How many decades before the hill country is built out? (Austin: apartment, how much)

[Uberguber]

I keep hearing that it's a scarce resource and that I should buy a house before I miss out, but over 75% of western travis is not built out yet, and every year developers keep starting new developments on land that is supposedly protected.

How much of a supply of raw land do we have in the hill country? 20 years, 50 years, 100 years?
There are small chunks that are bought up and protected and they make a big deal on the news about it, but the vast majority of land seems fair game for new subdivisions.

Anyone have a MAP showing what's off limits? What percentage of the county?

This seems to be a well protected secret for some reason.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

and every year developers keep starting new developments on land that is supposedly protected.

Such as?



You've got the Balcones Canyonlands refuge, you know that's not going to be developed. There's also tons of land that is probably not viable for development due to topographic issues (too sheer).

[Uberguber]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Such as?

Avana, Avana Esquel, Aviara, Canyon Crossing at Highpointe, Four Pointes, Bear Creek, Sweetwater, Spanish Oaks, Ashton Woods, Crystal Falls, Palmera Ridge, Circle C Barstow Place, Circle C fairway estates, Meridian, Rough Hollow, Estancia Hill Country. There is a new apartment development going up just west of the Y, and new townhomes just past that. Doesn't sound unbuildable to me.

The Balcones Canyonland is on the far NW corner of Travis county, and only takes up 10% of the county.

Travis County is 654,000 acres, with about 350,000 acres of it being west of mopac.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Avana, Avana Esquel, Aviara, Canyon Crossing at Highpointe, Four Pointes, Bear Creek, Sweetwater, Spanish Oaks, Ashton Woods, Crystal Falls, Palmera Ridge, Circle C Barstow Place, Circle C fairway estates, Meridian, Rough Hollow, Estancia Hill Country. There is a new apartment development going up just west of the Y, and new townhomes just past that. Doesn't sound unbuildable to me.

The Balcones Canyonland is on the far NW corner of Travis county, and only takes up 10% of the county.

Travis County is 654,000 acres, with about 350,000 acres of it being west of mopac.

So which of those were on land that was "supposedly protected"?

So if Balcones is 10% of the county, but only half the county is hill country, then 20% of the hill country in Travis is protected, just from _that one_ refuge. Not counting other parks and open spaces, other set-asides, etc.

[BriansZ]

I would think that 50 years from now they'll still be building out there. It is a large area, of course developers will gradually move farther out as they go. I was just looking at a map of Travisso which will be next to Crystal Falls. I went for a trail run on Christmas and ran through some of that area, over 2,000 acres and nearly 3,000 homes once completed. Just that neighborhood will probably take over 10 years to build out, and there is a lot more land available.
Travisso - Defining the Art of Living

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Avana, Avana Esquel, Aviara, Canyon Crossing at Highpointe, Four Pointes, Bear Creek, Sweetwater, Spanish Oaks, Ashton Woods, Crystal Falls, Palmera Ridge, Circle C Barstow Place, Circle C fairway estates, Meridian, Rough Hollow, Estancia Hill Country. There is a new apartment development going up just west of the Y, and new townhomes just past that. Doesn't sound unbuildable to me.

The Balcones Canyonland is on the far NW corner of Travis county, and only takes up 10% of the county.

Travis County is 654,000 acres, with about 350,000 acres of it being west of mopac.

The Texas Hill Country is much bigger than Travis County.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

I keep hearing that it's a scarce resource and that I should buy a house before I miss out, but over 75% of western travis is not built out yet, and every year developers keep starting new developments on land that is supposedly protected.

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Avana, Avana Esquel, Aviara, Canyon Crossing at Highpointe, Four Pointes, Bear Creek, Sweetwater, Spanish Oaks, Ashton Woods, Crystal Falls, Palmera Ridge, Circle C Barstow Place, Circle C fairway estates, Meridian, Rough Hollow, Estancia Hill Country.

Two thirds of those projects have development plans that started years, if not decades ago. They didn't start "every year". Somple solution - if you think there is an endless supply of hill country land and prices will remain flat, buy when you want. No one will try to talk you into it. But remember - what they aren't developing is stuff closer to town. The distance to downtown grows for each new development.

[Uberguber]

Originally Posted by scm53

Two thirds of those projects have development plans that started years, if not decades ago. They didn't start "every year". Somple solution - if you think there is an endless supply of hill country land and prices will remain flat, buy when you want. No one will try to talk you into it. But remember - what they aren't developing is stuff closer to town. The distance to downtown grows for each new development.

But the time it takes to get downtown grows every year because of the developemtn further out. Same distance to DT, increased time in traffic to get downtown, but the prices will go up anyways? Doesn't compute.

[Uberguber]

Originally Posted by scm53

Two thirds of those projects have development plans that started years, if not decades ago. They didn't start "every year".

Those developments are STILL under construction. What does that tell you about land availability in the Hill Country? Are developers focusing on the Hill Country because of increased profit margin? They would rather wait a year to make 100K off a homebuyer, rather than 2 months to make 25K like they would in town?

My premise is that the Hill country is in decline, and it's being touted as a bill of goods but it's quality is depreciating every year. Density in the hill country is it's conclusion, and will be a disaster for the quality of life of its residents.

Look at the Covert Ford debacle in Bee Caves. It's the beginning. For the next 50 years, the residents will have to spend their time, energy and money fighting over development.

Why couldn't people just live in Austin, and visit the hill country when they wanted to? Why did people have to ruin it out of sheer greed and ego, and the phantom menace of poor minorities they are trying to escape from.

It's sad for everyoen, including the homeowners already out there, and there's no way to stop the decline.

[Uberguber]

The city of Austin seems to no longer care either:

City of Austin is watering down Barton Springs protections,... | www.statesman.com

BTW the balcones canyonland is 10% of WESTERN Travis county, and is about 5% of the Travis county total and is in the far NW corner. That land would be developed last anyways, so what does that shave off? 10 years? We only have what, 80 years of land left, instead of 90?

Look at SW Travis county south of 71! It's an undeveloped and unprotected area about 5 miles by 20 miles.

What is that, a 50 year supply of buildable land? Will we have enough water to reach that point anyways? Why the panic about being priced out? It will still be there 30 years from now and it will be the same price.

Are homebuyers in the hill country being told about the development that's coming after them, or are they being lied to?