
Although if sprawl didn't exist most jobs would be more concentrated in a town or city center and more likely to be accessible by public transportation. But yea, if you're stuck in another town it might not solve the problem.
My parents have jobs in two far away places and picked their home so that it would be somewhat mid way between the two. But then my mother had to find another job, so she has a 40 mile commute west and my dad has a 20 mile commute to the east.
I don't like this idea (referring to the OP). We need to buld vertical and in designated zones. For every acre of land we build on, there needs to be two acres that are protected.
The entire American infrastructure needs to be rebuilt (rail) and improved (roads and highways). I could go on, but I am lazy.
But plenty of people figure out how to do it...my wife and I both found jobs less than a mile from home, and we live in a comparatively low-density city. And we don't even have to take public transit to work (it's better exercise to walk home)!
It depends on your career. I've done a variety of IT work over the years. When I moved back to Sacramento in 1998 I found a job and sought out a place close to where I work. My employer decided to move the jobs 22 miles out into the burbs. At the time rent was higher out there and it was difficult to find a place to rent that wasn't an apartment in a megaplex with no trees. After that job I worked closer to Downtown Sacramento. Had I moved 22 miles away I would have had to commute about 19 miles back into Sacramento. After than job I worked in various areas around the metro area and none of them were near Downtown. I ended up with a what I thought would be a steady job in Rocklin. After several years I reluctantly started looking for a place in Rocklin or Roseville because I hate commuting to work and back. Well, that job is gone. I've worked a few temp jobs around the area and declined one job in Folsom. I would have had to commute from Rocklin to Roseville had I moved there two years ago and taken the job in Folsom.
It is also the other way around. Using San Francisco as an example, most IT workers who work near Downtown there are forced to live 10-35 miles away because they can't afford to live close to their work location.
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