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What will be the biggest city and/or metro area five years from now ?? More than likely what it is now..Charleston with "maybe" Huntington or Parkersburg or maybe Morgantown as runner-ups. I doubt it will be Martinsburg unless they annex huge chunks of Berkeley County. Not recently but ten years ago Martinsburg didn't have the interest to do that and I doubt they have it now. Other than for bragging rights what would they gain by doing that ?? They will still be overshadowed by Hagerstown, Winchester, Frederick and Northern Virginia.
I could see Morgantown being the biggest, in 15-20 yrs...Absorbing Westover, Star City and Granville would help, and also the unincorporated areas like Cheat Lake and Brookhaven.....
You have to consider a number of factors here... age of the current residents. resources in the affected areas, economic trends, and attitudes of current population.
You also can't overlook the factor of attitudes of the current power bases in the affected areas.
I fully understand that President Gee paints a bright picture but that's part of what he is paid to do. President Gilbert at Marshall also paints a bright picture with plans to grow enrollment to between 18,000-20,000 over the next 5-10 years. When combined with all of the projects that Huntington is currently undergoing like the Riverfront, ACF redevelopment, Hal Greer redevelopment and West End improvement combined with continued improvement downtown, Huntington has a lot of potential to grow as well. This doesn't even include the two new large shopping centers planned just outside of Huntington. If all of these things happen, that's a lot of jobs that will be added to the area. But these are all just plans and no one can foresee the future and how well these plans will come to fruition.
There are many uncertain parameters playing into all of this, causing one to proceed with cautious optimism. First with regard to higher ed growth, budget cuts and staff reductions lead to a more limited capacity to handle students. To offset this, base tuition is often raised and this usually limits some growth because people have a more difficult time affording an education. When combined with the fact that many are paying for an education only to get a job in the service providing sector it's setting up some uncertainty. As tuition increases but salaries remain flat or with little growth to match inflation, that student loan bubble is looking a little more fragile. If it were to bust as predicted by many, the results would likely be disastrous. Also when combined with the uncertainty of the state budget itself, the cuts to higher ed could be even more than expected. Public-Private partnerships have helped to offset the cost of construction projects but then the revenue made on the project most often goes to the private partner, meaning that it's potential revenue lost for the university for a certain number of years. While the projects themselves are definitely a positive, the lost revenue is not.
Then with regards to local economies, you add to the equation all of the uncertainty around the world with regards to our own elections, the European Union instability, Russia etc and it's going to be an interesting next 5 years. Planned developments could be affected by bond ratings and an unstable economy as they were in 2008. This could cause some of these developments to either not happen or to miss expectations and ultimately fold. I hope our state can weather the current circumstances and pull through stronger. If all of these positive plans workout, things will look brighter for a few corners in our state and hopefully that will spread to others throughout. Only time will tell though.
What us the status of the ACF redevelopment project?
They are still assessing the environmental state of the property, planning for what residents would like to see and negotiating with the property owner or at least trying to. Rubberlite is progressing on their plans with the HMDA recently voting to acquire the old Ingram Barge property.
I think Morgantown is primed to take over the largest metro/urban area in WV. Proximity to Pittsburgh, bustling medical field, and a growing university all play a key factor in this growth. Southern WV still seems to be in decline and will likely be for the foreseable future.
No area in our state has the potential to overtake the actual largest "Metro" area in West Virginia, which is the DC/Baltimore mega Metro of nearly 10 million people of which Charles Town is a part.
Of the rest of the areas, since except for Charleston, which nobody can deny is totally within state boundaries, arbitrary county line criteria is utilized which is not only misleading, but often flat out inaccurate. For example, we have 380,000 people living within 33 miles of Morgantown, but a good number of those are illogically considered to be in the Pittsburgh Metro because they are located in Fayette County, PA which is only 6 miles from Morgantown. Southern Fayette definitely associates more with Morgantown than they do the 'Burgh, but it is a large county geographically and the northern portion of it draws the entire county into the 'Burgh orbit. I'm sure folks in Huntington and Charleston could debate where Putnam County actually belongs too.
So bottom line, Silk, except for Jefferson County, and perhaps Berkeley County, I would agree with you that eventually the Morgantown area will be largest, but I probably won't be alive to see it. Kanawha is losing quickly, and we have little hope of gaining nearby areas in PA in our statistical base. But, if you omit those nearby areas in our case, Kanawha has a lot to lose and we have a lot to gain before we would catch up to them. All those fringe areas near Kanawha will remain in their listed demographics because there are no large cities near Kanawha.
No area in our state has the potential to overtake the actual largest "Metro" area in West Virginia, which is the DC/Baltimore mega Metro of nearly 10 million people of which Charles Town is a part.
Of the rest of the areas, since except for Charleston, which nobody can deny is totally within state boundaries, arbitrary county line criteria is utilized which is not only misleading, but often flat out inaccurate. For example, we have 380,000 people living within 33 miles of Morgantown, but a good number of those are illogically considered to be in the Pittsburgh Metro because they are located in Fayette County, PA which is only 6 miles from Morgantown. Southern Fayette definitely associates more with Morgantown than they do the 'Burgh, but it is a large county geographically and the northern portion of it draws the entire county into the 'Burgh orbit. I'm sure folks in Huntington and Charleston could debate where Putnam County actually belongs too.
So bottom line, Silk, except for Jefferson County, and perhaps Berkeley County, I would agree with you that eventually the Morgantown area will be largest, but I probably won't be alive to see it. Kanawha is losing quickly, and we have little hope of gaining nearby areas in PA in our statistical base. But, if you omit those nearby areas in our case, Kanawha has a lot to lose and we have a lot to gain before we would catch up to them. All those fringe areas near Kanawha will remain in their listed demographics because there are no large cities near Kanawha.
Putnam County is split mostly. It is a generalization to say so, but everyone that lives in Putnam County works in Charleston and Shops in Ona. Obviously some don't work in Charleston and some do shop in Charleston, but generally it seems to be work in Charleston, shop in Ona.
The fortunes of Charleston rise and fall with the state. When the state is doing poorly or has been stagnant for the last 2 decades, Charleston mirrors that activity level. When WV gets an uptick in business activity Charleston does as well.
The fortunes of Morgantown are tied to WVU. So long as the university is growing students, Morgantown will grow. But, I have been reading that WVU has a ceiling and when they hit that, all of that expansion out there will come to a halt. Presently, WVU is hovering around the 29,000 mark on campus. How much capacity is there in the system? Listening to Gee talk, there is none room at all and any future growth is going to cost a lot more than previous expansions because all of the usable land is gone. Even the marginal stuff is disappearing.
Huntington is just as tied to Marshall but it has even less growth potential. Marshall has a small ceiling and Huntington has no other growth instigator.
The fortunes of Morgantown are tied to WVU. So long as the university is growing students, Morgantown will grow. But, I have been reading that WVU has a ceiling and when they hit that, all of that expansion out there will come to a halt. Presently, WVU is hovering around the 29,000 mark on campus. How much capacity is there in the system? Listening to Gee talk, there is none room at all and any future growth is going to cost a lot more than previous expansions because all of the usable land is gone. Even the marginal stuff is disappearing.
Obviously, WVU is the best known and most prominent feature of Morgantown, so it is logical to believe that everything revolves around The University, but the facts are otherwise. There is no question that the school has the largest impact, but there are plenty of other economic drivers here ... the healthcare systems, research, government agencies, Mylan Pharma (which employs 4,000 people here), coal is still a factor, and a growing retail segment. Mon County is also home to the home offices of Med Express and Gabriel's.
WVU is in the process of restructuring, and has the largest freshman class in its history this year. During recent years, a lot has gone into putting the infrastructure in place for larger enrollment and the system is now pretty well set for that to take place. The plan is to have 32,000 students on the Morgantown campuses, and the school believes they are on pace for that to happen within the next 3 years. Much of the growth will be in terms of graduate students.
But the county has been able to capitalize on proximity to Pittsburgh and private investment in order to spur development that is not connected to The University. New developments along I-68 and I-79 are expected to bring in thousands of new jobs, WVU Medicine is in the process of a major expansion which is adding 700 new jobs this year, and an additional 1,000 is expected when the new Children's Hospital is built in the near future. The area is expected to grow at between 1% and 2% per year for at least the next 20 years, but the truth is growth has been exceeding expectations. I have no idea why that is the case. You literally can't go anywhere here without seeing construction taking place. I would not be surprised to see Monongalia County have more than 150,000 people in 20 years. We're just fortunate to have the right ingredients in place where that can happen.
Obviously, WVU is the best known and most prominent feature of Morgantown, so it is logical to believe that everything revolves around The University, but the facts are otherwise. There is no question that the school has the largest impact, but there are plenty of other economic drivers here ... the healthcare systems, research, government agencies, Mylan Pharma (which employs 4,000 people here), coal is still a factor, and a growing retail segment. Mon County is also home to the home offices of Med Express and Gabriel's.
WVU is in the process of restructuring, and has the largest freshman class in its history this year. During recent years, a lot has gone into putting the infrastructure in place for larger enrollment and the system is now pretty well set for that to take place. The plan is to have 32,000 students on the Morgantown campuses, and the school believes they are on pace for that to happen within the next 3 years. Much of the growth will be in terms of graduate students.
But the county has been able to capitalize on proximity to Pittsburgh and private investment in order to spur development that is not connected to The University. New developments along I-68 and I-79 are expected to bring in thousands of new jobs, WVU Medicine is in the process of a major expansion which is adding 700 new jobs this year, and an additional 1,000 is expected when the new Children's Hospital is built in the near future. The area is expected to grow at between 1% and 2% per year for at least the next 20 years, but the truth is growth has been exceeding expectations. I have no idea why that is the case. You literally can't go anywhere here without seeing construction taking place. I would not be surprised to see Monongalia County have more than 150,000 people in 20 years. We're just fortunate to have the right ingredients in place where that can happen.
Yes and no. All of those organizations you mentioned are there because of WVU. If WVU had never been located in Morgantown, none of those business would be there, so yes, it all revolves around the fortunes of WVU. Now, that they have begun to mature as individual industry, the growth of WVU has a little less effect on them but if there is anything more than a hiccup at WVU, the other industries will catch a cold.
I am very glad that WVU brings life to Morgantown but I also realize that WVU can only grow so big and they seem to be near - a few thousand students - to their projected maximum capacity. This implies Morgantown is reaching their nadir. Assuming that maximum, currently Morgantown has about 31,000 people and Monongalia County has about 96,000, the growth potential left is about another 15% for each. That would bring them in at Morgantown ~35,000 and Monongalia County at 110,000. Both are well below the mark of the state's largest.
Yes and no. All of those organizations you mentioned are there because of WVU. If WVU had never been located in Morgantown, none of those business would be there, so yes, it all revolves around the fortunes of WVU. Now, that they have begun to mature as individual industry, the growth of WVU has a little less effect on them but if there is anything more than a hiccup at WVU, the other industries will catch a cold.
I am very glad that WVU brings life to Morgantown but I also realize that WVU can only grow so big and they seem to be near - a few thousand students - to their projected maximum capacity. This implies Morgantown is reaching their nadir. Assuming that maximum, currently Morgantown has about 31,000 people and Monongalia County has about 96,000, the growth potential left is about another 15% for each. That would bring them in at Morgantown ~35,000 and Monongalia County at 110,000. Both are well below the mark of the state's largest.
Wow. Where are you getting your crystal ball? I wish I had one.
WVU is in growth mode. It won't be catching any colds. There is great, sustaining strength in the alumni and supporter base of the school. Recently, $1 billion has been raised totally from private sources to support activities there.
The University will peak locally at 32,000 students by design, that's true, but that will have little effect on the health care components, which are seemingly growing exponentially, and look to continue to grow due to the increased number of old foggies in our region and our state. Mylan employs 2/3 as many folks as The U. and they are in expansion mode, and the area is gaining steam as a destination city in other matters too. We have a number of other good sized organizations with a presence here, and while the fact that the school is here probably played a role in them locating here, the fact remains that they are here, and their growth is not related to the number of students at the school, especially undergraduate students.
Most serious research is done by PhD types, and there are many of those located here who have zero connection to the school, such as our next door neighbor, who is a scientist for Protea (she graduated from Penn State and has a PhD from Vanderbilt). A lot of these organizations have no connection to undergraduate or even masters level students at WVU. There is NIOSH, NETL, and research at NASA in nearby Fairmont that attracts people here, as well as that at FBI in Clarksburg with which WVU has a major presence in research endeavors. The number of researchers is not predicated by the number of undergrad students... not even related to it, really.
Also, don't forget the significant US Dept. or Ag presence here as well as the 2 federal prison complexes in our area which employ thousands. They have no connection to the school either. Researchers have predicted a healthy growth rate for our area for at least the next 20 years, and I sure don't see anything that would indicate that isn't accurate. We expect more businesses to locate here, in part due to the school, and also in part due to other factors.
By the way, current Census estimates have Mon County's population at 103,000, not 96,000. 96 was the official census count for 2000. If you've spent any time here, you know a lot more people have moved here in the past 6 years. Estimates are that Morgantown will grow between 1 and 2% per year for at least the next 20 years. If we split the difference and say 1.5%, that would add 30% to our current population in that period of time. You'd be looking at something over 130,000 in 20 years, in an area with about 1/3 the geographic footprint of Kanawha, and an area that already has 380,000 people living within 33 miles of Morgantown's city center. There is a reason our area is attracting significant private investment, and it doesn't all have to do with WVU. It sure doesn't have anything to do with our state government either, which seems intent on trying, in vein, to throw up roadblocks.
Last edited by CTMountaineer; 11-07-2016 at 03:23 PM..
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