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I agree with that. I think that even if Atlanta's runaway growth slows, it has now reached a critical mass where it, like a Chicago for example, will always have a certain residual growth factor, because it has set itself up as one of the 4 or 5 central urban 'nodes' in the constellation of cities in N America. Unlike Chicago, which has had no rival in its region in a half century, Atlanta may have others, such as Tampa and Charlotte, that draw off some of the growth. Despite that, Atlanta will in all likelihood still enjoy an advantage in terms of size, prestige and importance over these other places for an indefinite time to come.
Yes, and what some don't realize, is that the larger population a population grows, its rate of growth will lower--even if the area is adding more people during a given period of time.
Also, I do think Atlanta is like Chicago...there is no real rival in the South for Atlanta.
Under Chicago, there is Saint Louis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Detroit (which is the "next" under Chicago).
Under Atlanta, there is New Orleans, Nashville, Memphis, Richmond, Raleigh-Durham, Jacksonville, Norfolk, Louisville, and Charlotte (which is the "next" under Atlanta).
Atlanta will remain 3 to 4 times larger than Charlotte.
Trust me on this one, chamber of commerce statements like the "3 to 4 times larger" bull is why Charlotte now claims to be the "largest CITY between DC and Dallas". This Charlotte claim is just as stupid as the aforementioned Atlanta claim, however it is a claim that I have seen a few times around Charlotte. It is a subtle diss towards Atlanta's "smaller" CITY population that I think our boosters should stop using. However, I know for a fact that Atlanta booster are making similar dumb statements about Charlotte, so I guess it is all fair game.
At the end of the day it's basically city marketing reduced to the most crass level of product hawking in general, and it's not new either. It's been big business since at least the 1893 World's Fair in Chicago, which (with some success) touted Chicago as the next great modern metropolis. So that's not going anywhere anytime soon. The point is that quite frankly, and much as it pains me to admit it, Charlotte's boast is in a sense justified, since Atlanta still lags badly in the population rankings for a city that (justifiably in my view) lays claim to being one of the nation's 4-5 most important urban centers.
If you ask me what one thing Atlanta needs to really ascend to the first or second tier of world cities as it so fervently wants to do -- well actually there are 3 things -- annexation and a city population of around 1.5 million is at the top (the others being greater "density" and a solid regional transportation network).
At the end of the day it's basically city marketing reduced to the most crass level of product hawking in general, and it's not new either. It's been big business since at least the 1893 World's Fair in Chicago, which (with some success) touted Chicago as the next great modern metropolis. So that's not going anywhere anytime soon. The point is that quite frankly, and much as it pains me to admit it, Charlotte's boast is in a sense justified, since Atlanta still lags badly in the population rankings for a city that (justifiably in my view) lays claim to being one of the nation's 4-5 most important urban centers.
If you ask me what one thing Atlanta needs to really ascend to the first or second tier of world cities as it so fervently wants to do -- well actually there are 3 things -- annexation and a city population of around 1.5 million is at the top (the others being greater "density" and a solid regional transportation network).
I think you can throw the Annexation push away cause theirs no where for Atlanta to Annex unless into Dekalb, Douglass, or Cobb counties.
Density and high poulation, doesn't truly make a city a world city thats just something a lot of the major cities have in common now. To me what makes a city a world city is the quality of the citizens, the number of companies that come from the city and that are headquatered in the city. The number of international tourist who want to visit that city and the different international people that live in the city. Those are some of the things that make a city a world city.
I know this thread is about "missing Charlotte" but I had to respond in general to some of the myths about Charlotte's size and growth when compared to Atlanta. FWIW, I do agree that Charlotte is 30 years behind Atlanta. However, Charlotte does seem to have a larger growth rate in its core counties. Allow me to explain.
Stats for the Atlanta counties
3,509,234 (2000 population)
4,385,308 (2008) this population figure is roughly 76% of Atlanta's current CSA population
876,074 people added from 2000 to 2008 (roughly a 25% growth rate)
3,515 sq/mi of land
Stats for the Charlotte counties
1,491,690 (2000 population)
1,906,742 (2008) this population figure is roughly 79% of Charlotte's current CSA population
415,052 people added from 2000 to 2008 (roughly a 28% growth rate)
3,440 sq/mi of land
Back in 2000, one could possibly make the claim that Atlanta was 3 to 4 times Charlotte's size (the numbers from 2000 kinda support such a claim). However, look at the 2008 numbers. If this trend countinues, Charlotte could be more than half Atlanta's size (at the core county level) within 15 to 20 years (if not sooner). It is NOT wise to claim that Atlanta is "3 to 4 times larger than Charlotte" based solely on UA numbers (and outdated UA figures at that). It is safe to say that Charlotte's UA growth rate is just as large as Atlanta's UA growth rate. Honestly, Charlotte's UA growth rate could be higher. FWIW, UA omits WAY too many areas that are below a certain density. Clearly (as my comparison has shown) Charlotte is NOT 33% nor 25% of Atlanta. To say such a thing is just an outright lie. Give me some credit. I atleast took the time to check the "best" core county numbers for both cities and compared them. I honestly don't care which city is larger or "missed the most" by someone. I just don't like it when bull about Charlotte is being spread on the internet. Keep it real, keep it honest; and y'all won't ever hear a peep out of me. Good night!
It looks like you cherry picked counties in order to make your point. You never gave your criteria for what you consider "core counties." I just think it's best to use the Census designations since the same standard is applied across the board; otherwise, anybody could gather any conglomeration of counties to make a point either way. The "3 to 4 times larger" claim is pretty accurate using standard Census metrics (MSA, CSA, UA, etc.) and I think it's a bit harsh to make it seem as though people are being blatant liars by making that claim using the standard Census metrics. And you can't poo-poo one metric (UA) just because it doesn't suit your tastes. And there's a perfectly good reason why areas below a certain density aren't included in that statistic: they cannot be called "urban" when the density is that low. I don't really even think people are using that metric anyway when they make the "3 to 4 times larger" statement. If you actually went by the most recent UA estimates, Atlanta is a little over 4 times larger than Charlotte.
Last edited by Akhenaton06; 12-01-2009 at 10:51 AM..
It looks like you cherry picked counties in order to make your point. I just think it's best to use the Census designations since the same standard is applied across the board; otherwise, anybody could gather any conglomeration of counties to make a point either way. The "3 to 4 times larger" claim is pretty accurate.
I agree with most of what you said above except the point about Atlanta remaining 3 to 4 times larger than Charlotte. That's not to say that I believe Charlotte will catch up; it may, it may not, but I can't say what will continue to be with any certainty whatsoever. At one point, Chicago and St. Louis were about the same size. At one point, Detroit was nipping at Chicago's heels. Los Angeles used to be smaller than Chicago. Baltimore used to be bigger than DC. And so on and so forth.
I think you can throw the Annexation push away cause theirs no where for Atlanta to Annex unless into Dekalb, Douglass, or Cobb counties.
Well, clearly it's not an easy thing to imagine, otherwise it would have happened long ago. But obviously in Atlanta's case it's got to be one of the counties, or there just wouldn't be enough of a gain to be worth talking about. But I would assert that, unlikely though it may appear today a Fulton-CoA annexation (or portaion of Fulton) may not be as unthinkable 15-20 yrs down the road as you may think. And that would be more than enough to put Atlanta's population into the range I'm talking about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mgyeldell
Density and high poulation, doesn't truly make a city a world city thats just something a lot of the major cities have in common now. To me what makes a city a world city is the quality of the citizens, the number of companies that come from the city and that are headquatered in the city. The number of international tourist who want to visit that city and the different international people that live in the city. Those are some of the things that make a city a world city.
l'll concede that density and population do not in and of themselves confer that status on a city. But without them, it's hard to see how a city gains it.
l'll concede that density and population do not in and of themselves confer that status on a city. But without them, it's hard to see how a city gains it.
Very true. The top tier of world class cities are all quite dense and very populous.
It looks like you cherry picked counties in order to make your point. You never gave your criteria for what you consider "core counties." I just think it's best to use the Census designations since the same standard is applied across the board; otherwise, anybody could gather any conglomeration of counties to make a point either way. The "3 to 4 times larger" claim is pretty accurate using standard Census metrics and I think it's a bit harsh to make it seem as though people are being blatant liars by making that claim using the standard Census metrics.
I picked the counties with the highest numerical growth, highest population, and the closest distance from the downtown's of both cities. My goal was to do this without going over 3,500 sq/mi (which I did go slightly over that with Atlanta, but some counties were just too important to omit from Atlanta). The reason why I chose 3,500 sq/mi is because almost everyone in such an area is less than 1 hour from the center of town (commuting distance). If you wish to accuse me of "cherry picking" the facts, that is YOUR opinion (and quite frankly, my reps to posts ratio compared to yours is....... I won't even go there today ).
Again, I chose the largest, fastest growing, and closest counties for both cities. I also kept the population between 75-80% of the CSA population's for both cities. I kept the land area near 3,500 sq/mi for both cities. I also gave US census links for each county I used.
No offense, but there are TONS of flaws and half truths in MSA, UA, CSA, city, and county population stats. This is why I tend to ignore them all and just go with how many people live within a commutable distance of a city's business district. In the case of Atlanta, the number is almost 4.5 million as of last year. In Charlotte's case, the number is almost 2 million as of last year. Same land area for both; same distance from downtown for both.
Now, as for the Census designation for MSA vs CSA, here are two examples of flaws that I have found.
Example number One
I know you are familiar with the CSA counties of Lincoln, Lancaster, and Iredell. Do you really believe that the three aforementioned counties are "less connected" to Charlotte than the MSA county of Anson? If you do, you do not know metro Charlotte very well my friend.
Example number two
If Mecklenburg county had 3,500 sq/mi of land, Charlotte's MSA would have a population of nearly 2 million people. Where in the US can one find an example of this actually happening you might ask? Ever been to Vegas dude? I have!
Las Vegas has a "larger" MSA than Charlotte (1.9 million vs 1.7 million). However, Las Vegas is a one county MSA (a 7,910 sq/mi large county at that). Clark County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
What do you think Charlotte's "MSA" would be if Mecklenburg county had 7,910 sq/mi of real estate huh? Do you still think that Census defined MSAs are "the bible" when it comes to "sizing up" an area? If so, I have TONS more examples, but I think you get it now (or at least you should).
In short, I have my reasons for ignoring the census defined MSA/CSA populations of most cities (and it has NOTHING to do with "cherry picking" the numbers to prove a point). I just know for a fact that the rules for determining MSA designations are flawed (and just like before) they are subject to being changed again.
I agree with most of what you said above except the point about Atlanta remaining 3 to 4 times larger than Charlotte. That's not to say that I believe Charlotte will catch up; it may, it may not, but I can't say what will continue to be with any certainty whatsoever. At one point, Chicago and St. Louis were about the same size. At one point, Detroit was nipping at Chicago's heels. Los Angeles used to be smaller than Chicago. Baltimore used to be bigger than DC. And so on and so forth.
Well...you have to remember Atlanta's role as the primary city of the American South...a mega-region that can be seen as a separate country (worldly, internationally speaking).
Atlanta will always see growth now. Chicago and Saint Louis were the same size (as were Atlanta and Birmingham) until Chicago emerged as the primary city of the Midwest (as Atlanta has emerged in the South). Once a city reaches a status like this, it will always see growth, maintain its dominance, and remain pretty difficult to be overtaken (or closed-in upon) by other cities in the region.
All of the stagnant/declining cities in the U.S. never reached preeminent/dominant status in their region (or never maintained it for a long period of time--being dominant as the frontier was being settled/stretched doesn't count): Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, etc.
I actually think that it is probable that Atlanta will end up being greater than 3 to 4 times larger than Charlotte...
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Good night!
I won't even go there today 
).
