Baltimore Changing (middle-class, section 8, 2013)

[baltplanner]

Cities are dynamic environments and reinvent themselves constantly over time. In Baltimore a long and tragic history of poverty, disinvestment, and racial tension is slowly being overcome. Both our economy and our population are slowly but steadily growing and changing in composition. Here are some highlights:

Population changes between 2010 and 2012
Source:http://www.census.gov/popest/data/co...012/index.html
Take Away: The non-Hispanic white population actually increased by ~500 people. In the same time period the Hispanic population grew by ~1,500, the asian popualtion grew by ~1,000, and the Black population DECREASED by 3,000. Baltimore is shifting away from being a black and white city into a more diverse area.

Where population growth is occurring (data from 2000 to 2010)
Source:http://www.baltimorecitycouncil.com/...02000-2010.pdf
Take Away: East and West Baltimore, the most hyper segregated and blighted areas of the city are losing population the fastest while while upscale neighborhoods (Inner Harbor, Canton, Harbor East) and diverse and/ or emerging neighborhoods (Downtown, Mt. Vernon, Station North, Charles Village, Brewers Hill) continue to grow. Several neighborhoods have already become stable (Upper Fell Point, Federal Hill, Butchers Hill) and have gained little if at all.

Racial shifts by location (data from 2000 to 2010)
Source:Zoomable map: 2000 to 2010 demographic changes
Take Away: Hyper segregation remains persistent in many areas. Some neighborhoods adjacent to already stable or "attractive" areas are slowly shifitng away form being majority black. Other traditionally white working class areas are seeing an increase in their black populations, most of which I'm assuming are upwardly mobile or displaced people moving out of less attractive areas in the city.

Economic growth and changes in the economic base
Sources: Baltimore Area Employment
Personal Income in the 2000s: Top and Bottom Ten Metropolitan Areas | Newgeography.com
Take Away: The manufacturing industry has been, and continues to be, replaced by high wage, high skill jobs primarily in medicine, professional/ business services, engineer/ consulting services, and finance. This is evidenced in our exceptional growth in median income. As these people continue to move into the city we can expect a change in city tax revenues, impacting the government's ability to reinvest in infrastructure and social programs, and a change in the general culture of the area. On a personal note I love how Baltimore is completely unpretentious and I hope that those coming here will embrace that heritage.

[kharing]

Thanks for posting this! I was trying to look at the maps early today. Great features....especially the dual maps that show the changes since 2000. Serious rep on this!

[KodeBlue]

Thanks for making this thread.

[kharing]

Originally Posted by CareyNPratt

Baltimore is most certainly going through gentrification similar to DC, Brooklyn and many cities across the country. I do wish the natives stay as well. Some of the natives who are graduates from university or even the natives who are working class professionals should stay and stop moving to the surrounding counties.

I think that's happening....at least in my neighborhood. I used to be able to walk into the Dizz and sit anywhere I wanted a few years ago. Now, it's so crowded with hipsters I actually have to wait for a seat at the bar or (gasp) eat upstairs!

[baltplanner]

The city also put together an excellent spreadsheet to track neighborhood and city level demographic changes from 2000 to 2010:
Planning / 2010 Census

The University of Baltimore also maintains a development tracker map (Interactive Map | Central Maryland Development Tracker) which will show you where in the city development permit activity is going on.

[King_of_DC]

Originally Posted by baltplanner

Population changes between 2010 and 2012
Source:County Characteristics: Vintage 2012 - U.S Census Bureau
Take Away: The non-Hispanic white population actually increased by ~500 people. In the same time period the Hispanic population grew by ~1,500, the asian popualtion grew by ~1,000, and the Black population DECREASED by 3,000. Baltimore is shifting away from being a black and white city into a more diverse area. .

Where did the black people go?

[Infinite_heights77]

"In Baltimore a long and tragic history of poverty, disinvestment, and racial tension is slowly being overcome."

*I disagree!!! Statistical measurements and datasets do not tell all.

Originally Posted by baltplanner

Cities are dynamic environments and reinvent themselves constantly over time. In Baltimore a long and tragic history of poverty, disinvestment, and racial tension is slowly being overcome. Both our economy and our population are slowly but steadily growing and changing in composition. Here are some highlights:

Population changes between 2010 and 2012
Source:County Characteristics: Vintage 2012 - U.S Census Bureau
Take Away: The non-Hispanic white population actually increased by ~500 people. In the same time period the Hispanic population grew by ~1,500, the asian popualtion grew by ~1,000, and the Black population DECREASED by 3,000. Baltimore is shifting away from being a black and white city into a more diverse area.

Where population growth is occurring (data from 2000 to 2010)
Source:http://www.baltimorecitycouncil.com/...02000-2010.pdf
Take Away: East and West Baltimore, the most hyper segregated and blighted areas of the city are losing population the fastest while while upscale neighborhoods (Inner Harbor, Canton, Harbor East) and diverse and/ or emerging neighborhoods (Downtown, Mt. Vernon, Station North, Charles Village, Brewers Hill) continue to grow. Several neighborhoods have already become stable (Upper Fell Point, Federal Hill, Butchers Hill) and have gained little if at all.

Racial shifts by location (data from 2000 to 2010)
Source:Zoomable map: 2000 to 2010 demographic changes
Take Away: Hyper segregation remains persistent in many areas. Some neighborhoods adjacent to already stable or "attractive" areas are slowly shifitng away form being majority black. Other traditionally white working class areas are seeing an increase in their black populations, most of which I'm assuming are upwardly mobile or displaced people moving out of less attractive areas in the city.

Economic growth and changes in the economic base
Sources: Baltimore Area Employment
Personal Income in the 2000s: Top and Bottom Ten Metropolitan Areas | Newgeography.com
Take Away: The manufacturing industry has been, and continues to be, replaced by high wage, high skill jobs primarily in medicine, professional/ business services, engineer/ consulting services, and finance. This is evidenced in our exceptional growth in median income. As these people continue to move into the city we can expect a change in city tax revenues, impacting the government's ability to reinvest in infrastructure and social programs, and a change in the general culture of the area. On a personal note I love how Baltimore is completely unpretentious and I hope that those coming here will embrace that heritage.

[santafe400]

Unfortunately I feel that racism works both ways. As much as our media has publicized white on black racial prejudice, I believe that the reverse is more eminent. I'd rather be a Black man walking along Boston Street or Key Hwy. at 1 a.m., than a white/asian/latino person hanging around Fulton or Pennsylvania Ave. at 1 in the afternoon.

[baltplanner]

Joel Kotkin, one of the foremost urban researchers of our time, recently stated that:

The much-ballyhooed and self-celebrating “creative class”—a demographic group that includes not only single professionals but also well-heeled childless couples, empty nesters, and college students—occupies much of the urban space once filled by families. Increasingly, our great American cities, from New York and Chicago to Los Angeles and Seattle, are evolving into playgrounds for the rich, traps for the poor, and way stations for the ambitious young en route eventually to less congested places. (The Childless City by Joel Kotkin and Ali Modarres, City Journal Summer 2013)

This national trend is undoubtedly playing out in Baltimore. From 2000 to 2010 the city saw a 25.2% decrease in the 5-11 year age bracket and a 26.6% decrease in the 12-14 year age group and 12.5% decrease in the 15-17 age group. At the same time it experienced a 9.8% increase in the 18-24 age group and an 11.1% increase in the 25-34 age group.
Planning / 2010 Census

There’s significant evidence that child bearing households of most racial and ethnic backgrounds (excluding Hispanics) are moving out of the city and into neighboring counties faster than they’re being replaced.
http://www.baltometro.org/downloadab...mographics.pdf

My take is that many middle-class, upwardly mobile, or otherwise capable family households, like the white middle class of the 1950-1980’s are moving out to the surrounding counties for better schools, lower property taxes, lower crime rates, and a less “congested” lifestyle.
Net 8,511 people moved from Baltimore city to county from 2006 to 2010 [MAP] » Technical.ly Baltimore

Younger or otherwise childless households still hold urban amenities in a high enough value to overlook the downsides. These people require fewer social services and as such are generally a preferred migrant group by city administrators. The positive side here is that they add money to city coffers which in theory allows cities to reinvest more in social programs and infrastructure. The downside is that in many places they cause defacto displacement as they tend to cause home values to increase, pricing out poorer people who have been living in areas for a long period. In Baltimore unlike NYC, Boston, DC etc the amount of, and pervasiveness of vacancy has allowed increases in housing costs to be generally well managed city wide- focusing major housing cost increases to well contained precincts.

Supporting the exodus of family households; there has also been a significant shift in where section 8 housing vouchers are being used. Baltimore County in particular has expanded the availability of section 8 eligible properties. The underlying theory here is that poor people who grow up in mixed income communities tend to have better learning outcomes, higher rates of employment, and are less likely to enter into criminal justice system than their counterparts that grow up in areas of concentrated poverty. There is a question about how many section 8 properties can be supported in a community without eroding the existing social and economic conditions…. but that’s another conversation.

What I’m trying to say is that population growth in Baltimore City is increasingly based on “Churn” that is people moving in from outside the city, and less about people aging in place. Those who have experienced, and hold deeply seeded memories/ attitudes, about racial tension in the city (like Infinite_heights77) are becoming a less predominate demographic.

[jonjj]

Travel article on Baltimore from the Times. interesting read:

The Weekend Escape Plan - Baltimore -- New York Magazine