Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Looks like first severe outbreak of the year could happen tomorrow.
Quote:
...Arklatex to the Ohio Valley...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues northeast towards
the upper Midwest, a strong low-level jet is forecast to organize
across the Arklatex through the mid-day hours, before strengthening
and translating northeast towards the Ohio Valley through the
overnight hours. In conjunction with this evolution, the surface
warm sector (characterized by dew points in the lower/mid 60s along
its northern fringes) will stream northward, reaching areas from
southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana through the period. South
of the warm front, despite little/modest low-level heating and
related buoyancy, favorably moist low levels should support upwards
of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of the Mid-South by afternoon,
with values decreasing to 200-400 J/kg across the Ohio Valley.
Countering these lower values of buoyancy, a strong kinematic
profile will evolve across much of the region, especially from
northern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley. Within this region,
925-850mb flow around 60-70 kt will contribute to sizable values of
storm-relative helicity through the evening hours. In turn, as a
narrow band of convection organizes from the Arklatex to the Ozarks
through the day, shear profiles should encourage several bowing/LEWP
structures, with embedded supercells possible. Furthermore, forecast
soundings and high-res guidance depict a considerable component of
low-level shear perpendicular to several bowing segments, enhancing
the potential for tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong --
during the afternoon and evening hours. These cells will then race
towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and
overnight. Moist adiabatic low-level profiles, while not conducive
for high values of buoyancy, may still prove favorable for a few
swaths of damaging winds (with an attendant line-embedded tornado
threat), as any low-level rotating elements will enhance upward
vertical motion and convective intensity.
Outside of the main band of convection, although forcing for ascent
will not be particularly strong earlier in the day, an isolated
discrete supercell or two may form across the Mid-South within
warm/moist low-level confluence Saturday afternoon. Favorable
storm-relative helicity and effective shear would support a
conditional damaging wind and tornado threat during this time frame
as well.
Jet stream still dipped to Mexico. Snowing in Arizona. Might be down to 3000'. Flagstaff 6 inches of snow.
I see California mountains got some too. 3-4" in Whatcom, WA north of Seattle.
Pacific flow right into BC and Washington. 5000' temps at -5C or colder
It's odd to see a trough in the West like that. It's too bad it doesn't dip further West then the moisture feed could develop a Pineapple Express to California.
It's odd to see a trough in the West like that. It's too bad it doesn't dip further West then the moisture feed could develop a Pineapple Express to California.
Here's the current upper flow.. Need that Pacific Ridge to flatten down to create the Pineapple express. I think when there's a Pineapple express Alaska is cold?. Just assume because a trough over the Pacific would help push a West-East flow into California.
Here's the current upper flow.. Need that Pacific Ridge to flatten down to create the Pineapple express. I think when there's a Pineapple express Alaska is cold?. Just assume because a trough over the Pacific would help push a West-East flow into California.
We need it to ridge up in the west and dig down deep in my area and bring us 4" of rain and lows in the 30's.
But we know there is no chance of any rain for my area unless we get a few small pop corn showers next week as the air starts to muggy up.
* Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1100 AM until
600 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
