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U6 is around 7.6% and add in the discouraged, we're talking 8.1% at a minimum.
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Most people out of the labor force are older, given boomers are retiring, we see that more today than in the past.
We're not seeing boomers retiring. 80% have less than 100K in their retirement accounts. The only ones retiring are the independently wealthy and those with nice pensions.
Take a look at the reasons for why people are "out of the labor force" -
5,518,000 wanted a job in 2017 but could not get it. Of those, 1m are in school, have family responsibilities or disability that prevent them from getting the job. Another 600K are because of "other reasons" (such as child care, double counting family responsibilities - so I'm not going to double count this in my analysis like they did)
So we're talking about what, 4 million addition people not counted as "not in the labor force" but they want a job but can't get it.
The biggest part of "not in the workforce" is "do not want a job now" - this includes people who were not asked if they want a job now, so it is automatically assumed. It also counts the persons who are temporarily unemployed (i.e. factory closed 3 weeks for inspections but they're not getting paid for this) - and includes students who are looking for a summer job weeks before the end of the school year.
How many more can I add to the 4m? Not sure.
But let's take that 4 million and add it to the 8.1% of labor force U6 unemployed.
Labor force is 160,320,000, times 8.1% = 12,985,920 of people out of work per U6. Add the 4m and we get 16,985,920, divide that by the labor force of 160,320,000 and you get
U6 is around 7.6% and add in the discouraged, we're talking 8.1% at a minimum.
We're not seeing boomers retiring. 80% have less than 100K in their retirement accounts. The only ones retiring are the independently wealthy and those with nice pensions.
Take a look at the reasons for why people are "out of the labor force" -
5,518,000 wanted a job in 2017 but could not get it. Of those, 1m are in school, have family responsibilities or disability that prevent them from getting the job. Another 600K are because of "other reasons" (such as child care, double counting family responsibilities - so I'm not going to double count this in my analysis like they did)
So we're talking about what, 4 million addition people not counted as "not in the labor force" but they want a job but can't get it.
The biggest part of "not in the workforce" is "do not want a job now" - this includes people who were not asked if they want a job now, so it is automatically assumed. It also counts the persons who are temporarily unemployed (i.e. factory closed 3 weeks for inspections but they're not getting paid for this) - and includes students who are looking for a summer job weeks before the end of the school year.
How many more can I add to the 4m? Not sure.
But let's take that 4 million and add it to the 8.1% of labor force U6 unemployed.
Labor force is 160,320,000, times 8.1% = 12,985,920 of people out of work per U6. Add the 4m and we get 16,985,920, divide that by the labor force of 160,320,000 and you get
10.6% of REAL unemployment at a minimum.
Only 476,000 workers were discouraged workers in 2017. That is a point of fact, unless you're using a definition other than the formal definition of a discouraged worker.
We're seeing around 10,000 boomers retiring every day. Boomers are retiring.
Why are you adding those 4 million people to U6? First of all, 1.5 million of those 4 million are already included in U5 and U6 (marginally attached workers). So you're including the over 3 million people who say they want a job, but haven't even looked for a job in over a year. If a person hasn't even looked for a job in over a year, they don't want or need a job.
But OK, let's use U6. U6 is still lower than it has been in nearly two decades. That doesn't change the point that unemployment is at a long term low, and it doesn't change the fact that discouraged workers are a low percent of the makeup of labor force participation rates.
Yes, U6 is higher than U3 (as it always has been, by definition), but U6 today is at a near 20 year low compared to U6 in the past.
If we focus on people who want a job now but are discouraged (BLS series ID LNU05026645 in https://data.bls.gov), defined as
Labor force status: Not in labor force
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Job desires/not in labor force: Want a job now
Reasons not in labor force: Discouragement over job prospects (Persons who believe no job is available.)
We see an average 10-15% decrease in this metric per year since 2010, so since the recession less people are discouraged over job prospects every year. That's a really good sign for employment.
The over 55 segment is bigger than the 16 to 24 and 25 to 54 segments COMBINED.
Of course they won't do this - But need to get age 55-65. Still a good 10+ years before medicaid, SS eligible in many cases isn't it? I don't care if a 70 year old "doesn't want to work". That's assuming they even CAN work!!!
I find it hard to believe that they only count about 20 million in 2017 aged 25-54 that "don't want a job". That number is likely closer to 30 million bare minimum.
The last I checked the "NEET" population was 10-15% of the total U.S. population. So that's more like 30 million-35 million.
NEET = Neither in employment, education or training.
When the 20% who CAN retire do, that "daily number" that is hyped into the stratosphere will drop to zero very quickly.
50% have less than 100k in retirement, not 80%, and we are seeing large numbers (in the 10,000/day ballpark) retiring. You're missing a large part of boomers: those who adequately saved for retirement. There is an issue with low savings among boomers, but combinations of social security and the savings they do have is allowing large numbers of boomers to retire.
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Originally Posted by MechaMan
Correct, because from 08-09 real unemployment was commonly reported even in the regular news as
"1 in 5" if anyone remembers.
That is using U6 instead of U3. U6 is also at a near 20 year low right now. All indicators show the economy today to be better than it has been in decades. U6 spiked around 17% at the lowest point in the recession, it never stayed there.
Last edited by Lekrii; 06-21-2018 at 05:11 PM..
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