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I'm not sure what happened, but somewhere down the line "autonomous cars" got confused with "ride sharing" and "electric".
I know somebody out there knows somebody who knows some kooky millennial who lives above a coffee shop, works from home using just an iPad, and exclusively uses Uber and a bike sharing service to get to a sandwich shop twice a week to eat avocado toast and plans on never owing a home or having kids...so naturally that means everybody's now doing that. And in that demographic autonomous ridesharing will be a huge hit.
However the reality is that guy is actually a rare minority, and he and his gene pool will die out and only the procreating types who live in suburbs with 3 row seating SUVs will multiply. Nobody takes their 2.5 kids to soccer games and play dates using Uber. In fact, they don't even buy the cheapest SUV. Cost per mile is not a factor ever discussed in any car buying equation spoken by average people. It's actually the opposite. They want a German 3 row seating SUV that uses premium gas.
Seriously, despite all the anecdotes the only thing people are actually using Uber for is getting to and from the airport and going bar hopping. Lets not pretend life actually changed much. Its just a cheaper taxi cab.
So back to the subject of autonomous vehicles themselves.
Autonomous vehicles are coming because everybody wants them and a lot of money is being spent on it. People who think they don't want them will want them when they realize how freaking awesome it is.
They won't ever be required. A lot of states don't even require motorcycle helmets, so its inconceivable people would just go along with not driving manually at all. Any politician who pitches that idea can forget about their political party ever winning another election ever again. You'd have better luck outlawing guns.
Autonomy will always require human intervention. We have enough natural disasters on a weekly basis to remind people that well marked infrastructure doesn't always stay that way. Try driving an autonomous car in Puerto Rico right now.
Autonomous cars are just cruise control on steroids. I'm totally fine with driving and usually look forward to it. Some days I just want to leave the sunshade in the front windshield and watch a movie because I'm not in the driving mood. The days of being able to do that are around the corner.
The days of snapping your finger and the car comes up to you like a dog are so far in the future, it'll be more probable we'd be nuked back into an age where our economy will be based on the fur trade.
I don't think autonomous cars will be for sale to consumers for decades. Currently these companies spends a fortune to insure them against potential lawsuits. They also spend an even larger portion on the R&D, lobbying, and marketing the tech that any company who wins this battle will be looking to pass the cost of all of this to other companies and then down to the consumers.
There's no chance that a person even a millionaire can afford to own one because no insurance company will back you and it hasn't even been giving a license to operate without the government approval.
I don't think autonomous cars will be for sale to consumers for decades. Currently these companies spends a fortune to insure them against potential lawsuits. They also spend an even larger portion on the R&D, lobbying, and marketing the tech that any company who wins this battle will be looking to pass the cost of all of this to other companies and then down to the consumers.
There's no chance that a person even a millionaire can afford to own one because no insurance company will back you and it hasn't even been giving a license to operate without the government approval.
We're looking at 2 decades+ of work.
Looks to be a lot sooner than that:
Volkswagen expects first self driving cars on the market by 2019
Johann Jungwirth, Volkswagen’s appointed head of Digitalization Strategy, expects the first self-driving cars to appear on the market by 2019. He did not claim that these would be Volkswagen models.
Source: Focus, 2016-04-23
GM: Autononomous cars could be deployed by 2020 or sooner
General Motor’s head of foresight and trends Richard Holman said at a confererence in Detroit that most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner.
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2016-05-10
BMW to launch autonomous iNext in 2021
At their annual shareholder meeting, BMW CEO Harald Krueger said that BMW will launch a self-driving electric vehicle, the BMW iNext, in 2021.
Source: Elektrek, 2016-05-12
Ford’s head of product development: autonomous vehicle on the market by 2020
Raj Nair, Ford’s head of product development, expects that autonomous vehicles of SAE level 4 (which means that the car needs no driver but may not be capable of driving everywhere) will hit the market by 2020.(Source: autonews, 2016-02-27)
I don't think autonomous cars will be for sale to consumers for decades. Currently these companies spends a fortune to insure them against potential lawsuits. They also spend an even larger portion on the R&D, lobbying, and marketing the tech that any company who wins this battle will be looking to pass the cost of all of this to other companies and then down to the consumers.
There's no chance that a person even a millionaire can afford to own one because no insurance company will back you and it hasn't even been giving a license to operate without the government approval.
We're looking at 2 decades+ of work.
It's actually the opposite. Insurance companies will take their chances with a glitchy robot over a distracted human any day. Humans are already terrible drivers. The robot doesn't have to be perfect, just better than a human and we've already set that bar pretty low.
Autonomous vehicles are coming because everybody wants them and a lot of money is being spent on it.
Lots of money is being spent? True. Does everybody want them? What some people want is something that probably won't exist in this century. Will they want the imperfect products that might come to market in the next few decades? No, most people are not going to hand over control to a machine.
Volkswagen expects first self driving cars on the market by 2019
Johann Jungwirth, Volkswagen’s appointed head of Digitalization Strategy, expects the first self-driving cars to appear on the market by 2019. He did not claim that these would be Volkswagen models.
Source: Focus, 2016-04-23
GM: Autononomous cars could be deployed by 2020 or sooner
General Motor’s head of foresight and trends Richard Holman said at a confererence in Detroit that most industry participants now think that self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 or sooner.
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2016-05-10
BMW to launch autonomous iNext in 2021
At their annual shareholder meeting, BMW CEO Harald Krueger said that BMW will launch a self-driving electric vehicle, the BMW iNext, in 2021.
Source: Elektrek, 2016-05-12
Ford’s head of product development: autonomous vehicle on the market by 2020
Raj Nair, Ford’s head of product development, expects that autonomous vehicles of SAE level 4 (which means that the car needs no driver but may not be capable of driving everywhere) will hit the market by 2020.(Source: autonews, 2016-02-27)
And those "predictions" are going to draw a big smile from Suburban Suzie Soccermom, who hasn't been cautioned against a naïve belief that those improvements will be sufficient to allow "seamless" start-to-finish travel for her unique lifestyle -- no more hauling her mother-in-law to the doctor every month; it will also draw a cheer from her progeny who would rather text than drive.
But the reality is that autonomous vehicles, like every other major improvement in our lifestyles, are likely to be phased in incrementally; probably limited to neighborhoods with a dominant and stable pattern of streets, and/or the most heavily-used highways. As the use increases and the overhead costs are spread over a larger customer base, the price will come down and options and patronage will grow, but for the short term, Susie's likely to be disappointed, especially if what's been promised "in five years" turns into eight, then ten, then .....
Well okay, I've never actually checked what it would cost me to commute by Uber, so I just did. The UberX fare estimate for my commute comes to $1.04-$1.40 per mile. That's way, way more than it costs me to drive. On top of that I'd have the headache of ordering a ride twice a day and inevitably doing some waiting. To me that's far from "great".
My car is waiting for me and is ready to go when I am. I can stop at the grocery on the way home, and there's no extra fee from my car for waiting. There's no fee, nor does it leave, if I'm running a little late. As long as I have a place to park for no cost, driving my own car is a better solution for me.
It's actually the opposite. Insurance companies will take their chances with a glitchy robot over a distracted human any day. Humans are already terrible drivers. The robot doesn't have to be perfect, just better than a human and we've already set that bar pretty low.
I won't be surprised if the issue of liability ends up being a huge stumbling block for this technology. Manufacturers will not want to take on the responsibility for individual traffic accidents. So then every car will be sold with a disclaimer that the human in the driver's seat is ultimately responsible, which takes away so much of the attraction and will turn many people off.
Lots of money is being spent? True. Does everybody want them? What some people want is something that probably won't exist in this century. Will they want the imperfect products that might come to market in the next few decades? No, most people are not going to hand over control to a machine.
Of course they want them, even if they don’t know it yet.
When smartphones came out, they were ridiculed by everybody who wasn’t an early adopter. Now everybody has one. Useful things get adopted quickly.
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