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Short of Agenda 2030 type diktats, significant advances in battery technology, or a significant energy crisis, the pure EV will never "take off". I could see the latter happening in my lifetime, and possibly as early as the mid 2020s.
I think it will depend on the market. For each market, it will depend on EV production / purchase % of total cars bought as well as government policies. I think the market would have to be going around 50% EV at the time. At that time the continuing growth of EVs will be obvious to most and purchases of ICE vehicles will slow down (due to people waiting). Also many governments have and eventually will ban restrict ICE sales due to pollution health concerns (and global warming). But they will wait to see EV supply is there.
In Norway this could happen in like 5 years. In the U.S., probably between 10 and 15.
I put forward my wager again. This will not happen in the US in 10-15 years...
Not in your lifetime. There is insufficient electrical infrastructure to support the charging of all the electric cars needed to replace the gasoline vehicles.
EVs should reduce both tailpipe emissions (obviously) and particulate matter (at least somewhat).
Again, ignore climate change issue, governments still will move to limit vehicles that make the air more dirty if an alternative is available. So obviously cheap enough EVs will need to be available (or projected to be) before bans can have any merit.
But if you take some country that puts some value on that public health point, if in 2025 they see EVs are getting cheap enough that they estimate by 2030 will be readily accessible for most of the public, they may institute a ban on gas vehicles inside urban areas by 2030. So in 2025, when the ban is declared (though not active for another 5 years), people buying cars will already take that future ban into account.
I don't know when or how many places will do it, but likely China (already doing this) and northern European places to start.
But if you take some country that puts some value on that public health point, if in 2025 they see EVs are getting cheap enough that they estimate by 2030 will be readily accessible for most of the public, they may institute a ban on gas vehicles inside urban areas by 2030.
That's a lot of people to throw into the market for a new vehicle all at once, and a lot of vehicles that will have to be disposed of at the same time. Don't see it happening quite like that.
That single unreliable manufacturer happens to be the biggest seller of EVs. The Kona and newest Leaf just came out.
I didn’t state the entire category was unreliable. I stated that an EV drivetrain itself doesn’t guarantee reliability as the largest maker of EVs are also among the worst in reliability.
Just because something doesn’t have moving parts doesn’t make it simple.
Actually when talking about electric drive trains in comparison to ICE, you stated that "they aren’t reliable at all". Which is absolutely false. You cherrypicked one manufacturer to make a general statement about an entire category. Education goes a long way (as you implied).
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