What happens if the Colorado runs dry? (Benson: land, electric)

[wit-nit]

Are you saying that when the water supplies dry up, then the people will dry up and die too?
Desalination is gonna happen, it has to. Cost will come down as supply and demand and competition increase.
Here is an excerpt about California and other areas desalination.
http://www.coastal.ca.gov/desalrpt/dchap1.htmlOf (broken link) the more than 7,500 desalination plants in operation worldwide, 60% are located in the Middle East. The world's largest plant in Saudi Arabia produces 128 MGD of desalted water. In contrast, 12% of the world's capacity is produced in the Americas, with most of the plants located in the Caribbean and Florida. To date, only a limited number of desalination plants have been built along the California coast, primarily because the cost of desalination is generally higher than the costs of other water supply alternatives available in California (e.g., water transfers and groundwater pumping). However, as drought conditions occur and concern over water availability increases, desalination projects are being proposed at numerous locations in the state.

[steve22]

Originally Posted by nitram

Are you saying that when the water supplies dry up, then the people will dry up and die too?
Desalination is gonna happen, it has to. Cost will come down as supply and demand and competition increase.
Here is an excerpt about California and other areas desalination.
http://www.coastal.ca.gov/desalrpt/dchap1.htmlOf (broken link) the more than 7,500 desalination plants in operation worldwide, 60% are located in the Middle East. The world's largest plant in Saudi Arabia produces 128 MGD of desalted water. In contrast, 12% of the world's capacity is produced in the Americas, with most of the plants located in the Caribbean and Florida. To date, only a limited number of desalination plants have been built along the California coast, primarily because the cost of desalination is generally higher than the costs of other water supply alternatives available in California (e.g., water transfers and groundwater pumping). However, as drought conditions occur and concern over water availability increases, desalination projects are being proposed at numerous locations in the state.

Seriously, I didn't want to get into a huge discussion on this. But again, without going into the nuts, bolts, fluid phase, mass transfer & thermodynamic realities of it, the straight-up truth is that the energy costs of desalination are downright horrendous with the current technology we have. The idea that increased demand will equal increased supply will equal cheaper cost doesn't apply in this situation, unless somehow there becomes a cheaper way to make it. Increased demand in and of itself won't make the process more energy-efficient and therefore cheaper. The water desalinization plants currently being utilized in the Mideast are only practical because those areas have no freshwater alternative for water supplies, and they have sufficient oil reserves to power the plants. If you click the first link I pasted into my last post, you'll find a link to another story from the Natural Resources Defense Council. Here's a paragraph from that article:

"Until very recently, the notion of drinking seawater was lunatic fringe, involving a technology suitable for nuclear submarines and the Middle East, where an oil-rich, water-poor landscape makes financial and practical obstacles irrelevant. In 1960, there were just five desalination plants worldwide. Until the late 1990s, only two American cities had invested in full-fledged desal plants -- Key West, Florida, in the 1980s, and Santa Barbara, California, a decade later. Both cities shelved their plans soon after the facilities were built, having found less expensive sources of water elsewhere. It is still cheaper for Key West to pump freshwater 130 miles from beneath the apron of the Everglades than to desalinate seawater."

REad that whole story here:
About.com: http://www.nrdc.org/onearth/04sum/saline1.asp

Also discussed in this story is another problem I failed to mention, which is that when you desalinate sea water, you end up with a huge amount of waste in the form of discharged brine. Getting rid of that waste, especially for a landlocked community like Phoenix, would be a pretty big problem, don't you think?

The bottom line is, in order to make desalination a reasonably affordable solution for communities in the desert southwest, you're going to have to come up with a much cheaper energy source first- think nuclear. And we're a long way from that becoming a reality. Solar power is another good idea in this region, but I've seen no reason yet to believe that our politicians would ever be so forward-thinking as to aggressively pursue this as a viable mass energy source.

I don't believe that people will just "dry up and die" when the water runs low in the desert SW. The question in my mind isn't whether or not there will be an eventual solution to the problem; I think there will be, and desalination may in fact end up being it, esp. if there aren't any other real options. The million-dollar question, though, is whether or not that solution will be a cheap enough one that it will continue to be a place where the costs of living/ doing business will remain reasonable for employers & middle class families. Unlike the Middle East or Caribbean, in this country we have numerous other climates and geographic regions in which we can choose to live. If water & therefore cost of living in a certain region gets prohibitively expensive, folks & their employers can quite simply pack up and move to the midwest or east coast- which they very likely will do en masse, if it means their water & electric bills would be 1/5 the cost as a result.

I predicted in another post that in 20 years, given its current growth rate & concurrent factors, the desert SW of the future will likely become a place devoid of a middle class, essentially populated only by the super-rich and those too poor to leave. The possibility of this scenario makes me believe that even more.

[kdog]

Originally Posted by steve22

Also discussed in this story is another problem I failed to mention, which is that when you desalinate sea water, you end up with a huge amount of waste in the form of discharged brine. Getting rid of that waste, especially for a landlocked community like Phoenix, would be a pretty big problem, don't you think?

For about the tenth time in this thread, you wouldn't ship salt water to a landlocked community. You would desalinate at the ocean, and ship fresh water.

That last link you posted contained a pretty lengthy, and impartial look at desalination. For example, they state this.

"However, as desalination technology improves, lowering the cost of producing freshwater, more planners are looking to the ocean as the droughtproof guarantor of continued

That's exactly what Nitram said, is it not?

[wit-nit]

Steve22...
I understand excatly what you're saying, and I'm not one with expertise to debate the situation, and I think we both agree something has to be done about the water situation, and the people I have talked to at the Universities in CA and AZ seem to think that desalination is in the future to remedy the water problems. Sure it's gonna cost, yet I remember when gasoline was only 15 cents a gallon too.
What do you think is going to happen, or the solution, when we have 20 million people living in AZ and 50 million in So Calif in the not so distant future. Then we have all the other little pockets of population to take care of.

[ElizaTeal]

If the Colorado River ran dry, I think SRP would have to change its name to SOL!

[esya]

We all become immigrants, like they do in other parts of the world and have in other times.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by KevK

I have an idea and that is for you folks to accept the fact that you live in a DESERT and it was not designed to support lush green lawns.

Speaking of borderline 'deserts': the Atlanta area evidently is still dealing with a severe drought as well. Difference is that us desert rats are geared for droughts-------the eastern US is not for historically understandable reasons.

Last that I heard; that section of the country is down a good 50% on rainfall totals.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by steve22

I predicted in another post that in 20 years, given its current growth rate & concurrent factors, the desert SW of the future will likely become a place devoid of a middle class, essentially populated only by the super-rich and those too poor to leave. The possibility of this scenario makes me believe that even more.

For the record: your scenario describes most of the USA; especially the Frost Belt states with their manufacturing job losses-----which have knocked a lot of people out of Middle Class.

If I am going to struggle financially-------adding cold winters as well is not acceptable to me.

[crystalblue]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Speaking of borderline 'deserts': the Atlanta area evidently is still dealing with a severe drought as well. Difference is that us desert rats are geared for droughts-------the eastern US is not for historically understandable reasons.

Last that I heard; that section of the country is down a good 50% on rainfall totals.

and they took away the water restrictions.

how dumb is that?

[Greatday]

Well, while not yet official, it looks like there may be a "declaration" that the drought period, as it applies to Arizona, is over.

The upper lakes are FULL - so much so that water is, for the first time in YEARS, having to be released, to make room for the run off in the spring.

The rains that have happened - and the ones still coming, are recharging the aquafirs.

The Colorado areas, are filling. The snowpacks are WAY above normal.

AND, the deserts are GREEN - and the wildflowers are blooming like we have not seen in years.