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According to the abstract, the study suggests that "anomalous atmospheric circulation" is responsible for both phenomenon. I.e. there may be a higher-level root cause. Too bad the article is pay-walled; I'd like to read more.
According to the abstract, the study suggests that "anomalous atmospheric circulation" is responsible for both phenomenon. I.e. there may be a higher-level root cause. Too bad the article is pay-walled; I'd like to read more.
I mean the two phenomenon might not be independent as they at first appear if they are caused by a common atmospheric behavior, such as changes in circulation patterns.
Meh. It's an outlier data point. Measurement errors do occur, but there are statistical methods to account for such things. Cf. robust statistical methods.
A future with a frigid Europe and parts of North America?
Quote:
As the Greenland ice sheet melts, large volumes of fresh water enter the North Atlantic and freshen the very salty sea water, slowing the “pump,†Jorgen Peder Steffensen of the University of Copenhagen explains in the video, produced for Yale Climate Connections by independent videographer Peter Sinclair of Midland, Michigan.
“That would make it terribly cold in Denmark, where I come from,†Steffensen says. “In principle, there’s no reason why Earth could not get warmer but still northern Europe and North America could get cold. Still, that area is not large compared to the global area.â€
Melting ice from Greenland largely explains the freshening North Atlantic, Box agrees.
The Gulf Stream is not really necessary for northwest Europe to be mild. The simple fact that it is downwind (east) of the Atlantic Ocean is enough to make temperatures there mild. The only thing that would change that is if the Earth started spinning in the opposite direction or something. For comparison, see the Pacific coast of North America which has no Gulf Stream and is still very mild for its latitude, if not as mild as Europe.
The conclusions made in that quote make no sense. Humans have nothing to do with it, but humans have to do something about it. Huh??
They're assuming that human greenhouse gas emissions began with the Industrial Revolution. That's probably correct, but there are some (Bill Ruddiman, for example) who argue that the Agricultural Revolution was really the beginning of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Widespread forest clearance for agriculture released some CO2 (possibly a lot) starting about 8,000 years ago, and about 5,000 years ago wet rice cultivation in Asia began to release large amounts of methane, an even more potent GHG.
They're assuming that human greenhouse gas emissions began with the Industrial Revolution. That's probably correct, but there are some (Bill Ruddiman, for example) who argue that the Agricultural Revolution was really the beginning of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Widespread forest clearance for agriculture released some CO2 (possibly a lot) starting about 8,000 years ago, and about 5,000 years ago wet rice cultivation in Asia began to release large amounts of methane, an even more potent GHG.
Not only methane but also N2O which is many dozens of times more potent then Co2 and even methane and until now has been grossly underestimated in rice cultivation
The Gulf Stream is not really necessary for northwest Europe to be mild. The simple fact that it is downwind (east) of the Atlantic Ocean is enough to make temperatures there mild. The only thing that would change that is if the Earth started spinning in the opposite direction or something. For comparison, see the Pacific coast of North America which has no Gulf Stream and is still very mild for its latitude, if not as mild as Europe.
There is some competing theories on how sensitive Europe is to the Gulf Stream but then why did Europe plunge 6-10C during the Younger Dryas when there was an abrupt slow down of the Gulf Stream as a result of massive freshwater injection into the North Atlantic? It wasn't just a coincidence. All that warm water most certainly moderates Northern Europe when compared to eastern Canada. The current is weakening and has also shifted south westward.
Not sure about the Younger Dryas, but in modern times the western coastlines of North America and Europe seem fairly comparable in temperature, though Europe may be warmer by a few degrees Celsius. Compare Ucluelet, BC and Brest, France, both on the outer coast at 48 degrees latitude:
The temps don’t seem all that different, and Ucluelet definitely doesn’t have the Gulf Stream. I don’t doubt that Europe can become cooler if ocean circulation changes. I think it might become more like the west coast of North America. Probably drier in the summer, a few degrees cooler overall and with a greater risk of occasional deep freezes. Still nothing like eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. with their reliably cold winters and frequent snow.
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