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They'll dedicate their whole days to car ownership in places like BK or Queens or Roxbury. They'll happily wait hours in their seats to secure an unpaid spot on the street, they don't have anything better to do.
Then what are you going to with all the spots that are paid for? They need chargers too.
People drive up, gas up, and leave--because petrol comes out of the ground already charged. They're not going to wait half an hour to charge; people needing to do same certainly aren't going to wait behind those for that.
And then there's that electric grid that needs to be double-sized in order to compensate for that.
Do you believe that people in Queens or Roxbury refuel their cars via curbside pumps at all the parking spaces?
I'm saying that they don't, but I don't know if I can convince you otherwise. They generally go to gas stations and the like and refuel their cars when necessary rather than every time they park. This is similar to how fast charging stations work, and while the speeds for fast charging and the median range is just a bit short of most ICE vehicles, it's at this point a pretty small gap.
There's also no rationale for why the electric grid would need to be "double-sized" unless you think there's a massive population boom with commensurate miles traveled to go with it, but then that would mean needing to greatly increase the amount of fuel used as well if there is no transition to EVs.
What is a reasonable critique is that for at least the next couple of years, a new EV won't be as good of an economic proposition than a new similar hybrid or ICE vehicle if one doesn't have a dedicated place to charge while parked overnight or at work/school, because there is no convenience or lower operation costs to weigh in favor of a new EV that will have a purchase price that is generally as costly if not more so than an equivalent ICE vehicle or hybrid and there may actually be a substantial inconvenience if all charging has to be done via dedicated trips. However, none of those factors are likely to hold true in the next several years and almost certainly not by the time there's any particularly notable ramp up in electricity demand due to EVs.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-12-2021 at 12:56 PM..
Do you believe that people in Queens or Roxbury refuel their cars via curbside pumps at all the parking spaces?
I'm saying that they don't, but I don't know if I can convince you otherwise. They generally go to gas stations and the like and refuel their cars when necessary rather than every time they park. This is similar to how fast charging stations work, and while the speeds for fast charging and the median range is just a bit short of most ICE vehicles, it's at this point a pretty small gap.
There's also no rationale for why the electric grid would need to be "double-sized" unless you think there's a massive population boom with commensurate miles traveled to go with it, but then that would mean needing to greatly increase the amount of fuel used as well if there is no transition to EVs.
What is a reasonable critique is that for at least the next couple of years, a new EV won't be as good of an economic proposition than a new similar hybrid or ICE vehicle if one doesn't have a dedicated place to charge while parked overnight or at work/school, because there is no convenience or lower operation costs to weigh in favor of a new EV that will have a purchase price that is generally as costly if not more so than an equivalent ICE vehicle or hybrid and there may actually be a substantial inconvenience if all charging has to be done via dedicated trips. However, none of those factors are likely to hold true in the next several years and almost certainly not by the time there's any particularly notable ramp up in electricity demand due to EVs.
1. EVs don't recharge as fast as ICEs refuel. As such, persuading mass EV owners to wait around that much longer for retail outlets is a deal breaker. That's why they need access to the same kinds of home localized, off retail charging capability. That last mile.
2. Like telecom networks have something called "bandwidth," electric grids have something called "capacity." It's just basic physics. Just like a 20-amp circuit isn't going to run as long on a wire under 12 gauge.
The generation, and transmission, and substations, stepdown transformers, all of that, can't carry EVs amounting to anywhere over an infinitesimal fraction of the number of cars currently on the road. You're free to try that.
1. EVs don't recharge as fast as ICEs refuel. As such, persuading mass EV owners to wait around that much longer for retail outlets is a deal breaker. That's why they need access to the same kinds of home localized, off retail charging capability. That last mile.
2. Like telecom networks have something called "bandwidth," electric grids have something called "capacity." It's just basic physics. Just like a 20-amp circuit isn't going to run as long on a wire under 12 gauge.
The generation, and transmission, and substations, stepdown transformers, all of that, can't carry EVs amounting to anywhere over an infinitesimal fraction of the number of cars currently on the road. You're free to try that.
1. EVs don't *currently* recharge as fast as ICEs refuel. That is unlikely to be much of an issue in the future given that fast charging rates are among the fastest improving metrics for EVs. However, if you want to talk about just the next few years, it is true that there is a twenty minute or longer equivalent wait at fast charging stations for current EVs. For those who have a place to charge while parking (at home or at work), that's weighed against the convenience of charging where you park such that you seldom if ever having to go out of your way at all to refuel as well as lower operating expenses, but that obviously doesn't apply to those who do not have that option. However, the majority of households in the US are likely able to get the benefits of that which makes the last mile much easier because that last mile is the mile you take to go home or go to work.
2. Your basic physics is off. The most glaring issue you have is assuming the grid would need to double in size to accommodate the miles traveled converting from ICE to EVs. Your basic math and understanding of physics is off so you need a bit of help with that. Go ahead and try writing down your steps for getting there, because it's just about guaranteed that you've got some pretty basic physics wrong.
On top of that, you might have issues understanding the difference between capacity and usage or how long the transition period would be for adding additional capacity. You also are having a difficult time understanding the scale of electrical generation and distribution that actually would need to happen and how the US has historically added to the grid, but you really need to first go back to how your basic understanding of physics is off in the first place if you're talking about doubling the size of the grid.
You might try watching the video posted to figure out where you went wrong with the math, but I can help you with it if you lay out how you arrived at needing double the generation capacity for equivalent driver miles of ICE vehicles.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-12-2021 at 03:25 PM..
1. EVs don't *currently* recharge as fast as ICEs refuel. That is unlikely to be much of an issue in the future given that fast charging rates are among the fastest improving metrics for EVs. However, if you want to talk about just the next few years, it is true that there is a twenty minute or longer equivalent wait at fast charging stations. That's offset for those who have a place to charge while parking (at home or at work) where what you get is cheaper operating expenses and the convenience of seldom if ever having to go out of your way at all to refuel, but that obviously doesn't apply to those who do not have that luxury. The majority of households in the US are likely able to get the benefits of that which makes the last mile much easier because that last mile is the mile you take to go home or go to work.
Worth mentioning is that DC fast charging should only be used occasionally, and not for routine charging. Someone who can't charge at home and only relies on fast charging, will likely have shortened battery life. I read somewhere that even Tesla reduces the charging speed if they detect an owner is overusing superchargers.
Worth mentioning is that DC fast charging should only be used occasionally, and not for routine charging. Someone who can't charge at home and only relies on fast charging, will likely have shortened battery life. I read somewhere that even Tesla reduces the charging speed if they detect an owner is overusing superchargers.
Also worth mentioning that batteries come with warranties where significantly shortened battery lifes are covered, that the median range has been increasing a lot so there's more of a reserve you can reduce from and still have a pretty usable vehicle, and that the lifecycles for EV batteries appear to keep getting longer and longer.
I do think that for the next few years, if you don't have a place to charge either at home or at work/school (or wherever you regularly park for at least a few hours a week) at a relatively low cost, then EVs aren't going to give you any time or financial savings compared to a similar ICE or hybrid.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-12-2021 at 03:38 PM..
Worth mentioning is that DC fast charging should only be used occasionally, and not for routine charging. Someone who can't charge at home and only relies on fast charging, will likely have shortened battery life. I read somewhere that even Tesla reduces the charging speed if they detect an owner is overusing superchargers.
Not true - There is a company that owns a fleet of Tesla vehicles (Tesloop) - they relay only on Superchargers - for example, they have one (called Deuxy) - link - that has over 300K miles, is on its original battery after charging approx 4x a day fast charging for last 2 years - it does about 17K miles a month.
BTW - You did not read that about reduced charging speed somewhere because it is incorrect. Why would Tesla want a vehicle to take longer to not open up a charger for someone else - they will charge you if you overstay after fully charged.
Not true - There is a company that owns a fleet of Tesla vehicles (Tesloop) - they relay only on Superchargers - for example, they have one (called Deuxy) - link - that has over 300K miles, is on its original battery after charging approx 4x a day fast charging for last 2 years - it does about 17K miles a month.
BTW - You did not read that about reduced charging speed somewhere because it is incorrect. Why would Tesla want a vehicle to take longer to not open up a charger for someone else - they will charge you if you overstay after fully charged.
Yes, I did read about it. The article is from 2017, so I have no idea if they have since changed their policy.
1. EVs don't *currently* recharge as fast as ICEs refuel. That is unlikely to be much of an issue in the future given that fast charging rates are among the fastest improving metrics for EVs. However, if you want to talk about just the next few years, it is true that there is a twenty minute or longer equivalent wait at fast charging stations for current EVs. For those who have a place to charge while parking (at home or at work), that's weighed against the convenience of charging where you park such that you seldom if ever having to go out of your way at all to refuel as well as lower operating expenses, but that obviously doesn't apply to those who do not have that option. However, the majority of households in the US are likely able to get the benefits of that which makes the last mile much easier because that last mile is the mile you take to go home or go to work.
2. Your basic physics is off. The most glaring issue you have is assuming the grid would need to double in size to accommodate the miles traveled converting from ICE to EVs. Your basic math and understanding of physics is off so you need a bit of help with that. Go ahead and try writing down your steps for getting there, because it's just about guaranteed that you've got some pretty basic physics wrong.
On top of that, you might have issues understanding the difference between capacity and usage or how long the transition period would be for adding additional capacity. You also are having a difficult time understanding the scale of electrical generation and distribution that actually would need to happen and how the US has historically added to the grid, but you really need to first go back to how your basic understanding of physics is off in the first place if you're talking about doubling the size of the grid.
You might try watching the video posted to figure out where you went wrong with the math, but I can help you with it if you lay out how you arrived at needing double the generation capacity for equivalent driver miles of ICE vehicles.
Seeing as I roughly estimated the physics and logistics as follows in a parallel thread that you appear to have read...:
1. Liquid gasoline that starts out of the ground already energized in its base form. Yea even stored readily energized in its refined form. Transported anywhere you can roll a container.
2. Americans use about 400 million gallons of gasoline per day, mostly for cars. A gallon of gas is equivalent to about 33.56 kWh for an EV.
The U.S. consumes about 10,958,904,110 kWh of electricity per day. If--liberally--200 million gallons was replaced by EV, that's about 6.7 billion kWh that needs to be newly distributed throughout the U.S. wherever EV occurs. Maybe 61 percent of the existing capacity needs to be added...everywhere.
...it's probably in your court here, and you can show the reading audience how you'd argue the numbers and nature differently.
Seeing as I roughly estimated the physics and logistics as follows from a parallel thread that you appear to have read...:
1. Liquid gasoline that starts out of the ground already energized in its base form. Yea even stored readily energized in its refined form. Transported anywhere you can roll a container.
2. American use about 400 million gallons of gasoline per day, mostly for cars. A gallon of gas is equivalent to about 33.56 kWh for an EV.
The U.S. consumes about 10,958,904,110 kWh of electricity per day. If--liberally--200 million gallons was replaced by EV, that's about 6.7 billion kWh that needs to be newly distributed throughout the U.S. wherever EV occurs. Maybe 61 percent of the existing capacity needs to be added...everywhere.
...it's probably in your court here, and you can show the reading audience how you'd argue differently.
So I think the equivalence you assert here is wrong. The Tesla Model Y Long Range (AWD), for example, has a 75kWh battery, and a range of 250 miles. A similar CUV gets about 32MPG, and so using this Tesla Model Y Long Range example:
250 miles / (32 miles/gal) ~ 7.8 gallons, and
75kWh / 7.8 gallons ~ 9.6 kWh/gal
You might want to watch the video from Engineering Explained that I posted to start this thread off.
So I think the equivalence you assert here is wrong. The Tesla Model Y Long Range (AWD), for example, has a 75kWh battery, and a range of 250 miles. A similar CUV gets about 32MPG, and so using this Tesla Model Y Long Range example:
250 miles / (32 miles/gal) ~ 7.8 gallons, and
75kWh / 7.8 gallons ~ 9.6 kWh/gal
You might want to watch the video from Engineering Explained that I posted to start this thread off.
Okay. So the existing grid needs to be built out about only 20% larger than it is now even where it's urbanized and semi-urbanized already. Nevermind the countryside.
If only even half the existing transportation burden is converted.
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