Winter Thread 2018-19 (Northern Hemisphere) (climate, snowfall, warm, averages)

[BMI]

Originally Posted by tij

Minneapolis has warmed more like the prairies than in Eastern Canada... from 20/4 to 23/8 in January... Does the persistent snow in places like Montréal initially limit warming?

I noticed that Minneapolis used to be a bit colder than Montreal but now is slightly
warmer. East getting ripped off again, not sure why. Moscow used to be colder
than Montreal too ....now Moscow is much warmer in january too, crazy.

The king of warming (every month, not just winter) is Phoenix, Arizona...

1941-1970 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 70.3F
1981-2010 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 75.1F
Almost 5 degrees warmer....mostly the lows ...Phoenix average lows are now more like Yuma.

Phoenix 1941-1970............Phoenix 1981-2910
64.8/37.6...........jan...........67.2/45.6
69.3/40.8...........feb...........70.7/48.7
74.5/44.8...........mar..........76.9/53.5
83.6/51.8...........apr...........85.2/60.2
92.9/59.6...........may.........94.8/69.4
101.5/67.7.........jun..........103.9/77.7
104.8/77.5.........aug..........106.1/83.5
102.2/76.0.........sep..........104.4/82.7
98.4/69.1...........oct...........99.8/76.9
87.6/56.8...........nov..........88.5/64.8
74.7/44.8...........dec..........75.5/52.7
66.4/38.5...........nov..........66.0/44.8

Dramatically warmer lows! For example...march low now warmer than april low was!

Las Vegas, Nevada ...same thing, average annual temp now 69.4F ...was 65.8F

Las Vegas 1941-1970..........Las Vegas 1981-2010
55.7/32.6...........jan............58.0/39.4
61.3/36.9...........feb............62.5/43.4
67.8/41.7...........mar...........70.3/49.4
77.5/50.0...........apr............78.3/56.1
87.5/59.0...........may...........88.9/65.8
97.2/67.4...........jun............98.7/74.6
103.9/75.3..........jul............104.2/80.9
101.5/73.3..........aug..........102.2/79.3
94.8/65.4............sep...........94.0/71.1
81.0/53.1............oct...........80.6/58.5
65.7/40.8...........nov...........66.3/46.5
56.7/33.7...........dec...........56.6/38.7

Again mainly dramatically warmer lows....average january low in Las Vegas was just barely
above freezing now almost 7 degrees warmer!

This strong warming trend is mostly an Arizona/southern Nevada thing,
farther east in New Mexico no such big warming, maybe a degree at most,
even a slight “cooling” of the average highs for Albuquerque,
comparing 1941-1970 data with 1981-2010 data ...Albuquerque shows only a very slight
increase....average annual temperature 56.8F to 57.2F ....nothing like farther west.

[LKJ1988]

[quote=chicagogeorge;54190506]We've had at least as many above normal months as we've had below normal during the winter these past few years.


What we have been seeing is large gyrations between extremes of cold and warmth these past few winters.


Here is a comparison of the Mean temperatures for the winters between 2011 and 2018, with the 1981-2010 normals for ORD. Pretty big year to year swings with January averaging a little bit above the 30 year normal, February down about a degree and December up nearly 4F these past 9 years when compared to the 1981-2010 normals! So January's positive departure basically cancels out February's negative departure and your left with December being +4F which means the winters are warmer when compared with the 1981-2010 means.
************************************************** ************************************************** *

That light blue over FL seems to be about right. We keep getting big swings from around 80- 82 inland, 74- 78 at my place on the gulf, but also a few days of highs in the 50's and many more in the 60's. So if i avg it out to date we have been below normal on temps this month so far. But we are getting behind on rain at only .65" this month so far. Hope we get a 1" late tonite and Sunday, but if i were to bet i would say we get under .60" total. I have only had 3 days of 80 or more this month and that was the first 3 days of the month. Nothing like Jan 1988 when we had blazing mid 80's.

[Omegaraptor]

Originally Posted by BMI

I noticed that Minneapolis used to be a bit colder than Montreal but now is slightly
warmer. East getting ripped off again, not sure why. Moscow used to be colder
than Montreal too ....now Moscow is much warmer in january too, crazy.

The king of warming (every month, not just winter) is Phoenix, Arizona...

1941-1970 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 70.3F
1981-2010 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 75.1F
Almost 5 degrees warmer....mostly the lows ...Phoenix average lows are now more like Yuma.

Phoenix 1941-1970............Phoenix 1981-2910
64.8/37.6...........jan...........67.2/45.6
69.3/40.8...........feb...........70.7/48.7
74.5/44.8...........mar..........76.9/53.5
83.6/51.8...........apr...........85.2/60.2
92.9/59.6...........may.........94.8/69.4
101.5/67.7.........jun..........103.9/77.7
104.8/77.5.........aug..........106.1/83.5
102.2/76.0.........sep..........104.4/82.7
98.4/69.1...........oct...........99.8/76.9
87.6/56.8...........nov..........88.5/64.8
74.7/44.8...........dec..........75.5/52.7
66.4/38.5...........nov..........66.0/44.8

Dramatically warmer lows! For example...march low now warmer than april low was!

Las Vegas, Nevada ...same thing, average annual temp now 69.4F ...was 65.8F

Las Vegas 1941-1970..........Las Vegas 1981-2010
55.7/32.6...........jan............58.0/39.4
61.3/36.9...........feb............62.5/43.4
67.8/41.7...........mar...........70.3/49.4
77.5/50.0...........apr............78.3/56.1
87.5/59.0...........may...........88.9/65.8
97.2/67.4...........jun............98.7/74.6
103.9/75.3..........jul............104.2/80.9
101.5/73.3..........aug..........102.2/79.3
94.8/65.4............sep...........94.0/71.1
81.0/53.1............oct...........80.6/58.5
65.7/40.8...........nov...........66.3/46.5
56.7/33.7...........dec...........56.6/38.7

Again mainly dramatically warmer lows....average january low in Las Vegas was just barely
above freezing now almost 7 degrees warmer!

This strong warming trend is mostly an Arizona/southern Nevada thing,
farther east in New Mexico no such big warming, maybe a degree at most,
even a slight “cooling” of the average highs for Albuquerque,
comparing 1941-1970 data with 1981-2010 data ...Albuquerque shows only a very slight
increase....average annual temperature 56.8F to 57.2F ....nothing like farther west.

The hotter nights in the desert are the result of growing UHI and more AC. Arizona State University did a study on the UHI in Phoenix - it increases nighttime temps by 3°F.

There’s a similar effect in Portland. Average early morning lows in Portland are about 58°F in summer, but if you go down into the valley the average is more like 52°F. Although Portland’s unique topography contributes to this, UHI also has a slight effect. In the 1941-70 period the average low was 55°F, but that also has to do with the cooler than normal summers in the 1950s, including the crummer of 1954. The August avg high jumped almost two full degrees when the 1950s were wiped off the 30 year period. I think it’s mostly topography here - same reason as to why Redding, CA is hotter than Sacramento, CA despite being north of it.

[ral31]

Thunderstorms came thru overnight last night; more intense than I expected with tornado & severe warnings to my north. I heard a good bit of thunder but didn't bother to get up and watch it. I measured 1.34" of rain.

Temp 60F as of 9 AM but supposed to drop to the 40's this afternoon and a low of 30F tonight.

[Shalop]

Lots of -40s and -50s F in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan right now...


Meteociel - Températures observées en Etats-Unis / Canada en temps réel

[SoCal Midwest Noobie]

20F here in Metro Detroit. Snow is walling up at my door. Never had it do that in my years here yet. Freeze the door yes, but not wall it in lol. Good luck Pittsburgh, youre next.

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

We've had at least as many above normal months as we've had below normal during the winter these past few years.


What we have been seeing is large gyrations between extremes of cold and warmth these past few winters.


Here is a comparison of the Mean temperatures for the winters between 2011 and 2018, with the 1981-2010 normals for ORD. Pretty big year to year swings with January averaging a little bit above the 30 year normal, February down about a degree and December up nearly 4F these past 9 years when compared to the 1981-2010 normals! So January's positive departure basically cancels out February's negative departure and your left with December being +4F which means the winters are warmer when compared with the 1981-2010 means.




Winter Mean temps 2011-2018: 27.5F
Winter Mean temps 1981-2010: 26.4F

Yep, I pretty much was referring to the recurring extreme cold you guys get. Which can also be cancelled out by extreme warmth; in turn this does nothing to your averages.

Refer to BMI's post showing how averages have pretty much remained the same over the east while with each new 30 year average the west has seen much more warming.

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by BMI

I noticed that Minneapolis used to be a bit colder than Montreal but now is slightly
warmer. East getting ripped off again, not sure why. Moscow used to be colder
than Montreal too ....now Moscow is much warmer in january too, crazy.

The king of warming (every month, not just winter) is Phoenix, Arizona...

1941-1970 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 70.3F
1981-2010 Climate Normals for Phoenix indicates the average annual temperature of 75.1F
Almost 5 degrees warmer....mostly the lows ...Phoenix average lows are now more like Yuma.

Phoenix 1941-1970............Phoenix 1981-2910
64.8/37.6...........jan...........67.2/45.6
69.3/40.8...........feb...........70.7/48.7
74.5/44.8...........mar..........76.9/53.5
83.6/51.8...........apr...........85.2/60.2
92.9/59.6...........may.........94.8/69.4
101.5/67.7.........jun..........103.9/77.7
104.8/77.5.........aug..........106.1/83.5
102.2/76.0.........sep..........104.4/82.7
98.4/69.1...........oct...........99.8/76.9
87.6/56.8...........nov..........88.5/64.8
74.7/44.8...........dec..........75.5/52.7
66.4/38.5...........nov..........66.0/44.8

Dramatically warmer lows! For example...march low now warmer than april low was!

Las Vegas, Nevada ...same thing, average annual temp now 69.4F ...was 65.8F

Las Vegas 1941-1970..........Las Vegas 1981-2010
55.7/32.6...........jan............58.0/39.4
61.3/36.9...........feb............62.5/43.4
67.8/41.7...........mar...........70.3/49.4
77.5/50.0...........apr............78.3/56.1
87.5/59.0...........may...........88.9/65.8
97.2/67.4...........jun............98.7/74.6
103.9/75.3..........jul............104.2/80.9
101.5/73.3..........aug..........102.2/79.3
94.8/65.4............sep...........94.0/71.1
81.0/53.1............oct...........80.6/58.5
65.7/40.8...........nov...........66.3/46.5
56.7/33.7...........dec...........56.6/38.7

Again mainly dramatically warmer lows....average january low in Las Vegas was just barely
above freezing now almost 7 degrees warmer!

This strong warming trend is mostly an Arizona/southern Nevada thing,
farther east in New Mexico no such big warming, maybe a degree at most,
even a slight “cooling” of the average highs for Albuquerque,
comparing 1941-1970 data with 1981-2010 data ...Albuquerque shows only a very slight
increase....average annual temperature 56.8F to 57.2F ....nothing like farther west.

I think the warming in California is even more dramatic. Los Angeles used to get snow a couple times each decade, now they haven't seen a single flake since the 60s or 70s.


Here's how Vancouver's averages have changed in January. Lots of warming and the decline in snowfall is quite evident.

1941-1970 average temps: 5.2C/-0.4C (41.4F/31.3F)
1941-1970 average Jan snowfall: 26.4cm (10.4in)
1981-2010 average temps: 6.9/1.4C (44.4F/34.5F)
1981-2010 average Jan snowfall: 11.1cm (4.4in)

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain

The last below below average January in Edmonton was 2011. Since then, every single one has been above average--sometimes significantly so. This month is on track to be the same.

And that's compared to the 1981-2010 averages which themselves are significantly warmer than earlier. Mean temperatures for January this decade are a full 4.0°C warmer than the 1961-1990 means.

Yeah, January has seen insane warming over the past few years. Even our low 1981-2010 snowfall average has not been exceeded since 2011. Since 2012....we've only had 1cm total in January!

The last time we exceeded our old (1941-1970) snowfall average in January? 2002. This is stark contrast to locales on the East Coast who have seen their snowiest months on record recently and are on 5-6 year streaks of above average snowfall.

[ral31]

Down to 42F here at 2 PM with wind chill of 32F, winds gusts 32 mph!