Quote:
Originally Posted by 73-79 ford fan
An El Nino may be developing now into late summer so I would guess a warmer than average winter.  |
Check here for the Climate Prediction Center skinny:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.doc
The pros believe we will drift into a more El Nino type pattern. So far, however we've seen no sign of it. Sea surface temperatures off the Oregon, Washington and northern California coasts are still stubbornly hanging in about a quarter to a half degree below seasonal norms. If we do see an El Nino, it will arrive later in the season or in autumn and it should be a very weak one.
Asuming we actually get one (and I personally don't think it'll happen) a weak El Nino will mean a tendency to slightly warmer and dryer conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and upper Midwest.
We, in the Willamette Valley, have already had rainfall amounts that were at "normal" levels or even slightly under; a pattern not expected under the present La Nina pattern. What we did get was at least one (and in some areas, three) cold blast(s) that brought heavy snow or ice, at least by our wimpy standards. That
was expected, or at least considered, during a La Nina event. If we move into El Nino we face the possibility of winter drought and while I personally would enjoy the more frequent sunshine, a dry winter also means no snowpack and that can get kinda awkward come August.
Those of you living in the nation's heartland will not experience anywhere nearly what a resonable person would consider a "mild" winter but one that is not as barbaric as the past two or three. Your temperatures will probably approach "average" or even exceed it by a smidge, but there will be no serious warmth. Do not expect ten-fifteen days at a stretch of readings 10 to 15 degrees above average for your region. You, too, will also be dry.
Northeasterners....Also milder conditions but possibly not so dry. Still cold enough to provide some dandy Lake Effect snow dumps for those who enjoy that sort of thing.
Southerners can expect slightly cooler and wetter conditions than average. Since this El Nino, should it actually happen, will probably be a weak one you won't see a whole lot of cold or wet; you may not even notice the difference from standard winter climatology.
Texas westward to California. No winter drought this year! you won't get the mega-storms you saw in 1998 but you will notice the increased storminess. Since there is still a lot of territory still not yet rehabilitated from the rash of wildfires you suffered through recently there will be mudslides a-plenty to entertain you. Good news for those farther east. More rain than usual and since the storms that do gob-smack southern California won't be all that strong, by the time they trip and stumble over the Sierras, Tehachapis and San Gabriels, they will be weak enough to do no worse than gently drip-drip-drip.
This, of course is the unofficial FV prognostication that I pulled out of my.....er...ah....came up with based on past El Nino history. This is not set in stone but it will be interesting, given how far we are away from winter, to see how much of this does come to pass.
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