5,505,161 (Atlanta, Marietta, Smyrna: fit in, apartments, foreclosures)

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

It is also about equally dense, if not more so, than Cobb in particular,

I just took out 24 sq mi (as if it were completely empty) completely out of Gwinnett, to account for that area you speak of near Dacula, but I let you have the entire Gwinnett population. Mind you, that's a larger area than Smyrna itself I pretended doesn't exist (except the people there, whom just got relocated to Lawrenceville or something ) and Gwinnett still comes in under Cobb for density. It makes them closer, but still facts are facts... With less pressure on the Gwinnett market because there's land available, it's less likely to build up. In fact, Cobb has pressure even from outside the county... Cherokee and Paulding are pretty developed on the half of those counties touching Cobb. That creates additional pressure.

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

And like Cobb County has plans to redevelop the US 41 Cobb County corridor with high-density development along a high-capacity transit line, Gwinnett County also has plans to redevelop the I-85 corridor with high-density development at and around stations along a proposed light rail transit line.
http://www.dot.ga.gov/aboutGeorgiado...85Corridor.pdf

Is this the same rail line that Gwinnett county residents already voted down twice? I don't see how it can be "planned" if it is being consistently voted down.

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

The overbuilding of Gwinnett's real estate market during boom periods has often resulted in an over-inventory of residential and commercial real estate during slower periods making it very-easy for minorities and immigrants to move into the county

Sounds like Cobb 20-30 years ago, and Fulton and Dekalb before that. This only reinforces that Gwinnett is about 20 years behind in development.

There are no suburbs of Gwinnett County, whereas Cobb has Paulding County and some of Cherokee county as suburbs of Cobb. In fact, Gwinnett is largely a suburb of Dekalb County.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Is this the same rail line that Gwinnett county residents already voted down twice? I don't see how it can be "planned" if it is being consistently voted down.

This is likely a different deal from what Gwinnett County residents voted down in the past which was paying a 1% sales tax to join MARTA and being faced with not receiving any transit service for up to about 15 years after paying the tax to join.

That plan in the link is for a light rail line that runs completely within Gwinnett and connects at a transfer point with a MARTA heavy rail extension to the DeKalb-Gwinnett county line.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by netdragon

I just took out 24 sq mi (as if it were completely empty) completely out of Gwinnett, to account for that area you speak of near Dacula, but I let you have the entire Gwinnett population. Mind you, that's a larger area than Smyrna itself I pretended doesn't exist (except the people there, whom just got relocated to Lawrenceville or something ) and Gwinnett still comes in under Cobb for density. It makes them closer, but still facts are facts... With less pressure on the Gwinnett market because there's land available, it's less likely to build up. In fact, Cobb has pressure even from outside the county... Cherokee and Paulding are pretty developed on the half of those counties touching Cobb. That creates additional pressure.

Ok lets assume 24 sq mi. is the magic number of undeveloped land Gwinnett has additional to Cobb, which I don't believe is enough. That would only 5.5% of our land. We are approaching built out, but we aren't that close.

But still lets go with it... for your sake

2013 Census Estimates
Cobb:

717,190
sq mi. of land: 339.55
density 2,112.17

Gwinnett:
859,304
sq mi. of land: 430.38
density 1,996.61
Take the 24 sq mi. 'bonus' you proposed
sq mi. 406.38
density w/ bonus: 2,114.53

So ... Gwinnett would come in above Cobb for density in your scenario.

We have more census tracts over 5000 ppsm
We have more census tracts between 3000-5000 ppsm too.

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

We have more census tracts over 5000 ppsm

Where?

I don't see any over 5,000/sqmi census tracts in Gwinnett based on 2010 census data. Where is your data from?

Plus, it turns out the most populous tracts in Gwinnett are in the almost empty area we talked about (those tracts are in the 10,000-20,000 range but extremely large and sparse). So removing them would also take out quite a bit of population. Equipped with this new info, we can see that removing them keeps Cobb still denser than Gwinnett.

It's pretty plain to see just by looking at the map above zoomed out that Cobb is more urbanized than Gwinnett. Smyrna, Cumberland, Marietta and Vinings blend together as one urban core, and the hole in the center is an airforce base. Then, the rest of the county is still mostly yellows and oranges. Gwinnett has a bunch of disjoint clusters, and most of its dense tracts are old developments right on the edge of Dekalb. Note that the NW tract in Cobb is mostly a lake but Acworth is developed right up to the edge of the lake, so if the color were purely based on land area, it'd be bright orange. Lake Lanier borders Gwinnett, so a lake doesn't affect Gwinnett's population density at all.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Sounds like Cobb 20-30 years ago, and Fulton and Dekalb before that. This only reinforces that Gwinnett is about 20 years behind in development.

Saying that Gwinnett is about 20 years behind in development may not necessarily be as appropriate as a statement as saying that Gwinnett does not necessarily have commercial district like Cumberland, which is a higher-density mall-anchored commercial district at the junction of two major interstate superhighways.

But Gwinnett County does have much commercial and industrial development through the Norcross, Peachtree Corners and Duluth areas along with the retail development in various parts of the county (like in P'tree Corners, Duluth, Buford, Lawrenceville, Snellville, etc).

It should also be noted that Cobb County has also had a political culture that has been very-friendly to real estate developers throughout the post-World War II era.

Much overbuilding of residential development has also gone on in Cobb County over the last 3-4 decades as evidenced by the existence of so many aging detached single-family homes and townhomes and the presence of a very fast-growing minority population in the county.

Cobb County is not as demographically-dominated by minorities as Gwinnett County is, but minorities still make up about 45% of Cobb County's fast-growing population, a figure that is up from 1980 when minorities only made up about 6% of Cobb County's population.

Originally Posted by netdragon

There are no suburbs of Gwinnett County, whereas Cobb has Paulding County and some of Cherokee county as suburbs of Cobb. In fact, Gwinnett is largely a suburb of Dekalb County.

That is a good point that Gwinnett County does not necessarily have as much spillover in its development patterns as Cobb County has had with its development patterns spilling-over into outlying Paulding and Cherokee counties.

Though, Gwinnett County does have some degree of development spillover (albeit a less-intense degree of development spillover) into outlying counties like Hall County (due to the presence of Lake Lanier and the presence of the I-985 spur off of I-85), Jackson County (in the Braselton/Chateau Elan area), Barrow County (by way of the GA 316 corridor into the Appalachee area of Barrow County), and Walton County (along the US 78 corridor in the Loganville area).

But it does not matter if Gwinnett County does not have as much spillover in its development patterns as Cobb County because at this point, it will be difficult for counties like Cobb and DeKalb to make up so much ground on Gwinnett population-wise.

That's because at present, Gwinnett County has about 142,000 more residents than Cobb County and about 146,000 more residents than DeKalb County.

For Cobb and DeKalb counties to gain that much ground on Gwinnett population-wise, Gwinnett County would almost literally have to cease all population growth or have its growth slow to a very-low rate.

With Gwinnett currently leading the state in the numbers of residents added each year, the numbers say that an extreme slowdown of population growth in Gwinnett while both Cobb and DeKalb continue growing explosively is not likely to happen, particularly with Gwinnett having a unique ultra-diverse niche with an international flair that both Cobb and DeKalb do not necessarily have.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by netdragon

Where?

I don't see any over 5,000/sqmi census tracts in Gwinnett based on 2010 census data. Where is your data from?

Plus, it turns out the most populous tracts in Gwinnett are in the almost empty area we talked about (those tracts are in the 10,000-20,000 range but extremely large and sparse). So removing them would also take out quite a bit of population. Equipped with this new info, we can see that removing them keeps Cobb still denser than Gwinnett.

It's pretty plain to see just by looking at the map above zoomed out that Cobb is more urbanized than Gwinnett. Smyrna, Cumberland, Marietta and Vinings blend together as one urban core, and the hole in the center is an airforce base. Then, the rest of the county is still mostly yellows and oranges. Gwinnett has a bunch of disjoint clusters, and most of its dense tracts are old developments right on the edge of Dekalb. Note that the NW tract in Cobb is mostly a lake but Acworth is developed right up to the edge of the lake, so if the color were purely based on land area, it'd be bright orange. Lake Lanier borders Gwinnett, so a lake doesn't affect Gwinnett's population density at all.

I'm trying not to laugh right now. This is getting pathetic. Let me know if your hands hurt. I can get you a shovel, kid.

You're looking at population totals, you have to look at density

When you -do- click density that nice little map is in km^2, not ppsm or mi^2.

The large, sparse tracts haven't been divided by the census bureau yet, because of limited development. Therefore the census tract has a larger area, larger population, but low density. You've shown nothing.

Use the NYtimes mapping america map, census.gov, or usa.com/gwinnett-county-ga.htm

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

The large, sparse tracts haven't been divided by the census bureau yet, because of limited development. Therefore the census tract has a larger area, larger population, but low density. You've shown nothing.

What I'm saying is that even if you pull these large tracts out, and their population with them, Gwinnett STILL has a lower density than Cobb County. Even when we left the population but just removed the tracts from land count, you've shown that it took Gwinnett dropping 24 sq mi of land but keeping the same population for Gwinnett to even surpass Cobb by 2k people. But we have to remove the people that land added as well (~ 500/km^2 still adds up)

Plus, Cobb's core (Marietta, Cumberland, Smyrna) has a more urban development pattern, whereas Gwinnett is more suburban.

[netdragon]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

That's because at present, Gwinnett County has about 142,000 more residents than Cobb County and about 146,000 more residents than DeKalb County.

I may have to concede that point. I thought about how many mid-rise condo buildings it'd take to bridge that gap. Something like 50-100. I don't see either Dekalb or Cobb building that many any time soon. It'd take a while.