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Seen this coming from over 7 days away. Lets see what the end result is.
Dec 22nd
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
BTW - I'm watching the storm for around the 30th. Hoping a transfer is made south of NYC!!
Dec 24th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Overnight Models trended colder for Thursday 29th storm.(Euro & Canadian has some snow for us)
Dec 26th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
So we got a storm coming Thursday and Friday in the Northeast. The storm develops too late for any big snows south of NYC.
There is Pacific moisture with this so what happens when you combine that with the Polar Jet? SNOW.
First...Here's discussion from NWS NY
Now, what the Euro is showing..
There's actually gulf moisture too now.. Very complex to explain in 1 post.
A look at 4 most recent models.
GFS seems the warmest with less precip and a faster storm.
Euro is most amped with precip and snow. (6-18" from Northern CT northward)
The thin red line = 925mb freezing line. So if you are south or east of that line its above freezing at 2500' but below freezing at 4500' if north or west of that thicker blue line.
Here is the latest Euro00z snowfall totals. Since last week Maine and New England were in the spot light for this to be a significant snowstorm. Only difference now is the storm is forming south more so points south will get snow too. Or sleet!
Looks like this one will mostly miss Pittsburgh. 1.6" is nothing... but GFS is looking more around 3 or 4" which would give us a decent white new years.
Laurel Highlands southeast of Pittsburgh looks like they may get a 6"+ storm which would be great for some skiing!
Looks like this one will mostly miss Pittsburgh. 1.6" is nothing... but GFS is looking more around 3 or 4" which would give us a decent white new years.
Laurel Highlands southeast of Pittsburgh looks like they may get a 6"+ storm which would be great for some skiing!
Good point, Skiing! And supposed to stay cold for weekend until rain will wash things out next Tuesday. Keep us posted, I'm curious what is going on there. Problem is you are too far from the coastal storm so you'll only get the frontal moisture or the moisture from the storm in Quebec
One reason I got into looking at the models is because of this.. They can put a high rain total and adjust downwards over time, but God forbid they start higher with snow totals then adjust down. #ConservativeWithSnow
For those trying to catch up... A storm is cutting across Canada, a new coastal storm will form off NJ coast and move up the coast and strengthen fast and hard as it does. You'll have Gulf Of Mexico moisture getting pulled into it as well.
Heads up for wind where the heavy wet snow falls.
Latest Discussion from NWS Boston
Quote:
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1027 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016
Details...
Wed night...Looks to be dry during this period with near normal
temperatures with temps falling back to lower to mid 20s. Clouds
will increase across northern Mass after midnight.
Thu-Thu night...Both the 00Z models and associated ensembles
signaling a strong, digging H5 trough diving SE into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes early Thursday. While parent low remains south of
Hudson Bay, continue to see development of secondary low pressure
along triple point frontal system during Thursday, along with good moisture working into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. Models
show good agreement of explosive cyclogenesis around the NJ coast
late Thu into Thu evening. GFS has low at 991 hPa at 21Z Thu,
dropping to 975 hPa by 06Z Fri, and similar pressure falls on the
GGEM and ECMWF, though still some question on exact track of the low.
Will see potential of good snow growth Thu night as the low passes
across SE Mass, but some question of amounts as rain/snow ratio
remains at around 10:1. In any event, should see period of moderate
to heavy snow at times late Thu into Thu night across portions of
interior southern New England, with the best chance of heavy snows
across the higher inland terrain of the Worcester hills and the E
slopes of the Berkshires, as well as along the Route 2 corridor and
portions of the I-91 area. Expect mainly rain across the coastal
plain. In between, will see some mix with rain Thu afternoon, but
will become all snow Thu night.
Where it remains all snow, potential continues for over 6 inches of
heavy, wet snow, then amounts drop off quickly S and E of a Lawrence
to Worcester to Springfield line.
Increasing wind on the back side as the surface low rapidly
deepens Thu night could be an issue in itself across the coastal
plain with advisory criteria gusts possible and also an issue when
combined with any plastering of heavy wet snow over the northern
interior.
Anyone who doesn't know, or wants to see what "BOMBOGENESIS" means... watch on Thursday, its gonna happen. It's been a while!! These are awesome storms to watch.
Euro12z just loaded..
Thursday 7am.
See the weak 998mb Storm over Ontario? See how the isobars are pushing southeast? It's ready to make the transfer to the coastal storm. Then watch...
Friday 7am BOOM. Already a 967mb Low over Maine. INSANE development between 7am Thursday and 7am Friday.
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#ConservativeWithSnow
