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Old 08-16-2021, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Taipei
8,865 posts, read 8,448,789 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
To make matters worse, Xi Jinping will probably refuse to open up the borders when the rest of the world opens up.
China is trash and Xi is scum etc. etc. etc. but most countries that have successfully contained covid will not open the border. It's the same with Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. The delta variant is too dangerous. Hospitals in countries with high vaccination rate such as Israel are filling up now.
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Old 08-16-2021, 10:54 AM
 
4,698 posts, read 4,075,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
China is trash and Xi is scum etc. etc. etc. but most countries that have successfully contained covid will not open the border. It's the same with Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. The delta variant is too dangerous. Hospitals in countries with high vaccination rate such as Israel are filling up now.
It is not very dangerous if the population is vaccinated with an effective vaccine. For instance, the number of deaths in the UK is less than 10% than the earlier peak and the number of cases is already dropping. Remember, ordinary influenza fills up our hospitals every year and leads to around 50000 deaths per year in the US. As long as the death rate is low, there is no reason to close the borders or keep the economy locked down.

But this is a problem for countries that have managed to keep covid low, because opening up will lead to a lot more deaths, and they may not have prioritized vaccination or have used an ineffective vaccine. But when the rest of the word opens up, they will have to follow or see their economy suffer.
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Old 08-16-2021, 10:57 AM
 
5,527 posts, read 3,254,619 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
The Cold War be different if happen at all.
Correct, the "loss of China" is what spurred Truman and the USA to adopt the Cold War posture worldwide.
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Old 08-16-2021, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Taipei
8,865 posts, read 8,448,789 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
It is not very dangerous if the population is vaccinated with an effective vaccine. For instance, the number of deaths in the UK is less than 10% than the earlier peak and the number of cases is already dropping. Remember, ordinary influenza fills up our hospitals every year and leads to around 50000 deaths per year in the US. As long as the death rate is low, there is no reason to close the borders or keep the economy locked down.
Death rate is increasing in Israel, Britain, and soutern US. Things are not looking good. Sure it's not as bad as last year but nobody knows if it would continue to increase. And it's not just about the death rate, covid patients tend to overwhelm hospitals, which makes it difficult to be treated for other potentially life-threatening disease or injuries. See Texas and Florida right now.

Quote:
But this is a problem for countries that have managed to keep covid low, because opening up will lead to a lot more deaths, and they may not have prioritized vaccination or have used an ineffective vaccine. But when the rest of the word opens up, they will have to follow or see their economy suffer.
Maybe for economies that relied on tourism too much. It was always a bad idea to be dependent on such a volatile sector.
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Old 08-16-2021, 11:31 AM
 
4,698 posts, read 4,075,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
Death rate is increasing in Israel, Britain, and soutern US. Things are not looking good. Sure it's not as bad as last year but nobody knows if it would continue to increase. And it's not just about the death rate, covid patients tend to overwhelm hospitals, which makes it difficult to be treated for other potentially life-threatening disease or injuries. See Texas and Florida right now.

Maybe for economies that relied on tourism too much. It was always a bad idea to be dependent on such a volatile sector.
No, staying locked down while the rest of the world is open, is bad for all economies. Imagine you are a vaccinated businessman in a country who has opened up. You want to partner up with a factory to produce goods to export to your home country, but you want to inspect different factories before making a decision. Would you choose a country where it is almost impossible to get a visa, you will be in hotel quarantine for 14 days, and the country keeps shutting down to stop covid. Or would you choose a country where life has gone back to normal, you can travel as often as you like and there is no quarantine?

Ordinary influenza also leads to lots of deaths and overcrowded hospitals. We don't shut our borders and economy to stop ordinary influenza. Staying locked down does not make sense when the death rate is similar to influenza. If you don't think the death rate is lower, then why is UK having the same amount of cases, but less than 10% of deaths?

And in terms of Florida and Texas, nearly all deaths are among the unvaccinated.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...6e7354f5d5e187

Last edited by Camlon; 08-16-2021 at 11:49 AM..
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Old 08-16-2021, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Taipei
8,865 posts, read 8,448,789 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
No, staying locked down while the rest of the world is open, is bad for all economies. Imagine you are a vaccinated businessman in a country who has opened up. You want to partner up with a factory to produce goods to export to your home country, but you want to inspect different factories before making a decision. Would you choose a country where it is almost impossible to get a visa, you will be in hotel quarantine for 14 days, and the country keeps shutting down to stop covid. Or would you choose a country where life has gone back to normal, you can travel as often as you like and there is no quarantine?
Many countries don't have factories anymore. Australia and New Zealand for example barely have any. It might be a problem for Vietnam or China though.
Quote:
Ordinary influenza also leads to lots of deaths and overcrowded hospitals. We don't shut our borders and economy to stop ordinary influenza. Staying locked down does not make sense when the death rate is similar to influenza. If you don't think the death rate is lower, then why is UK having the same amount of cases, but less than 10% of deaths?
It is lower but it's increasing.

Quote:
And in terms of Florida and Texas, nearly all deaths are among the unvaccinated.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...6e7354f5d5e187
But the hospitals are still full. Both Florida and Texas have fully vaccinated 50% of the population. It's not looking good.
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Old 08-16-2021, 10:00 PM
 
4,698 posts, read 4,075,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
Many countries don't have factories anymore. Australia and New Zealand for example barely have any. It might be a problem for Vietnam or China though.

It is lower but it's increasing.

But the hospitals are still full. Both Florida and Texas have fully vaccinated 50% of the population. It's not looking good.
Countries that don't have factories need to get foreign currency in another way, for instance with tourism, education or export of minerals. If New Zealand remains closed for several years while the rest of the world is open, it will hurt New Zealand tourism and education industry. (Australia is no longer a 0 could country and is likely to open with the rest of the world.)

Yes, the hospitals are full in Texas, but it is due to unvaccinated. The solution is not to stay closed for many years, but to get everyone vaccinated. Also, influenza make the hospitals full too, it's not unprecedented.

And I think you missed what I said about the UK. The number of cases has already peaked and is going down. The number of cases peaked at around the same amount as the earlier peak. But deaths is less than 10% of the earlier peak. If the deaths were to increase to the earlier peak, then the number of cases needs to be around 500,000 per day, which is impossible because with undetected cases it would mean several percent of the population infected per day. Hence, when the population is vaccinated, it is time to go back to normal.

Last edited by Camlon; 08-16-2021 at 10:45 PM..
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Old 08-17-2021, 09:37 AM
 
1,136 posts, read 525,982 times
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Asia and the west are always different.

The fans in football stadiums in england don't wear masks this august.
This is not allowed in highly infected Japan and lowly infected mainland China, HK , Macau and Taiwan. Vaccines can't stop spread, masks are still needed according to experts in these places.
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Old 08-17-2021, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Metro Phoenix
11,039 posts, read 16,866,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomboy- View Post
Asia and the west are always different.

The fans in football stadiums in england don't wear masks this august.
This is not allowed in highly infected Japan and lowly infected mainland China, HK , Macau and Taiwan. Vaccines can't stop spread, masks are still needed according to experts in these places.
It's also highly dependent on what region in the West you are talking about.

I'm currently in New England; where I am in Massachusetts, when I go out to the store, I'd say that probably 60-70% of people and nearly all store workers are wearing masks. 74% of people have received one dose, 64% are fully vaccinated; 2nd highest vaccination rate in the US, low death rate, low burden on hospitals compared to Southern states. Life is honestly pretty much normal here.

It sucks what's happening in TX and FL, but that's because a large number of people are acting like morons, making a show of not getting vaccinated or taking precautions as a matter of pride or a show of political allegiance. Thankfully, it's not affecting us much here, and I honestly don't think it will.
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Old 08-23-2021, 01:57 AM
 
9,229 posts, read 9,760,484 times
Reputation: 3316
Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k View Post
It's also highly dependent on what region in the West you are talking about.

I'm currently in New England; where I am in Massachusetts, when I go out to the store, I'd say that probably 60-70% of people and nearly all store workers are wearing masks. 74% of people have received one dose, 64% are fully vaccinated; 2nd highest vaccination rate in the US, low death rate, low burden on hospitals compared to Southern states. Life is honestly pretty much normal here.

It sucks what's happening in TX and FL, but that's because a large number of people are acting like morons, making a show of not getting vaccinated or taking precautions as a matter of pride or a show of political allegiance. Thankfully, it's not affecting us much here, and I honestly don't think it will.
Arlington and Winchester in MA require masks again. Maybe in some other towns too.

However, It is not required in Boston. And the casino is still open.
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