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Heh, I would love to respond to a lot of this mis-information, but too hard to type with one hand (new baby in the other arm, and she is sleeping). Will have to wait...
Well, per misinformation, I've pulled almost all of it directly from the web.....
The only true variable is if we should care or not about an extremely large footprint of carbon-emitting vehicles in a relatively compact metro such as Austin. And the largest concern is how many more vehicles/much more growth will be added to the metro in the next 3-5 years, added to an absolutely overwhelmed local road/freeway grid. Keep in mind this is in a metro with essentially no viable mass transit alternative whatsoever, existing, or in the works.
There is simply no getting around this issue....this is something that impacts us everyday, as we are a metro that "lives" in our cars, same as California and much of the sunbelt. And, to sum, this is a Quality of Life issue, that can impact the attractiveness of Austin as a whole per future growth. Much has been made about how forward thinking and "smart" Austin is. When Austin gets so congested and polluted that the EPA considered placing it in non-attainment mode, and the state governor recommended the same, placing the city in the same kitbag as Houston and DFW, some would reconsider how forward thinking and "different" Austin really is.
Beyond any "factoid" that can be debated, the main concern is the direction Austin is going in. It has, in reality, had great difficulty absorbing the huge growth vector that came through in the last 10-15 years. The roads are saturated. Ground-level smog is at last becoming a concern, if not full-fledged yet. With the state/local funding very compromised now, and build-out for transport infratructure a problem in good times, what can we expect in the near-mid future?
Transport infrastructure and air pollution SHOULD be the biggest concern of anyone who cares about the Austin metro, and plans to live here for a good stretch of time.
This is a very small forum, which less than a handful of people will read. The issue should be front in center in our papers, local cable, public forums all over the city,
and local TV stations. I can guarantee, if the automobile growth vector continues to increase like it has, it will be, by default.
I did find that we squeaked by the attainment readings in Oct., but just barely. The EPA is currently seriously debating raising their measurement standards soon, which could very likely put us in non-attainment per next years' readings, especially if we have the typical yearly growth in vehicles. This is an issue that will not go away,
and which must be dealt with in a serious way, per a complete overhaul of our transportation grid, mass transit options, and collective Mindset/Zeitgiest regarding how we get around.
CAPCOG's(Capital Area Council of Governments) account of the Ozone issues is as follows....keep in mind this is a moving target, with the future bar(standards) almost certainly to be set higher in the near future, and with a vector of automobile/CO emission growth absolutely certain to increase markedly as well....
"As the 2009 ozone season (Apr. 1 – Oct. 31) comes to a close, monitored ozone levels during the past two months have been low enough to move the three-year average for the region back into the attainment category. However, recent news from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicates that changes are underway in the federal standard that may put the region back into the position of facing a nonattainment designation.
Over the past eight years, local governments in the five-county Austin Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area have engaged in substantial air quality planning activities under the coordination of the Central Texas Clean Air Coalition to achieve compliance with the federal ground-level ozone standard. The most recent efforts, the Early Action Compact and the 8-hour Ozone Flex Program, have proven successful in reducing ozone levels measured at local air quality monitors.
Efforts were redoubled during the 2009 ozone season in an initiative known as the Big Push to accomplish sufficient emission reductions to bring the three-year average down to a level meeting the 2008 ozone standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb). Local governments, industrial facilities, Clean Air Partners, and citizens who committed to become “Ozone Action Heroes” have all contributed to the reduction in emissions during this critical ozone season. These efforts appear to have been successful, as indicated on the attached monitoring data chart showing lower ozone levels than usually experienced during the peak of the season.
In a new challenge, however, EPA has recently announced that they have been reevaluating the ozone standard based on an analysis of health impacts studies and recommendations from science advisory committees. EPA plans to make a proposal in Dec. of this year to change the ozone standard to a more stringent level, likely to be somewhere between 60 to 70 ppb. It is probable that the change will again put the area in jeopardy of being designated nonattainment. Such a designation brings with it increased financial burdens to local businesses and restrictions on industrial and transportation system growth."
Last, but certainly not least, is the Oak Grove coal-fired power plant currently under construction, by Luminant, in Robertson County, of which Austin is very much downwind, 100 miles SW of the same.
The plant, as soon as it begins operating, will be among the highest polluting power plants in the USA, spewing Shanghai-like toxins directly downwind to the Austin metro.
Before I even get into the details regarding the pollution it will spew over Austin, realize that Robertson County folks were largely against the plant, being in a "ground zero"
location
Based on EPA average annual auto emissions, the two proposed plants will emit an amount of nitrogen oxide equivalent to over 470,000 automobiles. Oak Grove alone would produce the smog equivalent of 350,000 automobiles. Nitrogen Oxide is the chemical that becomes smog.
It will be the LARGEST EMITTER of mercury of any power plant in the nation - beginning on the first day of operation.
It would burn over 2½ million pounds of lignite each HOUR, twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week.
The concern is how close this plant is to Austin, and that, especially during windy days, the collective plume would blow directly downwind over Austin, per the above map.
The first of the two plants has been constructed, and will be firing-up early this year.
Per Will Wynn..
...."Years of hard work, tens of millions of dollars invested, in partnership with the TCEQ, would all be wiped out with a single power plant," said Austin Mayor Will Wynn, who testified before the commission as chairman of the Central Texas Clean Air Coalition, which is made up of elected officials from across Central Texas.....
Keep in mind that this is in addition to the toxic spew we are already breathing from Austin Energy's local power plants, the largest single polluting source in the Austin metro.....
1. Toxins: In 2007 our plants released 88,773,103 pounds of toxic air pollutants.
2. Asthma: According to the NRDC's "Clean Air Task Force," our plant's pollution causes about 1,030 new asthma cases every year.
3. Children: According to Physicians for Social Responsibility, local emissions "damage cardiovascular and respiratory health and threaten healthy child development." Trish O'Day (MSN, RN, CNS) (Clinical Instructor in Public Health Nursing at UT Austin) spoke out about this at the Sept. 23rd Energy Town Hall Meeting.
4. Early Deaths: According to Environment Texas our plant's pollution causes about 44 deaths per year, according to the NRDC our plant's pollution causes about 50 deaths per year
To sum, between the overwhelming amount of auto emissions in our metro, Austin Energy's plants, and the two new plants soon to be operating 100 miles upwind of Austin, we have quite a bit to be concerned about.....
I am not arguing with the sources, per say, but just some of the off-hand statements:
Quote:
same with radon in homes, which has the same "sleepy" effect per lung/brain oxygen levels, and toxins which clog the same pathways, such as CO and others.....
Radon is almost a non-existent issue in central Texas, and CO levels are no where near anything that can affect health at all....levels would have to increase 100 or 1000 fold to become an individual health issue. CO also has absolutely nothing to do with smog.
There are several others, but that was just the last one I noticed. The ozone standards have never been rolled back or lessened, regardless of administration. The rate of tightening may have changed, but it has always been a tightening. Spin Drs. would have you believe that the air pollution rules are being sacked, but not near the case.
Smog in cities such as Austin are almost completely due to automobiles. In the industrial cities, such as Houston, there has been marked improvement due to industrial controls. Austin will increase due to increasing population and no real significant increase in automobile emissions. The power plants will almost certainly have no significant impact on our smog, but it is much easier to blame an entity rather than the real culprits - ourselves.
It can also be said, though, that the mobile source air toxics (MSATs - benzene, diesel particulate matter, acrolein, and others) have been and will see additional very significant reductions, mostly due to fuel formulation. Ozone is localized and non-persistent, as opposed to the the MSATs, and it dissipates rapidly once the components of its formation are removed. There are a lot of ways to avoid ozone, as opposed to MSATs, since ozone does not 'travel' to indoors locations (the lack of sunlight results in its decomposition).
There are a lot of other aspects to discuss, but be aware that 'does not have a vested interest' is not necessarily a true statement, either. Everyone has an agenda, and many of these 'grassroots' groups are well funded. Yes, the air in Austin will get worse, almost certainly, in regards to ozone. In other aspects, it will get better. Mass transit is a good solution, but don't be surprised if a bunch of large buses running around empty don't solve the situation, and it is not the only answer. Changes in traffic patterns (work at home/city sub-centers) are also very effective and possibly better solutions, as well.
I will be the first to admit that I'm not an environmental scientist, but am very much a concerned citizen. If any points were off per stats/facts, please correct me.
I think the main point is that we ALL should be concerned about the air we breathe, and the incredibly overburdened roads, which, by virtue of sheer agravation, if nothing else, impact our quality of life in a daily sense.
As Austin, and all of Texas continues to grow, our waste products will mount as well, man-made and natural. Growth is not an unmitigated good, and has costs, and many "externalities" that never get mentioned in the "Chamber of Commerce"-type commentary usually connected to Austin AND Texas' growth. Austin, being the fastest growing metro in the US, will bear much of these 'externalities" that are rarely mentioned, but daily experienced.....
Now, let me deal with several of YOUR comments(BTW, thank you TW, for responding, and lets both treat this as a joint effort in trying to get to the crux of the concern)......
You said CO levels from car emissions would have to increase 100-1000 fold to trigger concerns...simple thought experiment....just imagine a doubling of Austin's auto emissions...I take your def of fold to mean 1000X....could you seriously mean multiplying our car emissions 100-1000 times? I mean, just a doubling would choke the area. 7x the vehicles would place a DFW/Houston emissions footprint on the far smaller Austin metro. Anything over 11X would give us Mexico City air, even without a bowl of mountains to contain the smog.
Second, there are far more pollutants in car exhaust than CO. The "biggies" are as follows:
Nitrogen dioxide
Toxic by inhalation and can cause adverse health effects at low levels over a long period. It can contribute to acid rain and eutrophication in coastal waters.
Sulfur dioxide
Can cause pulmonary and respiratory distress and acidification of waterways.
Particulate matter
This is basically soot - it's most apparent effect is reducing visibility. It impacts on breathing and respiratory systems, damages lung tissues and causes cancer. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people and animals die prematurely each year due to the health effects of inhaling particulate matter.
Benzene
A carcinogen in humans, benzene is also very toxic to aquatic life and can cause death in plants. It is a "precursor" component for formation of photochemical smog.
(BTW, car exhaust DOES create ground-level ozone(smog), but from the other elements. CO, in itself, obviously is a poison, and creates the same problems smokers obtain from use of cigarettes.)
Formaldehyde
Another known carcinogen for humans, with similar effects to many animals and birds. In an aquatic environment, formaldehyde has a half life of between a day and ten days.
Polycyclic hydrocarbons
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services states that some Polycyclic hydrocarbons may be carcinogens in humans and animals and can cause harmful effects on skin and the auto-immune system. Some recent studies have also found car exhaust can create hydrocarbon-based free radicals which can linger indefinitely. These free radicals are believed to cause lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Even with the use of catalytic converters to help break down pollutants that cause smog, it may be creating conditions for the creation of these free radicals to form.
Per particulate matter, there has been some improvement per filters and such on factory emissions, but even that has been watered-down much, and there is still massive particulate matter all over Houston and DFW. Austin is not an industrial city, so it has little particulate matter, but the two new plants 100 miles away in Robertson County will change that markedly. I posted Will Wynn's comments on those two plants, back when they were still being debated. Now, the first one will be spewing mercury, nitrous oxides, and other particulates very much close enough for concerns next year. I've pedeled 147 miles on my bike several times in one week-end last summer, so I can vouchsafe that 100 miles, especially with a strong SW wind, isn't much at all. Take a look at the stats on those new plants. They will be the largest emitters of mercury in the USA.
They will collectively be one of the largest power plants in the USA. It has already been mentioned in A-AS and the Chron that the downwind emissions from the plant could singlehandedly cause us to miss EPA compliance, and add greatly to our local smog problems. Trust me, you will be hearing plenty about it next year when they go "on-line"...
Per emissions just "blowing away"......prob is, they get regenerated every second, as cars never stop emitting them. You have 24/7 regeneration of the same, and an accumulation during the day, which is the time we are out breathing the same, in and out of cars.
Question....do "emissions" blow away in southern cal, phoenix, NYC, Chicago, DFW, Houston, and other auto heavy metros? Sure, but they are regenerated every second, and accumulate daily when the vast majority of people are out and about. Each day a new plume is generated, and very much hangs in the immediate air, creating "bad" ozone (smog)....That plume will very much hang in the air, with other particulates, through the day, reaching a daily peak around the late-afternoon rush hour.
We also get a ton of trucks that get backed up on I-35 during the day, and belch constantly when stuck in traffic, sometimes for quite a while. many of them are unregulated ones from the "Nafta Express", direct from Mexico. That particular plume of semi-soot can blow over the entire city on a windy day with the air blowing west.
Now, keep in mind, after all this is said, that:
1.) We have no viable mass transit in Austin whatsoever, including buses, and have nothing viable to implement in the near future. The one faint stab recently, the Leander "Train to Nowhere", is indicative of the same(a nowhere policy).
2.) Our growth in vehicles continues to grow unabated, and looks to continue unabated for years to come. Meanwhile, the local road structure cannot handle what we have NOW. Per the future, one can only cringe.
3.) We HAD a reputation as a green, progressive city. Many people living here now came BECAUSE of the same. Some of the nations' most stalwart spokespeople for progressive causes were located here, per Molly Ivans, Jim Hightower, and a plethora of others. Are we going to pretty much trash this heritage, and become DFW/Houston lite? Sounds like those progressive days are long gone, along with the local flavor that has largely "left the building" per the big box/retail/suburban sprawl that has eaten into the city itself as well......the temporary phenom of high-rise "condo canyons" was another symptom of the same, thankfully played out per the financial/bank issues....
One thing I know for sure....the more we discuss these issues, the more we will get to the heart of them. Frankly, at least on this forum, I don't think many are even aware of these issues, especially those relocating to the Austin metro. They SHOULD be, as they will be dealing with them 24/7 once they set up roots here.....
Come on folks.....lets get some imput from you guys here......
What do YOU think we should do about this? What CAN we do? Are you, especially those of you planning on putting down long roots here, concerned?
ITC - why do you say Franklin Texas is upwind of Austin?
It isn't.
The prevailing winds in Austin are FROM the south at all times of year.
Only during an unusual front do winds change to a direction from the north or northeast.
Our recent windstorm had winds from the WNW and NW.
Actually, I've noticed that Williamson Country is 80 miles from the plant(just two counties over). 100 miles would be to Central Austin proper. That means Round Rock, Georgetown, Pfluger, CP and the rest would be very close for comfort per that plant. 80 miles is spitting distance per toxic particulate matter. All you can do is PRAY that the winds never wift directly towards Williamson County.
Per the debates before they began building those plants, many Austin protestors seemed very concerned that the plant would wift down our way often, regardless of how the winds blow. Now, that sounds like something that Luminant mentioned at the debates(Don't worry, the winds will never blow that way often enough to worry your pretty little heads about it.)
Per acid rain, that can disperse via cloud formations that are above ground-prevailing winds as well, regardless of wind currents.....
Thanks to 35 and the Mopac, coal plant in franklin and the new one near Waco is really going to hit austin, temple,killeen downwind hard.
Do you not understand that most times of the year the wind blows in the opposite direction? I don't like pollution from coal fired plants any more than anyone else. But the wind blows FROM the south in Austin. Any pollution from a plant in Franklin will never reach Austin.
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