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well...sure is looking interesting...at work this evening....then off for a trip to the Twin Cities for family reasons Thursday. But would appear GFS is at least somewhat back to the idea of a storm versus yesterday it had nothing.
In terms of impact if storm does wrap up like it is supposed to would appear more and more likely a heavy wet snow will accumulate somewhere from near Grand Forks east-northeast across northwest and north central Minnesota. Seems as if the HPC folks in their snowfall are leaning a bit left of the Euro track.... sometimes if these system nearly close of at 500 mb the low will track more north and west than progged.
But have to travel Thursday morning so dont want too much. It is a bit early for this much snow in the red river valley as we are a bit lower than either side....but there has been early season snows in the higher terrain of northern Minnesota talking 1500-2000 ft elevation there versus more like 500-700 in the Red River valley.
Right now though several fires threatening communiites in northwest MN into Manitoba due to strong south winds today of 40 mph and an extremely dry fuels (grasses-trees).
System is now entering Montana now with Cutbank over to snow and 33 degrees at 11 pm CDT. Incoming models this late evening (00z run 10/3) still shows a storm system taking shape from South Dakota into Minnesota then to northwestern Ontario Wed aftn-Thu just how strong it is in question...but does appear a 6 to 10 inch band of snow is likely somewhere over perhaps central into northeast North Dakota (more questionable) into northwestern Minnesota (more likely). Appears to be northwest of Duluth.
Havent seen an early season big storm like this since 1985 in northeastern ND when a foot of snow fell in early October.
Still looking pretty potent....looks like a very heavy wet snow with winds over 30 mph....could be bad for trees with leaves on them. 06z model runs appear on track and pretty consistent....though NAM likely overdone with precip as we have noticed it often over-develops systems and produces too much model qpf.
Still looking pretty potent....looks like a very heavy wet snow with winds over 30 mph....could be bad for trees with leaves on them. 06z model runs appear on track and pretty consistent....though NAM likely overdone with precip as we have noticed it often over-develops systems and produces too much model qpf.
If you have any webcams from the area, please share. Or stats on how uncommon this is for October 3rd.
Here's one from Billings Montana but I cant find a clear shot to compare to. Whiteout conditions there.
Theres actually a building in this picture. Winds gusting to 40mph in parts of Montana.
Interesting. The air isn't as cold as I first thought, just a few degrees colder than here. I mean 3,500feet snow level would indicate a temp of around 10c at sea level which it is here right now.
When you enter the site, you will need to click on webcams on the left menu to see the icons, and then you can click on the little camera icons to see pictures.
--Dan
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Radar October 3, 2012
