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If you would replace Alaska in your mind with present day Kansas you could say almost the exact same thing about the future. It isn't all cutting what you so cavalierly say are the liberal programs that causes the harm to the economy. It is when the collection of taxes is so reduced that the amount available to pay for what even a staunch conservative like your self would be forced to admit were necessary government service that were being cut. Kansas is even considering which schools to close because now that the revenue is being reduced by tax cuts there isn't enough to pay for everything. And which ones will get closed first? Why it will have to be in the liberal enclaves because they got the extra benefits. You can bet the conservative politicians will find enough money to avoid cutting their cushy jobs however. When did you ever hear about a politician cutting his or her salary in the face of budget cuts? Why they are even talking about getting rid of wind powered generation there.
When Democrats mostly, (but Republicans do it too), make cuts, it's never about them. Schools, police and fire always are at the forefront of their ax. They always go for the cuts that hurt the average person so they can claim it wasn't their fault, which is a load of crap! Never about pork project that will get them votes. And yet the average American isn't smart enough to know they have been hoodwinked.
The Sequester was suppose to kill jobs for millions, but yet we now find only one federal employee was laid off. All the employees that were laid off got no pay cuts except when they first went home, they received full back pay so it amounted to a paid vacation. Basically this one was Obama fault, not Bush.
Obama cut air shows by the military at events... It isn't about the air show, it's the people getting to see what we paid for and training that makes these pilots the best in the world.
Here is a bit of humor with Obama in his own words trying to scare everyone about a program he came up with thinking the Republicans would blink, they didn't..
As for our Alaskan Politicians (Both parties), they have wasted hundreds of millions on pork projects that didn't need to be, but it bought votes. When the oil pipeline is history, we will be screwed as a State , no matter where you live at in the State.
...Once the oil stops, it will be a mass exodus out of the state. In 1985, it was just a glitch and was a very good look at what we can expect when "S**t hits the Fan" you might say...
That's about the time when I will be interested in moving TO the state.
I think only those who lived through the mid 80's boom and subsequent bust really can conceive of the pogrom that lies ahead for Alaska once the pipeline shuts down. That line feeds the state of Alaska through the funding of state government and the employment of oil industry workers and there is no possible way to replace it. Fishing, largely controlled by Seattle, where the money goes, isn't going to do it. Timber won't do it, the few mines in Alaska won't do it. Reality shows won't do it. There was mining, timber, and fishing back in the 80's and it did nothing to ease the crash.
Let me tell you a story, kids. At the bottom of the crash, I was driving back from a caribou hunt along the Denali highway, and the string of vehicles loaded up with the worldly goods grinding up the Glenn towards the Tok cutoff was rather epic. It was a solid string of cars, trucks, Uhauls, towing trailers, roof racks and pods loaded, trying to escape before winter set in and made a move with a family impractical.
Houses weren't at 40% of the peak, they were in some cases 10% or less. There is a neighborhood of zero lot lines in the Lake Otis/Dowling area, those sold for $125K in the peak and went on the block for $10K. It was a great time to go to moving sales, garage sales, one of our friends bought the entire contents of an apartment from the owners who were getting on the next plane for $100. I bought a car from the airport auction for $50, one of many vehicles abandoned at the airport by their owners who got on a plane and left, never to return.
So what to expect? There will be one last gasp as the pipeline is dissassembled, it will be the second largest project in AK, right behind the building of said pipeline. The problem for the state is that without a state income tax, the money from that won't cross the coffers of the state. The workers can literally live anywhere and travel to the camps that will be used to house them, so the local economy won't see much of a boost, well, the bars will do OK, for a while. The state will have to live off the earnings of the Permanent fund. There won't be the money to pay dividends and fund the state, so the PFD goes first. The bush will lose that cash boost, to make up for that, there will be a call for an income tax to make it "fair". Now there is not any sort of political will to pass any kind of sales or income tax, not now when the state seems flush and it won't happen when the state really needs it, everyone will be scarbbling for "their" money and won't be in any mood to share . So, the bush is going to want tax money from the cities and the cities are going to see the bush as parasites, the legislature is going to grind to a halt just when action is most needed, the permanent fund gets liquidated and the state keeps that sugar rush going for a few more years.
What should have happened was a serious push for a gas line, 10 years ago. The state would have been wise to invest public money in the line, to make sure it would actually get built. It's too late now, the US and world have plenty of gas available now. North Dakota is booming like Alaska was in the early 80's, and the oil companies are going to invest there. Alaska will be literally half the state it is now, the bush will revert to a true subsistance lifestyle, land might be cheap but nothing else that has to come up from the lesser 48 will be. Sounds dire, and it is.
I'd say hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I've seen the mid 80's....the big differenace was that everyone assumed that the oil industry would recover, "Please God give us one more oil boom, we promise not to **** it away this time" And of course we did.
When Democrats mostly, (but Republicans do it too), make cuts, it's never about them. Schools, police and fire always are at the forefront of their ax. They always go for the cuts that hurt the average person so they can claim it wasn't their fault, which is a load of crap! Never about pork project that will get them votes. And yet the average American isn't smart enough to know they have been hoodwinked.
This sounds very Tea Partyish to me... But at least you said Dems and Repubs do it too....
You all are scaring me as I am about to come to AK. I am not interesting in working in the oil industry, but it seems like everything revolves around it and that it is on its way out.
This sounds very Tea Partyish to me... But at least you said Dems and Repubs do it too....
You all are scaring me as I am about to come to AK. I am not interesting in working in the oil industry, but it seems like everything revolves around it and that it is on its way out.
Dakster,
Don't you realize that the Tea Party has no pull in the AK's politics? It has no pull, not even in Washington's politics. It's the Republicans and Democrats creating all the laws. Tea Party members can whine day in and day out, but that's it
When the oil runs out, there will be a violent and harsh time of adjustment... and when the smoke finally clears, our economy will have been set back, in essence, approximately two hundred years. Oh, we'll still have motorized transportation... but let's face it... if it were practical to develop such on a large scale using something like an electric grid, it would have been developed already. We could still generate as much electricity as is needed, by tapping natural sources like wind, solar, geothermal, hydro power, etc... and that could power a network of electric cars... but figure that the electricity that would be needed to power everything that needs power, in this entire world, would be astronomical. We will find that electricity will, at least temporarily, spike in price so that few of us will have the means or the desire to use it.
To put it simply, when the oil runs out, you'd better know how to feed yourself (as in, grow or raise your own food) and keep your core body temperature at 98.6 degrees in all seasons without electricity or fossil fuels... because if you don't, you're probably going to die.
I don't think the government has contingencies for this. Our government LOVES the petroleum industry because it makes tens of billions of dollars every year in taxes from that industry. It has no desire to kill it nor make it seem like there is much impetus to move away from petroleum. (This is why we have $4.00/gallon gasoline and NOTHING IS BEING DONE ABOUT IT.) Will cities still exist as they do now? Yeah. Cities have existed since long before petroleum. I don't know if they'll lose population or not... they probably will... because some people will have to grow their own food... but for others who won't have to do that, being able to live in an area where they won't need vehicular transportation will be a blessing because there will be no fuel (or, at least, no affordable fuel).
However, I don't think the oil will run out all at once. What'll happen as the tank nears empty is that it will become more and more scarce, the price will go up very quickly, and normal people will be eventually priced out of the market. The richy-rich people who can still afford it will become more and more visible as they're the only ones who will be able to afford to operate their cars... meaning that everyone who is still driving a car when gas is $50.00 per gallon is likely to be a target for crooks (or angry average Americans). Whatever happens, it won't be pretty. The time to get ready for it, if at all possible, is now.
Don't you realize that the Tea Party has no pull in the AK's politics? It has no pull, not even in Washington's politics. It's the Republicans and Democrats creating all the laws. Tea Party members can whine day in and day out, but that's it
Ray recently you posted something about the Tea Party wasn't a real party but the Democratic and Republican parties were the real parties. But the number of requests for donations from everything that calls itself 'tea party' is actually obscene. I asked someone who claims to be a member of the Tea Party what organization he belonged to and received an answer 'none of them' they are just people asking for money to put in their pocket. I then asked what was the tea party he wanted to be associated with and the answer was all I expected; 'we just don't like politicians or government that's all'. I quit there figuring it was just another scam to make money for the scam artists. Now tell me which side are you on? The side that doing the giving or the side doing the asking for?
Ray recently you posted something about the Tea Party wasn't a real party but the Democratic and Republican parties were the real parties. But the number of requests for donations from everything that calls itself 'tea party' is actually obscene. I asked someone who claims to be a member of the Tea Party what organization he belonged to and received an answer 'none of them' they are just people asking for money to put in their pocket. I then asked what was the tea party he wanted to be associated with and the answer was all I expected; 'we just don't like politicians or government that's all'. I quit there figuring it was just another scam to make money for the scam artists. Now tell me which side are you on? The side that doing the giving or the side doing the asking for?
There are two major official political parties in the US: Democrat, and the Republican parties. The Tea party is much of a grassroots movement of people who are displeased with the Democrats and Republicans relating to excessive spending, corrupt political power, the protection of our borders, the curbing of the illegal immigration, the freedom of enterprise, and so on.
I am not a Republican, nor a Democrat. I am not a libertarian, nor a member of the Tea party movement. But I agree more with conservative Americans plus some of the views of the Tea party and libertarians relating to our Constitutional rights, the protection of our borders, the freedom of enterprise by the private sector, and so on.
All political parties collect insane sums of money, and the Democrats and Republicans collect the most. But since this thread is about Alaska oil, my main interest is our politicians and what they do relating to the future of Alaska, which as it is does not look good.
Last edited by RayinAK; 05-26-2014 at 12:48 PM..
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