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I've noticed that there are significantly fewer people in DC this year ('09) than in previous years. DC has always been a hub of activity for interns, visitors, politicians, lawyers, and many others. I used to compare it to Vegas in terms of the movement of people.
However, this year, the quantity of people seems to have dropped sharply. (This is my impression, I'm wondering if anyone can back it up.) Also, many businesses and entertainment venues look empty or have closed.
If you adopt the Recession theory, then DC was actually supposed to hold up a lot better than other US cities. The government is and always has been a steady source of jobs, attracting people from all over the country, so it's unclear why it would suffer the same fate as the other cities.
Your anecdotal evidence that there are 'fewer people in DC' is hardly the same as fact. The facts are that there are more people in DC now than in years past. The population hasn't dropped and certainly not 'sharply.' Many people are flocking here in hopes of snagging a 'stimulus job'--and that is exactly why hiring is up at the same time unemployment rates are increasing.
Furthermore DC has on to jobs longer than other areas. Most cities started seeing major layoffs early in 2008 and some in late 2007. Major layoffs in DC didn't really start until a year later--Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009. DC is looking to come out of the recession at the same time other places do. Meaning DC will have experienced a shorter recession than the rest of the country.
If you can clarify...do you live in DC or were you here during the Thanksgiving break? Its usually dead in DC around Thanksgiving so perhaps that's why you got that impression. Did you drop in on DC during Thanksgiving this year but during another (busier) time a previous year?
I can only speculate that perhaps there are less interns b/c these are usually unpaid or very low-paying positions and parents end up footing the bills. It is quite expensive to live in DC of course, so perhaps these out-of-state and recession-wary parents told their kids they couldn't afford to foot the bill this year. New York City of course has been hit hard by the downturn and many interns hail from up north.
As far as the downturn...those I know personally in the area who have been laid off are in the construction industry. I do know that construction's picking up again, however.
If anything, people are probably not going out as much b/c they are trying to save money during this downturn. The perception exists that things are bad, so they better lay low, even if they do live in one of the most recession-proof areas of the nation. I have heard that several local municipalities face serious budget shortfalls for the coming year, so it will be interesting to see the impact there.
I've also noticed not as many "guest workers"/"illegals" or whatever you want to call them roaming the streets and shopping malls as previously. I think many have returned to their home countries.
DC the city is probably less recession-proof than DC the region. There are many hubs of commercial and residential concentration throughout the region. Look at a Metro map and each station outside of DC proper represents one of these hubs. Plus Tysons. There are many people who work in one suburb and live in another and rarely, if ever, set foot in DC proper.
As another poster mentioned, the city of DC tends to slow down between Thanksgiving week and Jan. 1.
As a proxy for a recession index, I read recently that the DC region is one of the few in the nation where real estate values have actually increased over the past 5 years (albeit very modestly)
I tend to agree with Kodaka. DC is without a doubt one of the more recession-resistant areas of the country due to several things:
1) Government presence
2) Government contractors' presence (Drive around outside Washington, DC and you'll see names on buildings you're sure to recognize).
I travel around the country quite a bit and just eyeballing things, DC appears to be holding up much better than other parts of the country because government money is still flowing. Sure there are some issues with commercial real estate that this area is working its way through, but by and large DC is holding up pretty well and the only buildings with occupancy issues are the ones that were built during the property bubble and can't charge the rents they anticipated and they're trying to hold out for better prices...good luck with that
I've noticed that there are significantly fewer people in DC this year ('09) than in previous years.
...
Are there some holes in my thinking?
Yes. There are more people currently living in DC now than at any time since the 1960s. In addition, the metro region is bigger than it has ever been, and the job market is among the most stable in the country. Your anecdotal evidence appears to be quite off.
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