[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

So I have finally finished the math of where the possible missing growth is coming from withing the metros of Alabama. My formula was using the difference of housing inventory from January 2010 to August 1, 2020 (as when a house is bought its gonna be occupied) and multiplied the difference by the "person per household" of the metro to find increased population through the changing in inventory and then I add it with the total number of houses built during that time and multiply again the "person per household" average



Birmingham Metro:
House inventory difference from Jan 2010 to Aug 2020
10009-4371= 5638 (houses filled in that time)
the person's per household (PPH) is 2.6 for the metro
5638 X 2.6 = 14659 Persons added
Houses Built in that time: 24654
24654 X 2.6= 64100
Total person added: 14659+64100= 78759
Estimated growth between 2010-2020= 29892
The difference: 78759-29892= 48862 people missed from estimates


^ this is how the general format of the rest of the predictions will be, I'm not gonna be this meticulous for the rest because that takes to much time:


Mobile Bay:
Inventory difference: 7914-2404= 5510 houses filled
PPH is 2.6: 5510 x 2.6= 14326 new persons
Houses built: 22110
22110 x 2.6 = 57486 new persons
total new persons: 14326 + 57486 = 71812
Estimated population gains: 34522
71812-34522= 37290 persons missed from estimates


Huntsville Metro:
Inventory change: 2795-963=1832 houses filled
PPH: 2.4: 1832 x 2.4= 4397
Houses built: 26291
26291 x 2.4 = 63098
63098 + 4397 = 67495 new persons in metro
Estimated growth: 53996
53996 - 67495 = 13499 persons missed from estimates


Montgomery Metro:
Inventory change: 3082-1172= 1910 houses filled
PPH=2.5
1910 x 2.5 = 4775
Houses built: 6398
6398 x 2.5 = 15995
4775 + 15995 = 20770 new persons in metro
Estimated population growth: -1392
20770 - -1392 = 22162 person missed from estimates


Dothan:
Inventory Change: 1108-438 = 670 houses filled
PPH: 2.55
670 x 2.55 = 1709
Houses built: 2211
2211 x 2.55 = 5638
5638 + 1709 = 7347 new persons in metro
Estimated population growth: 4035
7346 - 4035 = 3312 persons missed from estimates


Auburn:
Inventory change: 1306-592 = 712 houses filled
PPH: 2.5
712 x 2.5= 1785
Houses built: 9068
9068 x 2.5 = 22670
22670 + 1785 = 24455 new persons in metro
Estimated population growth: 24768
24455 - 24768 = -313 persons missed from estimates


Tuscaloosa metro
Inventory change: 1736 - 655 = 1081
PPH: 2.5
1081 x 2.5 = 2702
houses build: 4788
4788 x 2.5 = 11970
11970 + 2702 = 14672 new persons in metro
Estimated Population Growth: 12827
14672 - 12827 = 1845 persons missing from estimates


Total persons missing from estimates: 126,662

We should know in 2 or 3 months how accurate your assumptions and calculations are.

Presumably the Census Bureau uses the same estimation methodology for the entire country so errors should be consistent from one place to another. But we know they're not, in reality. They use such things as births and deaths, which should be pretty well known, and also inbound and outbound migration, which could be less accurate, and likely a hoarde of other parameters we don't know about.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

We should know in 2 or 3 months how accurate your assumptions and calculations are.

Presumably the Census Bureau uses the same estimation methodology for the entire country so errors should be consistent from one place to another. But we know they're not, in reality. They use such things as births and deaths, which should be pretty well known, and also inbound and outbound migration, which could be less accurate, and likely a hoarde of other parameters we don't know about.

I heard it was gonna be released next month (county results) so we could easily determine the populations of metros with that information.

[Surge0001]

Looking at the final calculations, it seems that my original assumption that Birmingham metro and Bay area were very much under-counted for this census and if my predictions are even close to correct, the two areas will make up 70% of that under counting. I actually did not expect the two areas to be under counted so much. I was expecting for Birmingham metro to possibly overtake Huntsville metro in terms of possible population growth, but I wasn't expecting Mobile Bay to possibly beat out Huntsville.

Really the only reason that Mobile Bay and Birmingham areas got a leg up on Huntsville metro was that both areas had 3-4 times the housing stock from the beginning of the 2010. Huntsville has almost solely relied on new housing to maintain growth while Mobile and Birmingham had a surplus to housing stocks to creep their way above Huntsville. Now they seem to be on the same playing field since all 3 areas have/are essentially ran out of housing stock
Montgomery was a shocker to me, I was expecting half that growth. Of course no where near the other 3 major cities


I am also confident in my math for this, these metros make up like 80% of the population and is where you are seeing growth happen. The number of people missing from the estimates was a little over 125k and the total for my estimates was 126k (basically on par). There will likely be some variation in the real census, but generally I think this will be the general ratio we are going to see for the census

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

I heard it was gonna be released next month (county results) so we could easily determine the populations of metros with that information.

Hopefully that's correct. In reality, there's really no reason raw results should take so long. They should be able to release city/county (certainly county) numbers within a couple months of the end of census data taking, and do the in-depth demographics analysis on a longer term.

[TimCity2000]

the county population release will go a long way. for example, if it turns out that jefferson county has been as stagnant as the estimates suggest, you can assume the city of birmingham has not grown much (or at all) as well.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

the county population release will go a long way. for example, if it turns out that jefferson county has been as stagnant as the estimates suggest, you can assume the city of birmingham has not grown much (or at all) as well.

True. Probably not many people moving from the suburban towns into B'ham proper. Maybe a few with the renovated apartments downtown. From now to 2030 could be a different story though.

[TimCity2000]

my guess is that there are maybe 10 neighborhoods that have had any measurable growth (out of 99)... the hope is that the other neighborhoods have at the very least stabilized instead of continuing to lose people. honestly, even the "flatlining" that the estimates from 2010-2020 suggest is better than the previous hemorrhaging of residents that we saw from the '60s to 2010. now we need to start moving back in the positive direction.

i do still think huntsville will become the most populous city in the state in short order, regardless. i don't think it will be in this census though.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

my guess is that there are maybe 10 neighborhoods that have had any measurable growth (out of 99)... the hope is that the other neighborhoods have at the very least stabilized instead of continuing to lose people. honestly, even the "flatlining" that the estimates from 2010-2020 suggest is better than the previous hemorrhaging of residents that we saw from the '60s to 2010. now we need to start moving back in the positive direction.

i do still think huntsville will become the most populous city in the state in short order, regardless. i don't think it will be in this census though.

Probably, although I will point out Mobile has become ambitious on annexation, just a single city council member is in the way of that ambition. Mobile could easily gain 30,000 annexing a few square miles in West Mobile


Frankly I hope to see this competition unfold among the 3 cities. Mobile and Birmingham, the old dogs turning the corner and the fast growing underdog, Huntsville, competing for the top spot over the next census would be very interesting to witness

[mcalumni01]

Census numbers are never 100% correct, even when "official" numbers are presented. Not everyone is being counted. Only 60% of Bham population was "official" in 2010. So 40% of the city wasn't counted. Add that percentage in and what would the number had been in 2010. So the true population was way higher than that. Census counts are just a "let see what we have every 10 years", but there is no way it count every person in this country.

[RocketDawg]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

my guess is that there are maybe 10 neighborhoods that have had any measurable growth (out of 99)... the hope is that the other neighborhoods have at the very least stabilized instead of continuing to lose people. honestly, even the "flatlining" that the estimates from 2010-2020 suggest is better than the previous hemorrhaging of residents that we saw from the '60s to 2010. now we need to start moving back in the positive direction.

i do still think huntsville will become the most populous city in the state in short order, regardless. i don't think it will be in this census though.

I don't it will either, but probably will in the July 2022 estimate. Possibly July 2021 but I don't think it will. But there's an awful lot of "stuff" being built around here.