Is Austin currently experiencing a real estate bubble? (Houston, Round Rock: real estate market, foreclosed)

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by SickOfCalifornia

These replies all sound reasonable. But they are really just wild guesses.

Don't you mean "These replies are all wild guesses, but they sound really reasonable"?

The market is picking up. We're starting to see seller-market-like happenings, such as multiple offers, frustrated buyers, and high Active/Pending ratios in certain pockets and neighborhoods, indicating strong absorption.

Simultaneously, we see sluggish activity also. Many listings with high days on market, even after big price drops.

It's a bifurcated market but the lines of delineation are difficult to identify. In other words, there is not clear rhyme or reason to explain why some listings get snapped up and other sit.

Finally, the price of gas is a game changer. At $4/gal, buyers start to actually calculate the commuting costs into a home. The age old saying of "drive till you can afford it" no longer applies, and the outer fringe starts to seem expensive instead of cheap. We've always believed in buying close in, smaller homes in better locations, and it's even more prudent to do so now.

Steve

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

It's a bifurcated market but the lines of delineation are difficult to identify. In other words, ...
Steve

Dang! And I thought the elections were NEXT year! Such language!!!

[10scoachrick]

AND for those not conversant on gobbledyspeak...

Bifurcation
When a non-linear dynamic system (http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/bfglosd.htm#dynamical_systems - broken link) develops twice the possible solutions that it had before it passed its critical level. A bifurcation cascade is often called the period doubling (http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/bfglosd.htm#doubling_option - broken link) route to chaos because the transition from an orderly system to a chaotic system often occurs when the number of possible solutions begins increasing, doubling each time.


So there!

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

AND for those not conversant on gobbledyspeak...

Bifurcation
When a non-linear dynamic system (http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/bfglosd.htm#dynamical_systems - broken link) develops twice the possible solutions that it had before it passed its critical level. A bifurcation cascade is often called the period doubling (http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/bfglosd.htm#doubling_option - broken link) route to chaos because the transition from an orderly system to a chaotic system often occurs when the number of possible solutions begins increasing, doubling each time.


So there!

That's exactly what I meant!

Actually, it's a Marty Feldman Market.

Steve

[CptnRn]

It doesn't surprise me that housing prices have continued to rise here, even though at slower rates then in the past. There has been a continual migration of new people moving to Austin. I saw several news articles recently that documented a decrease in the construction of new housing due to tighter financing requirements, coupled with apartment occupancy rates at record high levels, all this has to lead to housing shortages and higher prices.

[pjoseph2]

It's nice to be a buyer just now. Lots of inventory out there in every price range. The strictest lending guidelines (and the lowest interest rates) in an entire generation. Echo effects of the Case Shiller index

Anyone know of any neighborhoods that are red hot?

Conclusion: Rentals, strong. Homebuying, lukewarm.

[handog]

IMHO you are better off renting right now. Look at the big picture. Housing prices are going to continue to fall. There’s a guy at work who keeps bragging about the seven thousand dollar tax break he got for buying a house. I didn’t have the heart to tell him his house is going to depreciate more than that. The tax break was the governments way of suckering a lot of people into a falling market. Look at CA. the market has fallen off the cliff with no end in sight. Although TX is not nearly as volatile as CA you should remember the old saying “ As goes CA so does the rest of the country.”
Besides, you can never really pay off a house. I occasionally run into an arrogant Texan who brags about having their house paid free and clear. My response: Ya, try not paying your property taxes and you will see who really owns it. You are just buying the right to RENT from the government.

[cBach]

handog, there's one thing you're not considering. They are projecting Austin to be 7.8 million people by 2050. All those people have to live somewhere, and there's not enough space to keep sprawling out. All places will become more valuable, with the core areas and the desireable areas (near the lakes) will be extremely valuable. Once the entire Lake Travis shoreline gets built out, new buyers looking to have lakefront land on Lake Travis will have to pay a premium, simple supply and demand.

There will be a bubble and a bust, that is how the economy is structured. We haven't even begun the bubble yet. Timing it all will be key, however. You can't have a city ranked #1 in all categories not expected to have a price surge. Bottom line.

[DianeV]

bfurcated: To separate into two parts or branches; fork.
bifurcate: Definition, Synonyms from Answers.com

[JohnHenrySDM]

Originally Posted by handog

Look at the big picture. Housing prices are going to continue to fall.

But the fact of the matter is that you can't say that with any more certainty than someone else can say the exact opposite.