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"Conclusions: We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely below that during the Dalton minimum around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected at a high confidence level."
So was the "low peak" projection for the 21st century accurate? We had both very hot and cold records in the past 15 years.
Goes by cycles rather than decades or centuries.
From NASA Dec. 21, 2006:
"Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one. Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 “looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco."
So what actually happened?
Instead of being “one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began,” it turns out that solar cycle 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than 200 years.
And people still out there believe in future predictions of sun, sea level, & global temps.
Interesting read on how they are predicting the solar peak.
More info with link.
"The most accurate method for predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle is to use the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. But with solar minimum likely to be three years away, who can wait that long?
The strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum is a very accurate indicator of the maximum amplitude of the following solar cycle, as per this graph from Dr David Hathaway of NASA"
"In summary, a few methodologies are givings us predictions for Solar Cycle 25 which straddle the amplitudes of the Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum which had maximum amplitudes of 49.2 and 48.7 respectively"
The sun has gone completely blank. This may not last too long, but at least for now, there are currently no visible sunspots – a sure sign of an approaching solar minimum - and this is the first spotless day on the sun since 2014. In fact, there has been only one spotless day on the sun since 2011 – until today that is. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. Solar cycle number 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.
Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.
Finally, if history is any guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere - and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830 (above).
Both of these historical periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures in an era that is now referred to by many scientists as the “Little Ice Age”. One of the reasons prolonged periods of weak solar activity may be associated with colder global temperatures has to do with a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. Research studies in recent years have found that in times of low solar activity - where solar winds are typically weak - more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.
At what point will these low or no sun spots begin to cool the earth? We've been getting record months year after year. Maybe AGW is a dominant driver over all other factors right now.
At what point will these low or no sun spots begin to cool the earth? We've been getting record months year after year. Maybe AGW is a dominant driver over all other factors right now.
I'm not seeing a correlation
How come 2008 isnt on your Top 10 hottest years and look at the sunspots then.
Pretty sure there is a huge lag time too, but we been peaking with the sun.
In fact maybe there isnt a lag time. 1998 and 2015 come to mind for hot global years, right? Look at the sun chart. Thats exactly when we reached the peak sun in Cycle 23 and Cycle 24.
And this.. you think its coincidence the warming and Ice Ages came during Solar Maxima and Minimum?
Pretty sure there is a huge lag time too, but we been peaking with the sun.
In fact maybe there isnt a lag time. 1998 and 2015 come to mind for hot global years, right? Look at the sun chart. Thats exactly when we reached the peak sun in Cycle 23 and Cycle 24.
Ocean cycles, and sun spots definitely play a role, but the more I read, the more I'm becoming convinced that GHGs are dominant right now. Though I don't buy into the dire climate model projections
Quote:
However, many scientists are not convinced. Georg Feulner, the deputy chair of the Earth system analysis research domain at the Potsdam Institute on Climate Change Research, has studied the effect a solar minimum might have on Earth's climate. His research has shown that temperature drops correlated to a less intense sun would be insignificant compared with anthropogenic global warming, according to the Washington Post.
Regarding the Maunder Minimum predicted by Zharkova, Feulner said, "The expected decrease in global temperature would be 0.1 degrees Celsius at most, compared to about 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times by the year 2030," Feulner told the Post. Furthermore, this isn't the first time research has predicted waning heat from the sun, to which experts also said that man-made global warming won't be trumped.
Ocean cycles, and sun spots definitely play a role
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
I'm not seeing a correlation
So on one hand you agree it has a role, on the other you can't see the correlation.
We will never see a 100% exact correlation. Look at the whole picture.
You've taken on a different approach to things lately. Not sure if you're reading the wrong things or just your opinion changed because something happened, but I remember it being different before recently.
Between the PDO and now this. We both can find things that support our opinion, I get that, (it gets old after time) but if you think the Sun doesn't affect weather & climate on Earth that's crazy. It doesn't take a genius to see what the long term effect is.. Just look at the graph. We're still in Modern Maxima, hence all the hot years recently
But you cant say "hey look, the sun is quiet, its gonna be cold tomorrow" It doesn't work like that.
Also understand Urban Heat Islands and "local" warming is different now. We didn't have Jumbo airplanes and blacktop in the 1800s. So you have to factor that in as well...or at least remember it.
I think it's fascinating , I always loved Science , but I don't think we should go back and forth and try to prove one theory or another. There's still a ton of work and research to be done.. I myself will stick to NASA with the info and charts provided.. I know there's more to learn!
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Sun Goes Blank
