Wash DC needs to annex Arlington and Alexandria back (Virginia Beach: house, school)

[NOVA_guy]

Originally Posted by 16 Acres

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Please write Mark Warner and your local political leaders.

[green_mariner]

This won't work for a few reasons.

1) There are 3,159,639 people in Northern Virginia. If DC annexed Alexandria city and Arlington County, that is a combined 396,270 residents. There are still 2,763,369 people left in the rest of the NOVA region. And this segues into something else.

2) Fairfax County is part of Northern VA. It provided 355,133 votes for Hilary Clinton. Prince William County, Loundon County, all are part of Northern VA and gave Clinton alot of votes. Those 3 counties are responsible for 569,072 of Clinton's votes. Alexandria and Arlington give a combined 149,258 Clinton votes. And then other places in northern VA, Falls Church, Manassas, Manassas Park, Fredericksburg, Winchester, all supported Clinton.

3) Demographics. Northern Virginia is a diverse region. About a combined 40% of the region's population is Black, Hispanic, and Asian. This along with Whites leaning more liberal in this part of Virginia adds to the Democratic vote.

1/5 of Virginia's population is African-American, and most Blacks vote Democrat. And while they are sizable part of Northern VA's population, they are even more numerous on places like Richmond, the Tidewater region, and parts of south-central Virginia, such as Petersburg. Of the Tidewater cities, only Virginia Beach and Chesepeake supported Trump (both cities have the largest White populations in the region, and a large part of the population is military).

4) Virginia has several university towns such as Harrisonburg Charlottesville, Blacksburg,etc. University towns often lean liberal. Norfolk and Hampton are university towns with very large Black populations (Hampton is home to Hampton University, an HBCU. Norfolk is home to Old Dominion).

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by MaskedRacer

I'd be ok with DC becoming a state in fact only if they take Fairfax, Alexandria, Prince William, Loudon, and Arlington from Virginia along with PG, Montgomery, and Charles county from Maryland with them.

But the annexation to make DC a diamond again is good enough for now. Hope one day it becomes a mainstream idea.

If it's a Republican state that you want, you'd also have to get rid of most of the Tidewater cities, Richmond (and Henrico County), and parts of southeast Virginia.

[green_mariner]

Giving Alexandria and Arlington back to DC won't make much difference.

[spencer114]

As for VA Beach and Chesapeake... the GOP has likely lost those too.
Trump won VA Beach by about 8,000 votes, Chesapeake by 1,000 votes.
I believe Northam won both.

[webster]

Originally Posted by green_mariner

If it's a Republican state that you want, you'd also have to get rid of most of the Tidewater cities, Richmond (and Henrico County), and parts of southeast Virginia.

It really is bizarre that the Virginia 2nd Congressional District is blue. One might expect an area heavy with military bases and industries would be red. Bill Whitehurst (GOP) represented the area for 16 years, even running unopposed. He publicly has endorsed Biden. For the GOP to have a place in VA, it needs to find the moderate right of the middle ground. There was a time when people from both parties ran unopposed, they could garner support from both parties. Tom Downing (d) was another who ran unopposed. David Satterfield, Tom Bliley had tremendous bipartiasn support as moderate republicans. Their area is now blue.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by spencer114

As for VA Beach and Chesapeake... the GOP has likely lossy those too.
Trump won VA by about 8,000 votes, Chesapeake by 1,000 votes.
I believe Northam won both.

It further proves a point I was making. Giving Alexandria and Arlington away won't do a thing. Hilary Clinton got about close to 150,000 votes from both places combined. Fairfax County gave Clinton over 355,000 votes on its own. Actually, DC was shaped like a diamond thanks to Fairfax County. It gave away Alexandria to be part of DC, and the DC gave Alexandria County back to Virginia in 1846.

Most of the Tidewater, other than VB and Chesapeake, voted for Clinton. And then consider the many university towns, and the Richmond area.

Virginia gave Hilary Clinton 1,981,473 votes. Close to 570,000 came from 3 counties: Loundon, Fairfax, and Prince William. Arlington and Alexandria being singled out is ridiculous.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by 16 Acres

We're here to help.

Let us know what we can do.

Well, that's up to Alexandria and Arlington. Only they can decide if the want to be in Virginia or DC. It isn't up to anyone who doesn't live there.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by webster

It really is bizarre that the Virginia 2nd Congressional District is blue. One might expect an area heavy with military bases and industries would be red. Bill Whitehurst (GOP) represented the area for 16 years, even running unopposed. He publicly has endorsed Biden. For the GOP to have a place in VA, it needs to find the moderate right of the middle ground. There was a time when people from both parties ran unopposed, they could garner support from both parties. Tom Downing (d) was another who ran unopposed. David Satterfield, Tom Bliley had tremendous bipartiasn support as moderate republicans. Their area is now blue.

I wonder if some of Trump's comments about "I like soldiers who weren't captured" didn't do many favors. VA Beach is a Republican city, and the military plays a big role. At the same time, Virginia Beach Republican may not be the same brand of GOP as a Mississippi Republican. Virginia politics isn't the same as other parts of the South.

[NOVA_guy]

Originally Posted by green_mariner

If it's a Republican state that you want, you'd also have to get rid of most of the Tidewater cities, Richmond (and Henrico County), and parts of southeast Virginia.

Do Richmond and Hampton Roads have enough people voting Democratic to offset the rural vote in the rest of the state? In the latest poll released today by Post-Schar School, Biden is at 52% while Trump is at 41% in VA. Richmond the city is super liberal but the suburbs are pretty moderate with a tilt towards the GOP, in 2016 Chesterfield County went for Trump by like 2 or 3 points. The other surrounding counties there like Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent County went for Trump as well although Henrico and Chesterfield are the biggest counties, places like Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent still matter because when you add in those votes with the rest of the state outside of the big metro areas, it may not be enough for a Dem to get across the finish line, this is what tends to happen in most southern states so it'd be interesting to see what the vote share would be like in VA if you remove NoVa.

Virginia Beach is the largest locality in HR but it's still GOP friendly, similar to Chesterfield he won there by like 2 or 3 points and it typically leans conservative... so Virginia is definitely changing albeit slowly but I'd say it's still GOP friendly. Without NoVa, Trump would stand a decent chance at winning the state and a moderate republican that's not Trump could easily still win the surrounding suburbs in HR and Richmond, NoVa I'm not so sure since over the years it's gone from moderate to super liberal.

All that said, outside of Texas and North Carolina, I'd say Virginia is one of the most fascinating states in terms of politics, there's been a lot of growth and change over the last decade. It'll be interesting to see how things look after 2020. But I don't really buy the argument that VA is some super liberal state, when you look at the metro areas (outside of NoVa) it's more moderate with a slight lean towards GOP... for now.