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But the long-term trends are unmistakable: now that Corporate America has made the discovery that they can jettison 8 million workers and still make beau coup profits, there is no turning back with the devaluation of the human workforce, in spite of whatever "recovery" the economy may be experiencing. Not only are more jobs done by fewer people, automation (robots) and A.I. (computers that can think like humans) will continue to displace more and more workers, and this process will only accelerate over time. The day will soon come when cashiers will no longer be needed at the stores - just push your cart through the scanner, pay on the machine and of course, do the bagging yourself. "Robot" McDonald's aren't that far off either, and once costs fall low enough, you can bet they'll convert all the fast-food places into giant vending machines. And just wait until they come out with virtual accountants, A.I.'s that can do the work of a 100 engineers, etc, etc - oops, there goes all those "STEM" jobs.
So when all this "human workforce reduction" takes place, what will become of all the unemployed? Currently, despite the large numbers of people out of work, they're still in the minority, and can metaphorically be swept under the rug. But what happens when the true unemployment / underemployment rate approaches the critical 50% mark? Well, we might get an idea from Spain, considering their UE rate is nearly 25% and rising, and France has already elected a Socialist president that's dead-set against austerity. I have a feeling that the United States would be undergoing some major political changes, and perhaps sooner rather than later.
Assuming we're able to hold on to some sense of democracy as opposed to a dystopian corp-state, I'd like to explore what kind of possibilities exist for re-engineering our economy so that all those people without regular jobs can maintain a comfortable standard of living. If it was left up to me, I'd adopt Huey Long's platform of an universal, minimum income, generated from harvesting 1/3 of the country's GDP each year. Back then, that would have meant taxing the tycoons into oblivion; in the near-future of the automated workforce, that would mean that the machines would be "taxed" and the money divvied out among the population, whether they had a job or not.
But I know many folks on here would consider that "communist" or "socialist", so I'd like to hear some alternative ideas of how to remake the economy so that it can still function when the jobs go away. Or perhaps I'm feeling a bit doomerish, and that it'll be back to 1999 before we know it...
1) End the outsourcing of jobs: I'm sick of the silly nonsense about American's needing to compete with slave wages in 3rd world nations. Unless we're all going to have 3rd world prices for things ($1,000 cars, etc.), this simply won't work. It is always cheaper to hire slaves than to pay people a living wage. So, either we all become slaves (which is what the elite want), or this idiocy ends and we bring the jobs back.
2) Stop rewarding failure: This ranges from idiot government ideas that don't work but must be continued to useless executives who run companies into the ground, collect golden parachutes, and are then immediately hired by a new company to run it into the ground. Look at the leaders at HP as an example, or that nitwit Nardelli, who ran Home Depot into the dirt and was then hired at Chrysler. Seriously, if an executive fails, kick them out. Don't give them a huge pile of money or a new job - get rid of them. That's how they treat the working class, so it seems fair, and since these clowns can destroy entire companies in under a year, all effort should be made to stop their bad behavior if any of us want to have jobs in the future.
3) Stop blaming the victim: Seriously, this nation is in love with this idea. If somebody is sick, it's their fault. If somebody is unemployed, it's their fault. If a natural disaster strikes, is the fault of the people affected. Enough with this! I don't know if this is just a surge in stupidity, a planned reaction generated by the elite who love to divide us, or the natural reflection of the looney "if you think good things, they will happen camp." Because clearly, if bad things happen, it's because the victim wasn't thinking "good thoughts." Right...
Stop trying to punish the old, the sick, and the poor for their condition, and use a little common sense and empathy. It amazes me that the richest nation on the planet is also one of the most cold-hearted among the developed world. Geez... based upon the wealth hoarded by the luckier people, it's clear that there's enough to go around here, if people were willing to treat others like human beings and give them a chance.
5) Without customers, you don't have profits: This ties into the original post, since a huge unemployment rate would mean no customers, and reality is already starting to set in as China is starting to suffer a major slowdown. Yeah, putting your customers out of work has consequences - nobody can buy your crap if they don't have any money! Geez... Apparently, that was never covered in business school... I guess that class was replaced with "how to swindle your investors 101." By the time unemployment hits 50%, the system will already be well into collapse since even the current real unemployment rate of 20% is killing any "recovery" that might have happened. Of course, the "recovery" was a job-loss recovery, which means the only thing that recovered is the executive bonuses. That won't work if we intend to have a functional society in the future.
I'm sure people thought like this when agriculture was mechanized. Nobody knows what the future holds I heard stuff like this when I was a kid but people figured out things to do. My IT job didn't exist back then.
Not worried about it... my line of work (aerospace) is pretty solid. I recently read that Boeing has 30 years worth of airplane orders to fill. As long as those airplanes are continuing to be built out of metal such as titanium and aluminum I'll have my CNC metalworking job.
I think that the USA will probably break apart before it ever becomes something like in Judge Dredd. I just don't see how the USA has the power to hold itself together. Sure, corporate America makes a ton of money, but what happens when people stop buying?????
Not worried about it... my line of work (aerospace) is pretty solid. I recently read that Boeing has 30 years worth of airplane orders to fill. As long as those airplanes are continuing to be built out of metal such as titanium and aluminum I'll have my CNC metalworking job.
Airline travel isn't going anywhere.
Unless the terrorists will find an effective way to blow-up plains. You never know what the future holds.
It won't all become automated... Customers prefer human interaction. I was reading in Advertising Age that Macy's and many grocery stores are getting rid of "self checkouts" as they are slower and provide a worse customer experience over regular cashiers.
If you are really worried about it, learn a few programming languages and get a job as an entry-level desktop analyst.
Unless the terrorists will find an effective way to blow-up plains. You never know what the future holds.
People will continue to fly... The TSA will continue to search 4 year olds in wheelchairs and do full body scans on hot blondes. Terrorists will always be out there.
I think that the USA will probably break apart before it ever becomes something like in Judge Dredd. I just don't see how the USA has the power to hold itself together. Sure, corporate America makes a ton of money, but what happens when people stop buying?????
Exactly. Or how about when the government stops spending far more than it takes in (which it must do at some point)? Or when interest rates rise to more "normal" levels? And what do companies do when the economy goes south? They lay off yet more people.
Of course, we could all just have the power of "positive thinking" and wish our way back to 1999 when everyone had a job, everything was golden, and there wasn't a care in the world.
This is what people do not get it is already happening. Between 2000 to 2007 5 million jobs were automated out of manufacturing alone. That is one sector add up all the other sectors between 2000 to 2012. You most likely are looking at 10 million jobs at least. Add in the 1 to 3 million jobs sent overseas every year you see the problem. Even if we add a million jobs a year it does not help. Because were not even replacing the jobs we lost. We need 1.8 million just to keep up with population growth. We are not even doing that have not in years. Once you add in jobs lost to outsourcing and automation. You would be looking at 3 million jobs a year at least. The growth of part time temp interns freelance. This is the future not good paying jobs. In fact 7 out of 10 jobs will be in low wage service jobs. BLS reports bare this out even the next ten years look bad.
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Well, we might get an idea from Spain, considering their UE rate is nearly 25% and rising, and France has already elected a Socialist president that's dead-set against austerity. I have a feeling that the United States would be undergoing some major political changes, and perhaps sooner rather than later. 
