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I don't think robots are going to be as big as people think. Even Honda and Toyota are starting to scale back on their robot use so they can create more jobs for us mere mortals.
Accounting.
Yeah it could be automated or you can hire the person to do the job overseas BUT you'd be much better off hiring a local, one that knows the economic laws of your country/state/city.
I wouldn't trust an accountant in India doing the books for a Fortune 500 company. I would personally feel much better if a Fortune 500 company based in California, has someone IN California to do their books for them. As for automation, there's limits to what can be automated.
I disagree with almost everyone. Automating almost everything is much closer than people think. Computerized lawyers and judges will especially be much better at their jobs than human ones. They will remain calm and reasonable, and will be equally fair in all jurisdictions, because they won't be led astray by human foibles. If a judge finds people of a certain race or religion disgusting, he will obviously be well replaced by a computer. Or if he feels his ego threatened by certain lawyers. And lawyers will be even more improved by being replaced. Present lawyers are too busy and too greedy, to give their cases the attention needed. They accept too many cases, because of greed for retainers, and don't really care that they don't have time for all those cases, because they get the same fees whether they win or lose. But some of them take cases on contingency that they expect to win and get much higher fees. A computerized lawyer would view all cases dispassionately, and tell the truth about the prospects of each, and charge a much smaller fee than a human lawyer.
Eventually it will get to the point where you can sue on the road. That guy cut me off. The evidence is in the video. What say you, cut-off driver? I didn't mean to. Court awards $1.50, next case. And it's all in the same mile of road. And why not? Computerized professionals will be so cheap that it would make perfect sense to sue for $1.50. And the $1.50 automatically gets transferred between bank accounts. Think how much road rage could be averted by letting drivers sue to let off steam.
Robotic surgeons won't drink too much and make mistakes that leave people crippled. Robotic bankers are here already. You can do almost all banking online, and mostly automated. Robotic politicians won't be needed, because it will become feasible to upgrade our political system to online democracy, where everyone gets an equal vote, with safeguards, such as that you have to vote for the same thing twice, in two consecutive weeks, for it to pass. Robot soldiers will die in battle, which is tragic, because people won't grieve them as much, except those who pay for them. With some luck, robots may be our slaves for 1000 years before they gain their freedom. But people should treat them with respect. If they're made of metal, keep in mind that metal dents easily, so don't kick them or stomp on them.
Clearly not much understanding of either the limits of computing or what most jobs entail...
Quote:
Originally Posted by eok
I disagree with almost everyone. Automating almost everything is much closer than people think. Computerized lawyers and judges will especially be much better at their jobs than human ones. They will remain calm and reasonable, and will be equally fair in all jurisdictions, because they won't be led astray by human foibles. If a judge finds people of a certain race or religion disgusting, he will obviously be well replaced by a computer. Or if he feels his ego threatened by certain lawyers. And lawyers will be even more improved by being replaced. Present lawyers are too busy and too greedy, to give their cases the attention needed. They accept too many cases, because of greed for retainers, and don't really care that they don't have time for all those cases, because they get the same fees whether they win or lose. But some of them take cases on contingency that they expect to win and get much higher fees. A computerized lawyer would view all cases dispassionately, and tell the truth about the prospects of each, and charge a much smaller fee than a human lawyer.
Eventually it will get to the point where you can sue on the road. That guy cut me off. The evidence is in the video. What say you, cut-off driver? I didn't mean to. Court awards $1.50, next case. And it's all in the same mile of road. And why not? Computerized professionals will be so cheap that it would make perfect sense to sue for $1.50. And the $1.50 automatically gets transferred between bank accounts. Think how much road rage could be averted by letting drivers sue to let off steam.
Robotic surgeons won't drink too much and make mistakes that leave people crippled. Robotic bankers are here already. You can do almost all banking online, and mostly automated. Robotic politicians won't be needed, because it will become feasible to upgrade our political system to online democracy, where everyone gets an equal vote, with safeguards, such as that you have to vote for the same thing twice, in two consecutive weeks, for it to pass. Robot soldiers will die in battle, which is tragic, because people won't grieve them as much, except those who pay for them. With some luck, robots may be our slaves for 1000 years before they gain their freedom. But people should treat them with respect. If they're made of metal, keep in mind that metal dents easily, so don't kick them or stomp on them.
In "make beleive land" maybe computers can decide INTENT but as somebody that spends inordinate amounts of time dealing with the limits of how error prone most computer programs are things are bad enough when there is just jumbled "facts" as input. A little slop in the spaces between values and in short order the system that ought be making you billions is off line and costing you millions.
Judges rarely have anything come before them that is clearly one sided, whether it the most heinous crime that has extenuating circumstances or the most trivial contract dispute the HUMANS on either side of the dispute won't be satisfied with a "reboot". If the judge does not find a way to satisfy (or frustrate...) both sides there will be appeals...
Surgeons rarely screw up becuase they are drunk. More often the situation they face whether is it "routine" surgery or some emergancy is more about the million variations in how each living person is slighty different than another. The medical textbooks have illustrations that try to focus on the similarity not differnces while real experience teachers doctors that they have to be able scale down techniques for some ill infant and the next case is some huge basketball player or something. Computers barely put up with the a "finger print" from your own hand being at a slight angle let alone being able scale up / down for the range of humanity that needs medical attention.
Finally if you think ATMs are bankers then you probably think the kids selling strawberries at a roadside stand are also "commodity dealers". The reality is that all the subtly and experince that surgeon uses to plan out a bladder repair or tumor removal is exactly the same kind of thing that BANKERS use to anticipate the appropriate interst rates and demand for borrowing when they price loans or bonds. If they get things wrong the losses they rack up can cause their firms to collapse -- the ashes of failed banks that metaphorically burned to the ground when the real estste bubble imploded still harm the ability of the economy to get moving.
In short computers are tools. Just like a carpenter with a power saw can build faster than one dragging a bendy metal blade backs hand forth so too are judges, doctors and bankers capable of doing more with the assistance of good computing resources. That said a reckless carpenter with a power saw is likely to end up with bloody stumps where his fingers used to be and so can a society that lets reckless technology alter too many vital roles end up functionless and unable to grasp subtly..
Robots and AI are still far away from being able to preform the kind of intricate hand work that a human can do. I would say the hands on trades are still a good investment. At my local bank there is an ATM yet the drive thru and inside office are always lined with people. There are a lot of things that you still can't do at an ATM. Just because something can be automated does not necessarily mean it will be.
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Clearly not much understanding of either the limits of computing or what most jobs entail...
