What Location will Dec 7-9 Snowstorm/Blizzard hit hardest? (snowfall, Chicago, days)

[Cambium]

We had 3 snowstorms across Central and Eastern U.S in last 3 weeks as the pattern is active... Each predicted 7-14 days in advance. Another one is coming next week...




I'll do things a little different... Take a guess where the storm will hit the hardest




This is the last 4 runs of the GFS model. Look close. Notice Chicago is Rain for 2 of them. Snowstorm for 1. Rain to Snow for another. Point is... NOBODY KNOWS the exact path of this storm yet.



What big City do you think will get the most snow from it?? Remember... Path is Key and can even shift day of!

[Cambium]

Winner gets bragging rights.


Guess which location will have the most snow vs the other choices in the poll.

[Cambium]

And that system will affect the Northeast as well but the poll is not for Northeast.


Look what NWS NY says. What happens in Pacific will determine what happens here.

National Weather Service New York NY
436 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Generally tranquil and seasonable conditions heading into Sunday as
upper flow flattens or becomes slight ridged...with high pressure
building over the region.

Thereafter...significant divergence in models handling of the late
weekend/early next week eastward evolution of a deep Western US
trough.

The main difference is whether the base of the trough
closing off into Northern Mexico this weekend travels with the
parent northern stream shortwave or gets left behind.

The
implication being...a phased eastward moving trough would bring
potential for a southern low and significant precip tracking up the
east coast for Sun Night into early next week.

Meanwhile...the
latter detached scenario would just bring another weak trough
through the region with perhaps some light precip.

Either scenario
is in play...with SBU ensemble sensitivity pointing at interplay of
western Pacific and northern Pacific shortwave energy over the next
48-60 hrs playing a key role in downstream evolution of this trough
for the late week/weekend. Based on the complex interaction...may
continue to see flip-flop of operation models and considerable
spread in ensembles for this time frame for the next few days.

[Cambium]

Todays 12z GFS says... Who ever picked Sioux Falls, SD would win.


Spin the wheel, nobody knows. Take a guess and see where it snows.




We will get consistency on location (not exact) in 4 days but the poll will be closed by then.


All we can do is keep watching the models and see where the lucky winner will be when the time comes. (7 days)

[Infamous92]

I'm rolling with Green Bay on this one, although I'm thinking some random small town on the opposite side of the lake could receive the ultimate jackpot, you never know with lake effect snow.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Infamous92

I'm rolling with Green Bay on this one, although I'm thinking some random small town on the opposite side of the lake could receive the ultimate jackpot, you never know with lake effect snow.

Maybe. Nobody is locked in yet.

Here us what todays Euro12z just said..

Heaviest snows is typically on NW/W side of a low.

I haven't checked the snowfall map yet but this looks like a few locations in the poll are involved.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

That low needs to move about 150-200 miles to the south for Chicago to get all snow

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

^^

That low needs to move about 150-200 miles to the south for Chicago to get all snow

Yeah, where it turns Northeast from Texas region could be the key. Plenty of time!


This is the snowfall total from the Euro12z. Looks like Minneapolis would win from the list?


Lots of model runs to go. Fun Fun

[Larry Caldwell]

Looks to me like West Glacier will get hit the hardest.

[Saritra]

None of these. It's going to be Kirksville, Missouri. It's in the snow area on all four model runs in the original post.