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Was there any truth to that, or was it just the usual political mud slinging? People are always a bit skeptical when a round of favourable stats comes out just before an election.
Was there any truth to that, or was it just the usual political mud slinging? People are always a bit skeptical when a round of favourable stats comes out just before an election.
The trend down was already well established and continued after the election. The subject line of this thread should provide some evidence.
Despite news reports quoting Seek advertisement number which we all know are likely around 80% fake Employment agency fishing adds or dupes, there is only likely about 1 job to every 6 or so unemployed people at the moment and that could be a optimistic guess.
If maybe 70% unemployed "Want" to work and are actively looking, just let those 30% long term sit on their bums doing nothing living in poverty, keep them out of the way of the 70% more motivated individuals.
Once unemployment is back down to 3-4% THEN start these "apply for 40 jobs a month" type programs which would be in a effort to boost Aus productivity.
As it stands this current government is just making a number of peoples lives more miserable with "Bring back the 90's" type employment policies.
I agree. But I wouldn't say we're in tough times, yet. Our unemployment rate is 6.4% which many European countries would give their left testicle to have. The up trend from the low in 2012 is pretty clearly defined now. My biggest concern is that as we become an economy so dependent on skills, there will be a small minority who fall through the gaps and never recover. An interesting observation: NAIRU* is between 4-5% unemployment and Australia was way under that for an extended period of time. Because of the mining boom, wages exploded but the dollar was a big wet blanket on tradeables inflation (ie the price of goods we import fell substantially. And have a look last year when the RBA kept trying to jawbone the AUD down what happened to the CPI...surprise surprise! They stopped doing that pretty quick.). Had it not been for the dollar, which Paul Keating used to refer to as the most important price in the economy, we would have had high inflation, which probably would have given the 1970's and early 1980's a run for its money. We're really returning to a more normal unemployment rate.
NAIRU = Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Basically, it's the theory that once unemployment gets so low demand for labour starts to overwhelm supply and this causes wages to rise sharply which triggers inflation.
And if you needed any more evidence that the mining boom and the employment boom is over, the Wage Price Index released by the ABS this morning shows the weakest number in the 16 years the index has been prepared. Wages are now going backwards in real terms for the first time in probably at least 20 years.
Yea fair call a over statement, "tougher" times is fair. I pretty much agree, Australia is still in a respectable position no question compared to other European nations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCC_1
NAIRU = Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Basically, it's the theory that once unemployment gets so low demand for labour starts to overwhelm supply and this causes wages to rise sharply which triggers inflation.
Definitely plenty of evidence to back this up so I Guess the Wage Price Index was somewhat predictable.
I think a rebalance of the economy was always going to happen, in fact discussed over the years in here. Booms always are followed by a bust, well you know bust is a likely over statement as is the word boom :P
I think times are changing, technology and outsourcing is replacing jobs faster than being created in developed countries, it's just government reaction to these challenges seem very 1990's.
The entire apply for 40 jobs a month policy is a joke when the jobs are simply not there for the unemployed that WANT a job ignoring those few that are happy to live in poverty on long term unemployment.
The mining boom is over. The regulatory environment discourages startups and entrepreneurs. Most of the country's wealth is sunk into extant housing: a result of incompetent governance that saw capital funnelled into non-productive speculation instead of productive enterprise.
Australia's universities -- once providing a valuable export -- are slipping fast in quality and reputation. There will be sustained, indefinite downward pressure on wages.
Australian manufacturing is dead. No research and development happens in Australia -- talented scientists and design engineers work overseas if they can. Frankly, there is no way to reverse this.
I'm just glad I got out when I could. My only worry (and it's a big one) is that I have several hundred grand tied up in an apartment in Australia -- money that I want OUT of the country before he currency drops to 70c. I've sold the place, but settlement is taking ages and each day that passes sees the dollar slide further. I'm literally losing thousands each day.
My advice to anyone with talent and potential in Australia: get out NOW. Get your savings out of $AU and into a non-toy currency. (The $AU is forecast for a long-term value of $US 0.65.) Australia is heading into a nasty, indefinite slump that will see real wealth plummet and its residents trapped unless they have off-shore assets.
If you're thinking of moving here, I suggest you keep all your assets in Sterling, Euros or $US. Then you'll benefit from the tanking economy and it might even make real estate affordable. Do NOT buy more $AU than you have to.
Australia is in a bad, bad way, with no end in sight. As for me, if the dollar teeters on long enough for me to get my money out before it loses twenty percent of its value, I'll be a happy camper and won't need to care anymore.
The mining boom is over. The regulatory environment discourages startups and entrepreneurs. Most of the country's wealth is sunk into extant housing: a result of incompetent governance that saw capital funnelled into non-productive speculation instead of productive enterprise.
Australia's universities -- once providing a valuable export -- are slipping fast in quality and reputation. There will be sustained, indefinite downward pressure on wages.
Australian manufacturing is dead. No research and development happens in Australia -- talented scientists and design engineers work overseas if they can. Frankly, there is no way to reverse this.
I'm just glad I got out when I could. My only worry (and it's a big one) is that I have several hundred grand tied up in an apartment in Australia -- money that I want OUT of the country before he currency drops to 70c. I've sold the place, but settlement is taking ages and each day that passes sees the dollar slide further. I'm literally losing thousands each day.
My advice to anyone with talent and potential in Australia: get out NOW. Get your savings out of $AU and into a non-toy currency. (The $AU is forecast for a long-term value of $US 0.65.) Australia is heading into a nasty, indefinite slump that will see real wealth plummet and its residents trapped unless they have off-shore assets.
If you're thinking of moving here, I suggest you keep all your assets in Sterling, Euros or $US. Then you'll benefit from the tanking economy and it might even make real estate affordable. Do NOT buy more $AU than you have to.
Australia is in a bad, bad way, with no end in sight. As for me, if the dollar teeters on long enough for me to get my money out before it loses twenty percent of its value, I'll be a happy camper and won't need to care anymore.
Vale, Australia.
The worlds ultimate toy currency are USD, their are very good reasons why the AUD has been stubbornly high for a long time (I for one would like to see it come down).
Still I agree with you in part, especially about the quality of university education and lack of R and D that happens in the country, and yes I would never invest in Australian property beyond the house I live in (Rental Returns are terrible), and yes the mining boom money could have been much better spent, both sides of politics are to blame for that.
Don't worry about the extended settlement period too much, lots of people run into the same problem.
As for unemployment one would have to wonder if the ABS figure has any relevance at all.
Last edited by danielsa1775; 09-14-2014 at 04:31 AM..
The mining boom is over. The regulatory environment discourages startups and entrepreneurs. Most of the country's wealth is sunk into extant housing: a result of incompetent governance that saw capital funnelled into non-productive speculation instead of productive enterprise.
Australia's universities -- once providing a valuable export -- are slipping fast in quality and reputation. There will be sustained, indefinite downward pressure on wages.
Australian manufacturing is dead. No research and development happens in Australia -- talented scientists and design engineers work overseas if they can. Frankly, there is no way to reverse this.
I'm just glad I got out when I could. My only worry (and it's a big one) is that I have several hundred grand tied up in an apartment in Australia -- money that I want OUT of the country before he currency drops to 70c. I've sold the place, but settlement is taking ages and each day that passes sees the dollar slide further. I'm literally losing thousands each day.
My advice to anyone with talent and potential in Australia: get out NOW. Get your savings out of $AU and into a non-toy currency. (The $AU is forecast for a long-term value of $US 0.65.) Australia is heading into a nasty, indefinite slump that will see real wealth plummet and its residents trapped unless they have off-shore assets.
If you're thinking of moving here, I suggest you keep all your assets in Sterling, Euros or $US. Then you'll benefit from the tanking economy and it might even make real estate affordable. Do NOT buy more $AU than you have to.
Australia is in a bad, bad way, with no end in sight. As for me, if the dollar teeters on long enough for me to get my money out before it loses twenty percent of its value, I'll be a happy camper and won't need to care anymore.
Vale, Australia.
Yep, the sky is falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The mining "boom" is over and the days of a massively overvalued AUD it caused are coming to an end...and many are more than happy to see the end of both. The AUD at $US 0.65? Maybe. That would certainly be an earnings bonanza and a pretty strong stimulus for a lot of industries, including education.
"Australia's universities -- once providing a valuable export -- " huh, they still do provide valuable exports. AFAIK the only market to have really cooled is India which grew very quickly and then cooled off just as quickly a few years ago.
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