Predict what the climate of your city will be in 50 or 100 years (2013, Chicago)
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I don't predict too much of a change. Many records reset, some extra summer precipitation, and about 1.5 F warmer on average year round. Also a one-off May snow (unclear of what year, but second Monday of May)
Averages are 2085-2114, so average around 2100 (in 85 years)
So I took the data from Heathrow from 2000-2014 to see what the difference was between the 1981-2010 averages.
As expected, winter is slightly warmer, April is 1C warmer and October is a bit warmer too.
What surprises me is that August has gotten cooler maxima.. this is in part due to some awful Augusts in this period..
In the period 2000-2014:
5/15 Augusts were above average, only two of these by more than 1C
1/15 was average
9/15 below average
Sunshine data doesn't look great either.. we have recorded two of the dullest Augusts in history in this period, same with June, and July had some awful months sunshine wise as well.
Overall, the summer period 2007-2012 is probably the reason for minimal summer warming, i'd like to assume that it is just a horrendous anomaly, otherwise the 1991-2020 stats will not look so great for sunshine if they happen again.
So I took the data from Heathrow from 2000-2014 to see what the difference was between the 1981-2010 averages.
As expected, winter is slightly warmer, April is 1C warmer and October is a bit warmer too.
What surprises me is that August has gotten cooler maxima.. this is in part due to some awful Augusts in this period..
In the period 2000-2014:
5/15 Augusts were above average, only two of these by more than 1C
1/15 was average
9/15 below average
Sunshine data doesn't look great either.. we have recorded two of the dullest Augusts in history in this period, same with June, and July had some awful months sunshine wise as well.
Overall, the summer period 2007-2012 is probably the reason for minimal summer warming, i'd like to assume that it is just a horrendous anomaly, otherwise the 1991-2020 stats will not look so great for sunshine if they happen again.
Not much change here for most months, aside for February which is 2F colder than the 30 year average.
All in all the last 15 years are slightly cooler. Most months vary by 0.2-0.5F in both average max and Mean temp.
So much for the regional climate models that predict Chicago summers to be like Arkansas by 2030
Not much change here for most months, aside for February which is 2F colder than the 30 year average.
All in all the last 15 years are slightly cooler. Most months vary by 0.2-0.5F in both average max and Mean temp.
So much for the [URL="http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/winmigrating/glwinmig_il.html"]regional climate models[/URL] that predict Chicago summers to be like Arkansas by 2030
Yes, I reckon we are just an anomaly in our country, as I reckon quite a few places in the UK may have actually cooled down in the 2000-2014 period. We got off comparatively lightly in the horrid train of summers between 2007-2012 compared to the rest of the country.
I also guess that being a continental climate, Chicago will cool down in winter if anything, as higher SSTs in the pacific would surely mean a colder set up over the Midwest in winter on average?
I don't buy the rapid climate change theory, yes we are warming up, but very slowly, and looking back at history we have seen changes like this before. Back in the Roman times, we had vineyards growing over much of southern England, likewise the medieval warm period was probably warmer than the period that we are in today - there are accounts of some brutal heatwaves around this time in written history.
I reckon in the next 50-100 years, the most evident changes will be outside of summer. We may get October approaching 18C and April 17C, which would not be bad.
Yes, I reckon we are just an anomaly in our country, as I reckon quite a few places in the UK may have actually cooled down in the 2000-2014 period. We got off comparatively lightly in the horrid train of summers between 2007-2012 compared to the rest of the country.
I also guess that being a continental climate, Chicago will cool down in winter if anything, as higher SSTs in the pacific would surely mean a colder set up over the Midwest in winter on average?
I don't buy the rapid climate change theory, yes we are warming up, but very slowly, and looking back at history we have seen changes like this before. Back in the Roman times, we had vineyards growing over much of southern England, likewise the medieval warm period was probably warmer than the period that we are in today - there are accounts of some brutal heatwaves around this time in written history.
I reckon in the next 50-100 years, the most evident changes will be outside of summer. We may get October approaching 18C and April 17C, which would not be bad.
Over the last 20+ years the Atlantic has been in it's positive oscillation. If it goes negative (which I think it's about to do so) the UK may see colder period. As for Warmer SST's in the Pacific and it's influence on the Midwest, I guess it depends. El Nino's (warmer SST's) usually mean milder drier winters here. With less of an impact during the summer (apparently bias towards a cooler in August for some reason) However the above normal SST's in the North Pacific the last couple of winter have caused more frequent dips in the jet stream over Eastern CONUS and thus colder temp.
I severely hope we do not enter into a colder period again.. the pattern of the last couple of years seemed to have suited us quite well for my tastes - mild winters and decent summers, just the crap Augusts that will not stop happening..
That pattern has given you cold winters but not the greatest summers, though
I severely hope we do not enter into a colder period again.. the pattern of the last couple of years seemed to have suited us quite well for my tastes - mild winters and decent summers, just the crap Augusts that will not stop happening..
That pattern has given you cold winters but not the greatest summers, though
Well last June and August were ok, July sucked royally which ruined the summer for me. In 2013 June and July were horrible August was average..... However 2012 was great. 2010, and 2011 were good too.
Well last June and August were ok, July sucked royally which ruined the summer for me. In 2013 June and July were horrible August was average..... However 2012 was great. 2010, and 2011 were good too.
Our last July was decent, July 2013 very good.. apart from that there are no summer months that stand out here for good reasons since 2006..
The only decent July in our horrible 2007-2012 period was 2010 which recorded 75% sunshine.
The last time we had an August over 1C above average was 2003. Last time we had an August with above average sunshine was 10 years ago in 2005. Quite shocking really
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2010, and 2011 were good too.
