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A new book, China Coup, by Roger Garside suggests an internal coup against CCP rule is coming:
Quote:
Before the next National Congress of the Communist Party of
China, due in November 2022, President Xi Jinping will be removed
from office by a coup d’ tat mounted by rivals in the top leadership
who will end the tyranny of the one-party dictatorship and launch
a transition to democracy and the rule of law.
The main body of this book, Part 2, explains why it will happen.
Parts 1 and 3 tell how it may happen; they are semi-fictional—the
people named are real, while the storyline is fiction.
The future I predict depends on men and women in China, the
United States, and its liberal, democratic allies displaying courage
and wisdom. These qualities have been in short supply in recent
years, except in places like Hong Kong and Taiwan, but there is good
reason to believe they are not extinct.
He is arguing for a coup, not predicting one. And it is wishful thinking as to everything coming up roses if only this or that government would topple. How'd that Iraq come out?
I just don't see it. Why would the one party in power have an internal coup to remove itself from power? As a one party state, the CCP has no political competitors. Removing Xi I can see, internal power struggles within the CCP happen, but CCP itself will remain.
Such changes need to be brought from outside the party, by an underground movement. Difficult since such dissension is quickly and brutally suppressed by the authorities (last time was Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and we all know how that turned out).
There has to be another catalyst to bring a popular uprising - for instance a collapse of the economy, as for now the people of China are willing to give up personal freedom if it comes with economic prosperity.
what makes a democracy though? purposely having two parties fight each other over every single issue?
what's to stop any ordinary chinese from getting into politics and becoming the next leaders of china?
one could argue that the path is easier than any ordinary american in the US from doing the same.
I just don't see it. Why would the one party in power have an internal coup to remove itself from power? As a one party state, the CCP has no political competitors. Removing Xi I can see, internal power struggles within the CCP happen, but CCP itself will remain.
Such changes need to be brought from outside the party, by an underground movement. Difficult since such dissension is quickly and brutally suppressed by the authorities (last time was Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and we all know how that turned out).
There has to be another catalyst to bring a popular uprising - for instance a collapse of the economy, as for now the people of China are willing to give up personal freedom if it comes with economic prosperity.
I agree it's not likely. The only way it's possible is if the party is internally split, with enough people near the top genuinely wanting change. This was largely what happened in the USSR at the end, resulting in Yeltsin pushing for Russian secession from it. Given how opaque the Chinese system is there's no way to know if such a dynamic is in play until after it happens.
A possible catalyst for it could be US sanctions and a trade embargo. With the Hong Kong Autonomy Act this could happen. Depends on how bought off the Biden administration is.
I agree it's not likely. The only way it's possible is if the party is internally split, with enough people near the top genuinely wanting change. This was largely what happened in the USSR at the end, resulting in Yeltsin pushing for Russian secession from it. Given how opaque the Chinese system is there's no way to know if such a dynamic is in play until after it happens.
Have not finished the book but the underlined part above is what may happen. No "expert" predicted the fall of the USSR either.
The recent defector to USA is a high ranking CCP comrade, so opacity is ending.
He is a British diplomat which tells you a lot about their inclination to desire toppling other governments. He is upset because the Chinese government had made it difficult for foreign organizations to manipulate the electoral process to force a change in government. All the other measures, such as Islamic insurgents, terrorism, and protests, are for naught if the manipulation of public opinion can't yield their desired result.
So now, he wants a coup. Usually, those factions have ties to foreign financial interests which intend to break up the country and taking over ownership from the Chinese. With the tight controls on the financial system, it'd be difficult.
Chinese government sees extreme poverty, social chaos, and ethnic factions pitted against each other if the US/British empire had its way. It'd be very bloody for a long time.
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