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Actually I am very worried not only about city population, but especially about world population. I still remember around 2010 it was announced that we were 7 billion people, now we are already 8 and I am really starting worrying.
It’s a feedback loop, the catalyst was the city failing in general, but as more people leave, the public image of the city drops and businesses leave causing the city fail even more.
^^^ Yes, it is like a spiral. Something related to the management of the city usually triggers an initial outflow of people and then the feedback loop begins.
^^^ Yes, it is like a spiral. Something related to the management of the city usually triggers an initial outflow of people and then the feedback loop begins.
It doesn't have to be, though. I can't speak on the history of Detroit, but in Ohio's rust belt cities, the initial causes were generally: suburbanization, school desegregation/busing, riots, and the big one of deindustrialization.
^^^ Yes, it is like a spiral. Something related to the management of the city usually triggers an initial outflow of people and then the feedback loop begins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JR_C
It doesn't have to be, though. I can't speak on the history of Detroit, but in Ohio's rust belt cities, the initial causes were generally: suburbanization, school desegregation/busing, riots, and the big one of deindustrialization.
Ok, let me rephrase my earlier post. Something related to the management or vitality of the city usually triggers an initial outflow of people and then the feedback loop begins.
I think the limit to population growth for a city is commute times. 1.5 hours seems to be the maximum tolerated one way.
You can try various designs to get past this limit. Public transport doesn't really work because it's slower than cars even with traffic, unless you have a super-expensive transit network that goes many places. Building more highways also hits a limit once an area is built out, and parking in the city center is also limited.
Probably the best design is edge cities, at which point the metro is really a collection of semi-indepdendent economic units contiguous with each other.
Density is another workaround, but taller building are more expensive per square foot than low lying buildings, so again there is a limit to this.
Tokyo is the largest city in the world and is still growing despite Japan shrinking on the whole. It accomplishes this with many edge cities and excellent public transit.
New York has probably hit its geographical and density limits, which is why it's losing people. The Poconos is about as far as one can be from midtown and still work there, and Manhattan is as dense as people can afford.
The difference between Tokyo and NYC is probably the edge cities of Tokyo.
Would Yonkers, White Plains, Newark, Jersey Ctiy count as edge cities for NYC?
^^^ Yes, it is like a spiral. Something related to the management of the city usually triggers an initial outflow of people and then the feedback loop begins.
But then again some cities are able to climb out of the death spiral, for instance Seattle who is well known for it’s boom and bust cycle, if it wasn’t for Microsoft I’m not so sure Seattle would’ve recovered from the Boeing bust in the 70s, perhaps it would’ve been like any other rust belt city?
In general, cities are either growing or they are in decline. It's hard to stay stagnant and not be in decline. In can happen though. Usually in wealthy cities.
The limit that will cut numbers everywhere is local food supply. Without rapid and cheap trucking and shipping, cities will be eating what they can get mostly by animal drawn wagon and small fishing boats, with possibly some train and sailing ship deliveries. Farmland that became suburban sprawl could take decades or centuries to recover.
Population growth for a city is overrated. It tends to just mean more traffic, things become less affordable (particularly housing), and population alone does not necessarily add anything meaningful to a city. Not to mention, taxes rise as more people == more demand for more public services. Which further adds to higher COL.
It does however tend to mean more economic growth, which is correlated with economic opportunity, which is a good thing.
But even that is at a loss eventually if COL begins to rise, to a point where businesses pack up and leave (to the next "affordable", lower-population city). Unless the city has other defining features that is considered attractive for businesses (for example.... a highly educated populace, public transit, global recognition, diversity, etc).
But overall I think population alone is a vastly overrated statistic for cities. Especially arbitrary city boundaries. Jacksonville for example is more populous than San Francisco, but San Francisco is an economic powerhouse competitive on a national and even global stage. While Jacksonville is a respectable city, it isn't nearly as competitive even on a regional scale, let alone a national scale like SF. It just happens to have further drawn city boundaries with more people residing in the city. It really doesn't mean anything if it isn't tied to something like more people in education, high-paying workforce, high amount of jobs available, etc.
Actually Schroeders ranks SF 6th in the world for "competitiveness." The more globally-oriented Global Association of World Cities puts SF in the alpha-minus category, with 33 cities in higher categories and 22, including Washington, Vienna, and Barcelona, in the same category. I agree with the latter ranking even though SF has a lot of soft power, since it faces severe challenges, including beyond-ridiculous housing prices, difficult commutes, and lawlessness. But it is still the most beautiful city in the U.S.
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